Analysts predict that developments in West Asia and their impact on crude oil prices will heavily influence investor sentiment in the upcoming week. Global market trends, foreign investor activity, and rupee-dollar movement will also play a role.
Crude oil prices experienced a sharp decline after US President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, easing geopolitical tensions and supply disruption fears.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) will launch Dated Brent Crude Oil (Platts) futures on April 13, offering a new hedging tool for market participants.
Analysts predict India will face oil price volatility and macroeconomic effects due to the escalating Iran crisis, though the country's oil supply chain is not yet structurally insecure.
Major paint companies in India, including Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Akzo Paints, and Kansai Nerolac, have announced price hikes ranging from 1% to 8% across various product lines, effective from mid-March to late April, in response to persistently high crude oil and gas prices.
The Indian rupee crashed to a record closing low against the US dollar due to rising global crude oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a sharp decline in early trading due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, driving crude oil prices higher. Global market bearishness and foreign fund outflows further contributed to investor unease.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
From the Sensex pack, Sun Pharma, Eternal, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank and Bajaj Finserv were among the major laggards. In contrast, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Asian Paints and Maruti were among the gainers.
S&P Global Ratings warns that Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL may face reduced profit margins due to rising crude oil prices and government pressure to maintain stable retail prices.
Indian equity markets experienced a significant downturn as geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising oil prices, and foreign fund outflows dampened investor confidence. The Sensex and Nifty both fell sharply in early trade, reflecting broader global market weakness.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
Indian benchmark equity indices experienced a significant downturn, with the Sensex plummeting over 800 points and the Nifty falling sharply, driven by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and foreign capital outflows.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato cracked nearly 7 per cent. Power Grid, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement were the other major laggards. In contrast, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to a strengthening dollar, high crude oil prices, and foreign fund outflows amid geopolitical uncertainties.
If international crude oil prices zoom past the current level of about $90 per barrel and move towards $100 and beyond, middle-class consumers are not going to keep quiet about their discomfort, points out Arun Balakrishnan, former chairman and managing director, Hindustan Petroleum.
Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.
In a statement issued by Iran's consulate in Mumbai, it said, "At present, Iran essentially has no floating crude or surplus available for international markets. The US Treasury Secretary's remarks appear aimed at reassuring buyers and managing market sentiment."
A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
Despite international crude oil rates crossing USD 100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, the Indian government plans to maintain current petrol and diesel prices, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.
US crude oil futures edged down on Tuesday after hitting an 8-week high of $82 a barrel on Monday.
Low fuel prices to help oil marketing and refining sectors but upstream players will stay under pressure.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the surge in international oil prices is a matter of grave concern and it was for the petroleum ministry to take a call on retail pricing of petroleum products.
The latest decision of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as Opec+, to boost output is being seen as an attempt to regain market share lost to the US, Brazil, and other oil producers, who have been increasing production recently.
"The prime minister is thinking of having a meeting of all political leaders and it could take place in the second week of next month," sources in the government said. While the agriculture scenario was comfortable spiralling crude oil prices in the international market was causing a concern, they said. Crude oil reached $96 a barrel mark early this month. However, it has come a notch lower now.
An oil tanker carrying Saudi crude safely reached Mumbai after crossing the war-hit Strait of Hormuz with its tracking system briefly switched off.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
This means lower losses on fuel sales by Indian oil companies and a shrinking oil subsidy bill for the government.
The real benefits can be seen when prices stabilise, preferably at levels acceptable to both consumers and producers.
Crude prices, which has become a big concern for the government fighting inflation, softened to about $104 to a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching $107 a barrel, its highest level since September 2008.
Crude oil's long price slide might be ending, feel some experts. Last Friday, the price of Brent crude, seen as a benchmark for what India uses, saw a low of $75.3 a barrel - it is now trading around $79. The fall has been nearly a third from its high seen in June, only five months earlier.
Nayara Energy, a private fuel retailer in India, has increased petrol and diesel prices following a surge in global oil prices due to Middle East tensions. This move contrasts with state-owned retailers who continue to freeze prices.
Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 a barrel in 2023, up nearly 33 per cent from the current levels, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a recent note. This is, however, lower than the peak level of nearly $127 touched earlier in 2022 as geopolitical concerns took centre stage amidrising demand. "Looking ahead, Brent oil price growth will decelerate even more in the coming quarters. "This comes even as our global oil strategist expects a rise in oil prices back to $110 a barrel by the second half of 2023.
India's crude oil imports from Russia saw a marginal decline in September, but continued to account for over one-third of the country's total oil purchases, despite US pressure to curb the trade over concerns that it supports Moscow's war effort in Ukraine. India's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 220,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year.
State-run oil-marketing companies (OMCs) are unlikely to significantly raise petrol and diesel prices despite crude oil nearing $100 a barrel, leading to potential margin pressure, while CLSA analysts project a 65 per cent upside for ONGC's stock.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil prices, and global trends will significantly influence the Indian stock market in the upcoming holiday-shortened week. Foreign investor activity and rupee movement will also be crucial.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
Indian equities on Dalal Street saw volatility as global market trends and fresh tariff concerns linked to Donald Trump impacted investor sentiment. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for March 30, 2026.
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