Ahead of Diwali festival, the Union Cabinet on Wednesday increased the dearness allowance (DA) and dearness relief by 4 per cent effective July 1, 2022, benefiting 41.85 lakh central government employees and 69.76 lakh pensioners. The additional instalment of DA and dearness relief (DR) is an increase of 4 per cent over the existing rate of 34 per cent of basic pay/pension. The combined impact on the exchequer on account of both DA and DR would be Rs 12,852.5 crore per annum, said Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur while briefing reporters about the decisions of the Union Cabinet.
The RBI's rate-setting panel MPC on Monday began its three-day deliberation amid expectations of another round of hike in benchmark interest rates to contain inflation that continues to remain above the central bank's upper tolerance level. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee after deliberations on Wednesday. Das has already indicated that there may another hike in the repo rate, though he refrained from quantifying it.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday defended the Reserve Bank's handling of the price situation, saying acting prematurely on inflation would have exerted a heavy cost on the economy and citizens. Acknowledging that the inflation target has been missed, Das said the RBI decided to support the economy by not introducing a rate hike in face of a spike in inflation. "We prevented a 'complete collapse of the economy' by keeping rates lower and stayed away from premature tightening," Das said speaking at the annual FIBAC conference of bankers in Mumbai.
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
The wholesale price-based inflation surged to more than a decade high of 14.23 per cent in November, mainly due to hardening of prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum and natural gas. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive months beginning April. Inflation in October this year was at 12.54 per cent, while in November 2020 it was at 2.29 per cent. "The high rate of inflation in November 2021, is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, food products etc as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
Retail inflation eased to 7.04 per cent in May, mainly on account of softening food and fuel prices as the government as well as the RBI stepped in to control spiralling price rise by way of duty cuts and repo rate hike. However, the inflation print stayed above the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level of 6 per cent for the fifth month in a row. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 7.79 per cent in April.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a 29-month low of 1.34 per cent in March on easing prices of manufactured products and fuel items, even though food articles turned expensive.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the country's economic growth remains a priority for the government, as inflation has come down to a manageable level. Job creation and equitable distribution of wealth remain the other focus areas, she said at India Ideas Summit. "Some of course are red-lettered (priorities), some may not be. Red-lettered ones would of course be jobs, equitable wealth distribution and making sure India is moving on the path of growth.
Benchmark BSE Sensex gained 130 points on Friday after gains in index majors Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Tata Steel ahead of the release of inflation and factory output data. Recovering from its early losses, the 30-share BSE index ended 130.18 points or 0.22 per cent higher at 59,462.78 in a range-bound trade. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 39.15 points or 0.22 per cent to close at 17,698.15.
Two-wheeler exports from India fell by 17.8 per cent to 3.65 million units in 2022-23 (FY23), according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) on Thursday. This decline is due to a rise in global inflation and the weakening of economies and currencies in key export markets of Africa, Latin America (LatAm), and South Asia. In contrast to FY23, two-wheeler exports from India jumped 35.4 per cent to 4.44 million units in 2021-22 (FY22).
The government's step could push investors to choose riskier equity, or to fall back on bank deposits, thereby negatively impacting the debt market which actually needs to grow, points out T N Ninan.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty on Friday spurted by nearly 2 per cent, propelled by heavy buying in IT, metal and financial stocks amid a rally in global markets after lower-than-expected US inflation data. A strong rupee against the US dollar and unabated foreign capital inflows further bolstered sentiment, traders said. Easing US inflation triggered speculation that the US Federal Reserve might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
Investors' wealth eroded by more than Rs 2.21 lakh crore in early trade on Wednesday, with the market witnessing a selling-off amid prospects of aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve to tackle high inflation, and sluggish global trends. In less than an hour of the start of trading on Wednesday, the key indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- were deep in the red and witnessed significant volatility, reflecting jittery investor sentiments. The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies, which is also an indicator of wealth of investors, tumbled more than Rs 2.21 lakh crore to Rs 2,84,49,727.56 crore amid the 30-share Sensex falling 564.76 points to 60,006.32 points.
Elections may be a few months away, but the government may get into election mode much earlier than that, predicts A K Bhattacharya.
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said India has ramped up the import of crude oil from Russia at discounted prices amid sanctions on Moscow as part of the country's inflation management. "In a situation where global prices were going beyond anyone's affordability, at that stage to take a very strong political decision, I respect the prime minister for his courage on this to get it from Russia because they are ready to give it to you at discount. And how speedily did we manage to do it," she said. India ramped up its import from Russia from about 2 per cent of the total shipment of petroleum products to 12-13 per cent in a couple of months as part of inflation management, she said at a seminar organised by economic think-tank Icrier.
Retail inflation rose marginally to 4.91 per cent in November, mainly due to an uptick in food prices, government data showed on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 4.48 per cent in October 2021 and 6.93 per cent in November 2020. As per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), food inflation was at 1.87 per cent in November this year compared to 0.85 per cent in the preceding month.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel will go for a 0.35 per cent hike in the key repo rate at its meeting next week, an American brokerage said on Wednesday. The hike will be accompanied by a change in the policy stance to "calibrated tightening", Bofa Securities said in a report published ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) resolution which is set to be announced on August 5. RBI has hiked the rate by a cumulative 0.90 per cent in two tightening moves in May and June, responding to the runaway headline inflation which has consistently overshot the upper end of the target set for the central bank for many months.
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent in a bid to tame inflation, which has remained above its tolerance level for the past 11 months. With the latest hike, the repo rate or the short-term lending rate at which banks borrow from the central bank now has crossed 6 per cent. This is the fifth consecutive rate hike after a 40 basis points increase in May and 50 basis points hike each in June, August and September.
The Reserve Bank's rate setting panel on Thursday met to finalise a report for the government on why it failed to keep retail inflation below the target of 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters since January this year, said sources. The report will be presented to the government as per the Reserve Bank of India Act, they added. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Lead indicators suggest that domestic current account deficit (CAD) is likely to reduce in 2023, while macro-economic stability has received a boost from inflation being brought back to the official tolerance band, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) January 2023 Bulletin. "With the merchandise trade deficit reaching an all-time high of $83.5 billion in a quarter, and a rise in net outgo from the income account, the current account deficit increased to 4.4 per cent of GDP in Q2FY23," the State of the Economy article in the bulletin said. "It is noteworthy, however, that the CAD for Q1 was revised down from 2.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent on account of downward adjustment in Customs data.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
The government on Monday ruled out making public the RBI report detailing the reasons why the central bank could not keep inflation within the targeted 6 per cent upper limit for the three consecutive quarters. "Yes sir, RBI has furnished a report to the central government, as mandated under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, 1934 and Regulation 7 of RBI Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy process Regulations, 2016," minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply. The said provisions of the RBI Act, 1934, and regulations therein does not provide for making the report public, he said.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainties will lead the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel to opt for a status quo at the next week's meeting, Axis Bank's chief economist Saugata Bhattacharya said on Monday. Bhattacharya said he had earlier expected a tightening action at the policy meet scheduled for April 6-8 but the increased uncertainties on the geopolitical front due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on commodity prices makes him now think that RBI will defer such an action. He said the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may hike rates in the second half of FY23 by up to 0.50 per cent.
Besides high portfolio yield, investors may enjoy capital gains in debt funds in 2023 as bonds rally in anticipation of rate cuts.
'New record for the Nifty50 is only a question of when.'
Mixed earnings and not so encouraging macroeconomic data dented sentiment, Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said. In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent, while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. In the broader market, BSE Midcap declined 0.73 per cent while smallcap dropped 0.45 per cent.
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
The inflation figures are based on data collected from limited markets in view of the restrictions imposed on account of coronavirus pandemic.
So, while it is great that India's numbers look relatively good, don't raise a cheer just yet, points out T N Ninan.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to a four-month high of 14.55 per cent in March, mainly due to hardening of crude oil and commodity prices, even though vegetables witnessed easing of price pressures. As per the government data released on Monday, WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the 12th consecutive month beginning April 2021. The last time such a level of WPI was recorded was in November 2021, when inflation was 14.87 per cent.
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