In an eventful week ahead, stock market investors will take cues from major events like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the upcoming Union Budget and Q3 earnings, analysts said.
Corporate India's struggle with subdued revenue and earnings growth persisted in the October-December quarter of 2024-25 (Q3FY25). The combined net sales (gross interest earnings for lenders) of listed companies grew in single digits for the seventh consecutive quarter, while their combined net profit rose by a single digit for the third straight quarter.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
Value mutual funds have witnessed robust investor interest, garnering Rs 22,757 crore in inflows in 2024, nearly double the amount seen in 2023, fueled by impressive returns generated by the segment. This surge reflects a shift in investor focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
Anticipating US action on tariffs, India seems to have made the first move by revamping its tariff structure by reducing the slabs to eight rates, points out Mukesh Butani.
During the day, it tanked 634.38 points or 0.78 per cent to 80,050.07. The NSE Nifty declined 137.15 points or 0.56 per cent to 24,198.85. "The near-term market construct has turned weak, with FIIs turning sellers on rallies.
Both new and completed project values as of December 2024 remain below pre-pandemic levels seen in 2019.
'If the markets correct further, PSU stocks could continue to decline.'
Zomato emerged as the biggest gainer, followed by Reliance, Nestle, Asian Paints and Power Grid.
India's industrial production (IIP) growth slowed to 3.5 per cent year-on-year in October 2024, mainly due to poor performance of mining, power and manufacturing, as per official data released on Thursday. The IIP recorded a growth of 11.9 per cent in October 2023, according to a statement by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
The performance of banking and information technology (IT) stocks has had a significant impact on the composition of diversified mutual fund (MF) portfolios. Over the past two months, these sectors have become increasingly dominant, now constituting nearly 30 per cent of the total allocation in many diversified MF portfolios.
Benchmark Sensex advanced 110 points in a choppy trade on Wednesday, extending its gains to the fourth day in a row helped by buying in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and fresh foreign fund inflows. The 30-share barometer rose by 110.58 points or 0.14 per cent to settle at 80,956.33 with 14 of its constituents ending with gains and 16 stocks with losses. During the day, it jumped 399.64 points or 0.49 per cent to 81,245.39 and dipped to a low of 80,630.53.
From the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Titan, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever and JSW Steel were the biggest laggards.
From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Nestle India, Asian Paints, ITC, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank and State Bank of India were among the laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank, Adani Ports, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel and PowerGrid were among the gainers.
A sharp fall in the equity market made investors poorer by Rs 5.29 lakh crore on Tuesday when the BSE benchmark Sensex tumbled over 800 points. A host of negative triggers -- muted quarterly earnings, continuous foreign fund outflows and weak trends in Asian and European markets -- dragged the benchmark indices lower. The BSE benchmark gauge tumbled 820.97 points or 1.03 per cent to settle at 78,675.18.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
Sensex drops 138 points on foreign fund outflow
Investors' wealth on Monday surged Rs 4.21 lakh crore as markets bounced back after five days of fall. The BSE Sensex jumped 602.75 points or 0.76 per cent to settle at 80,005.04. During the day, it surged 1,137.52 points or 1.43 per cent to 80,539.81.
'Indices will remain range bound in 2022 as earnings catch up with the current multiples.'
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
Gold, silver and other precious metals along with imported mobile phones, certain cancer drugs and medical devices are set to become cheaper with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announcing cuts in customs duty in the Union Budget 2024-25.
Out of 24,230 IIT and NIT grads, about 8,000 students didn't find any takers during campus placement drives this year.
Investors, who invested in capital goods companies like Larsen & Toubro, Siemens, BHEL and ABB, would have made money even in falling markets.
MNC funds invest in companies where foreign promoters have more than 50 per cent shareholding.
After a gap of nearly two years, India's industrial production turned negative as it contracted by 0.1 per cent in August, mainly due to a decline in the mining and power generation sectors' output, in addition to an almost flat expansion in the manufacturing sector. According to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), factory output growth based on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has also been revised downwards for July to 4.7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 4.8 per cent. "The IIP growth rate for the month of August 2024 is (-) 0.1 per cent, which was 4.7 per cent in the month of July 2024," NSO said in a release.
Most of the capital goods stocks are trading at their historical highs, which often scares a potential investor. But at the same time, one cannot afford to miss the bus.
The domestic capital goods industry has been going through a boom for the last five years and appears confident of maintaining the same momentum in the current year.
With Donald Trump all set to become US president, Indian exporters may face high customs duties for goods like automobiles, textiles and pharmaceuticals if the new US administration decides to pursue the 'America First' agenda, opined trade experts. Experts also said that Trump could also tighten H-1B visa rules, impacting costs and growth for Indian IT firms. Over 80 per cent of India's IT export earnings come from the US, making it vulnerable to changes in visa policies.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, Adani Ports and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. JSW Steel emerged as the only gainer.
India's industrial production output decelerated to 4.8 per cent year-on-year in July 2024, mainly due to poor performance of the manufacturing and mining sectors, as per official data released on Thursday. The factory output growth, measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), was revised to 4.7 per cent in June from provisional estimates of 4.2 per cent released last month. The IIP for July 2024 was 4.8 per cent, as per the data.
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
Banking and capital goods stocks were out of favour, while oil and auto stocks saw buying interest.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
The Indian capital goods industry has not got the much needed import barriers especially for power equipments.
As domestic metal prices will rise faster than global prices if customs duty on metals is hiked, the capital goods sector seeks retaining them at current levels.
The FM proposed reduction in basic customs duty on gold and silver to 6 per cent and platinum to 6.4 per cent.
Capital goods stocks rallied nearly 16 per cent since January on purchases by foreign institutional investors and in anticipation of a change of government at the Centre.
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