The rising market poses a dilemma for investors on whether to continue buying, reduce equity holding, or exit equities altogether.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms jumped to an all-time high of Rs 304.53 lakh crore on Wednesday, buoyed by an unprecedented rally in equities where the BSE benchmark Sensex ended over the 67,000-mark for the first time ever. Rallying for the fifth day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 302.30 points, or 0.45 per cent, to end at its lifetime closing high of 67,097.44 points. During the day, it jumped 376.24 points, or 0.56 per cent, to reach its all-time intra-day peak of 67,171.38 points.
All negatives that contributed to the gold bull run, such as US fiscal cliff and Euro zone crisis are easing out. Some experts believe that the days of very easy gains, when you could just buy gold, hold it, and see it rise 10, 11, 12 percent each year are over.
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It's a bull run when you offer your broker a car each morning so he doesn't need to take the Mumbai local to get to the terminal by 9.19 am.
As many as 31 mainboard IPOs raised a cumulative Rs 26,272 crore in this period, according to Prime Database. During the April-September 2007 bull run, 48 IPOs totalling Rs 21,243 crore were launched. The number of deals in H1FY24 was 2.2 times that of the same period of the last fiscal year, but the amount raised was 26 per cent lower.
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tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
One common mistake investors commit during profit booking is not having a plan for the redeployment of the money that comes into their account.
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
Mutual funds (MFs) are betting on a turnaround in the healthcare sector to boost returns but are divided on the prospects of the information technology (IT) sector amid uncertain growth outlook. At the end of June, all of the top 20 fund houses were overweight on the healthcare sector vis--vis the sector's presence in the BSE 200 index, shows a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS). In the case of the IT sector, only six of the 20 fund houses had overweight positions.
Equity valuations are once again on the rise, after they cooled down in the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. The BSE Sensex trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has risen to a 17-month high of nearly 25x, from 23.7x at the end of December 2022 and 21.6x at the end of June 2022. Similarly, the index closed on Friday with a trailing price-to-book (P/B) value ratio of 3.6x, up from 3.4x at the end of December 2022; it is the highest since December 2021.
The benchmark indices are set to end their five-month gaining streak, but the market breadth continues to hold strong So far this month, stocks gaining have outnumbered those declining, a sign that the bulls still have the upper hand, even as the pullback in the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty indicates otherwise. On the BSE, 2,126 stocks have advanced and 1,955 have declined in August, translating into an advance/decline ratio (ADR) of 1.1.
The net inflows into active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes registered more than a twofold month-on-month rise in August, crossing Rs 20,000 crore, the highest in five months. This rise in net inflows was boosted by an 18 per cent growth in gross investments, driven by a record Rs 15,800 crore inflow through the systematic investment plan (SIP) route and Rs 5,000 crore collected by seven new fund offers (NFOs) in the active equity space, reveals data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi). Moreover, redemptions moderated in August, declining by 19 per cent to Rs 24,580 crore, after staying elevated in the previous three months owing to profit booking.
Valuations are much higher than the consensus earnings expectations warrant and also much too high in historical terms, says Devangshu Datta.
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'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
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'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in India are expected to stay buoyant, seen over the last three-four years, despite a slowdown in the first seven months of the calendar year. "M&A is a lumpy business activity, and we may suddenly see large deals taking place during the next two quarters of the calendar year. "This would help maintain the streak of strong M&A activity.
Stocks of new-age companies have seen a mixed performance thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). While those of One97 Communications (parent company of Paytm), PB Fintech and Zomato have surged up to 63 per cent year-to-date (YTD), FSN e-commerce, the parent company of Nykaa, however, has dropped 14 per cent YTD. By comparison, Nifty50 and Nifty 500 indices have advanced 7 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, during the period, ACE Equity data show.
'Especially if their investment horizon is over two years.'
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
Unlike the previous rallies of 2007 and 2009, this time the rise in the market is not supported by a robust economy.
The rout in Adani Group stocks after US-based short seller Hindenburg Research released a report on January 24 has sparked a rebound in trading activity this month. The average daily trading volume (ADTV) for the cash segment (both NSE and BSE combined) so far in February stands at Rs 59,346 crore, and is around 15 per cent more than the previous month's tally of Rs 51,844 crore, which was the lowest in six months. The ADTV for the futures and options (F&O) segment rose to a record Rs 204 trillion (notional turnover) against Rs 202 trillion in January.
'A lot of first-time users who have entered the markets after Covid are increasingly investing in mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and stocks for their long-term goals.'
'Investing in a factor-based fund can be beneficial provided you have chosen the right factor.'
The markets may be entering a consolidation phase and are expected to trade sideways for now after a good run in the last few weeks, suggest analysts. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can book profits at the current levels and enter the market again on a decline from a medium-to-long term perspective. Thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24), the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up around 5 per cent to nearly 62,000 levels.
This was Kuwait's second win of the tournament after they beat Nepal 3-1 in their first Group A match.
The last few years have been uncharacteristically good for the Indian sugar sector for a variety of reasons. While on the one hand, the weather supported good crop production; on the other hand, the programme to blend ethanol with petrol took off in a big way. The long-pending problem of burgeoning sugarcane arrears almost came down to nil and exports boomed to record highs.
Prices of luxury properties appreciated by 8-12 per cent during the last year across major cities and has breached the 2015 peak level, according to India Sotheby's International Realty. In its annual 'Luxury Outlook Survey 2023', India Sotheby's International Realty (ISIR) revealed that 61 per cent of High-Net-worth Individuals (HNIs) and Ultra High-Net-worth Individuals (UHNIs) are looking to buy luxury real estate during 2023-24. The sample size of the survey is more than 500 HNIs and UHNIs.
Contributions to mutual fund schemes through systematic investment plans or SIPs remain unfazed from the market volatility in 2022 with inflow growing to Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2022, a surge of 31 per cent from a year earlier, due to higher retail participation. In comparison, an inflow of Rs 1.14 lakh crore through the route was registered in 2021 and Rs 97,000 crore in 2020, data with the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed. Going ahead, SIP numbers are expected to continue to remain strong in 2023 as investors are increasingly appreciating the importance of regular investing through the route, Kaustubh Belapurkar, director - manager research at Morningstar Investment Adviser India, said.
'We expect the bull run to continue until economic growth continues.'
There are more of them now and the total value of such companies--out of reach for small retail players--may surprise you. Shares topping the five-figure price mark were rare ten years ago. A look at March-end figures across the listed universe in 2011 shows only one such share. There were two by 2013.
