Growing concerns over slower-than-expected margin recovery, amid weak deposit growth have caught HDFC Bank's investors off guard. HDFC Bank's stock on Wednesday plunged nearly 9 per cent to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,527 on the BSE after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24). The shares of India's biggest private lender closed at Rs 1,536.9, down 8.46 per cent.
The stock of fast-moving consumer goods major Tata Consumer Products has been reaching new all-time highs on better-than-expected results for the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), strong growth in the food business, and margin gains in the beverage/international business. Most brokerages are positive on the stock, given growth prospects, and believe that rich valuations are justified. The near-term trigger has been the robust operational performance in Q2.
The MPC headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the resolution of the meeting at around noon on Thursday.
The declining inflation and a negative industrial outlook have strengthened the case for RBI.
India's largest life insurer, Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) reported encouraging performance in the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24. Total annual premium equivalent (APE) was at Rs 21,180 crore, up 10.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), with group APE of Rs 3,890 crore, up 60 per cent Y-o-Y, though individual APE contracted 2.1 per cent Y-o-Y. The participatory book contracted 20.2 per cent Y-o-Y, but the non-par grew by 206 per cent to Rs 3,740 crore.
Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.09 per cent in February and 5.66 per cent in March 2023. Previously, CPI-based inflation was the lowest at 4.87 per cent in October 2023.
Airline stocks have been soaring following a steep decline in crude oil prices and sustained passenger traffic. Analysts have particularly turned bullish on the stocks of InterGlobe Aviation and SpiceJet. On December 20, shares of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) hit a record high of Rs 3,009 on the BSE, having surged 43.24 per cent year-to-date (YTD).
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) decision to withdraw the incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) is expected to benefit banks during the festival season. They are likely to increase deposit rates by up to 25 basis points (bps) in select maturity buckets. The rise in demand for funds to cover tax payments and meet quarter-end business targets could influence rate decisions by banks, according to bankers and money market executives.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (MPC) decided to stick to the course on bringing retail inflation to the target of 4 per cent while voting for maintaining status quo in the April review, except external member Jayanth Varma who voted for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate. "I believe that the extant monetary policy setting is well positioned," RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said in the minutes of the policy review, which came out on Friday. "Monetary policy transmission is continuing and inflation expectations of households are also getting further anchored.
'We may see little softness in liquidity position after the stabilisation of the government.'
SBI Cards and Payment Services reported numbers that met Street expectations in the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24). The net profit came in at Rs 590 crore, while pre-provision operating profit grew 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) (a little better than expectations). But provisions were hiked due to surprise stress from pre-Covid-19 period of 2018-19, and that dragged earnings.
The central bank had revised its inflation forecast significantly downward in the last policy
Banks in India are expected to cut lending rates by up to 50 basis points by September as there is sufficient liquidity in the system.
Mortgage lender HDFC Ltd on Friday hiked its lending rate by 50 basis points hours after the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate to tame inflation. The move would increase EMIs for housing loans by the firm. "HDFC increases its Retail Prime Lending Rate (RPLR) on Housing loans, on which its Adjustable Rate Home Loans (ARHL) are benchmarked, by 50 basis points, with effect from October 1, 2022," the country's biggest housing finance company said in a statement.
DMart's everyday low pricing model is being replicated aggressively by most players (online as well offline retailers), compelling the firm to keep prices down significantly.
The stock of Colgate-Palmolive (India) surged after the company delivered a better than expected operating performance for the March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) recently. The stock, however, has given up most of these gains over the last one week as the Street awaits recovery in the core toothpaste segment and sustained recovery in market share. The country's largest listed oral care company posted a gross margin expansion of 100 basis points (bps) on a sequential basis to 66.9 per cent, led by pricing and efficient sourcing.
With this reduction, the banks BPLR will fall to 12.50 per cent from January 1. The bank has also lowered its deposit rates by 25-100 bps across various maturities. The maximum rate available would be 8.75 per cent for deposits of two years and above.
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
The disruptions caused by COVID-19 have more severely impacted small and mid-sized corporates, including NBFCs and MFIs, in terms of access to liquidity.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
Following a strong performance in the 2022-23 January-March quarter, publicly listed paint industry giants displayed a mixed performance in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter. While Berger Paints India outperformed its peers and reported results in line with expectations, market leader Asian Paints and Kansai Nerolac Paints fell slightly short of expectations.
Inflation declined marginally to 8.23 per cent in January from 8.43 per cent in the previous month, as prices of certain commodities like wheat, pulses and sugar eased, although essential items like onion and other vegetables continue to remain dearer.
Corporate India's net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) dipped in the 2022-23 financial year (FY23) -- after rebounding sharply in FY22 -- amid a decline in global commodity prices. Top 500 companies' combined net profit stood at 4.1 per cent of the GDP for FY23, down from 4.3 per cent in the previous financial year when it had gone up from just 3.5 per cent in FY21. "The year-on-year (YoY) decline was led by global commodities, which contributed adversely to the ratio, while the financial sector contributed positively.
Fiscal pressure for the Indian economy is gradually rising, suggested analysts at Jefferies in a recent note, as oil prices (Brent) - which are close to the $100 a barrel mark - continue to climb ahead of a busy election calendar. They added that the sharp rally in the equity markets during the last few months has made valuations costly. As a result, Jefferies expects the Indian markets to remain choppy in the near term.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
State Bank of India (SBI) on Monday raised its benchmark lending rates by up to 50 basis points (or 0.5 per cent), a move that will lead to an increase in EMIs for borrowers. The increase in lending rate comes days after the Reserve Bank of India hiked its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to tame inflation. External Benchmark based Lending Rate (EBLR) and Repo-Linked Lending Rate (RLLR) have been raised by 50 basis points while the hike in Marginal Cost of funds-based Lending Rate (MCLR) is 20 basis points across all tenure.
HDFC Bank's January-March quarter result, which came in-line with expectations, failed to enthuse investors. The reason? The management's decision to abstain from providing any specific growth guidance, and analysts' expectations of an arduous road to recovery. Analysts believe the path to normalisation of several growth metrics is unlikely to be a straightforward one, and the road to balance sheet realignment may be long.
Avenue Supermarts, the operator of DMart retail chain, reported good results for the July-September quarter (Q2FY24) with strong earnings before interest before interest, taxes and depreciation (Ebitda) and profit before tax (PBT) growth, but lower PAT due to higher tax incidence. The operating margin improved, and like-to-like store sales growth was strong. Average bill value also increased though this may be a seasonal effect to some extent. Analysts are assuming this means the slowdown in retail may have bottomed out.
The June quarter numbers of the country's largest listed healthcare services provider, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (Apollo), were in line with Street estimates on the operational front. Net profit estimates, however, missed expectations due to higher interest and tax outgo. The revenue performance of the core hospital segment was robust, registering a 13 per cent increase over the year-ago quarter.
The pharmaceuticals sector is expected to post a revenue growth of around 13.5 per cent and a net profit growth of 30.3 per cent for the third quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), riding on the approval for niche drugs in the US market, fall in raw material prices and correction in shipping rates. In the healthcare segment, hospitals are expected to post revenue growth of 13 per cent during the coverage, while net profit growth would be around 37 per cent, ICICI Securities said in a note. However, the performance may not be comparable on a sequential basis due to the offset of the festive season in Q3FY24, the analysts noted.
Notwithstanding record revenues in certain media sectors like film exhibition in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), the operational performance of the broadcasting business remained subdued. Zee Entertainment Enterprises and Sun TV are expected to experience a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in advertising (ad) revenues during this period. Conversely, box office (BO) collections are anticipated to exceed Rs 3,000 crore in the quarter, propelled by a series of successful movie releases.
After underperforming its peers in the consumer space in 2022-23, and experiencing a mixed bag in the 2023-24 (FY24) April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1), brokerages are positive about the medium-term outlook for liquor stocks. Higher raw material costs, concerns regarding increased duties, regulatory changes, and competitive pressures weighed on performance returns in the past quarters. Analysts believe that the sector could experience a reversal of fortunes due to better demand and margin improvements.
Tata Communications has seen analyst upgrades after reporting Q3FY24 results. The biggest factor is the visible signs of a turnaround in its new acquisition, Kaleyra. The consolidated revenue grew 16 per cent Q-o-Q to Rs 5,630 crore led by 15 per cent Q-o-Q improvement in the data segment.
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
An in-line ICICI Bank result for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, has led to analysts raising target price and earnings per share (EPS) forecast on the stock. ICICI Bank, they said, appeared least vulnerable to regulatory action on its digital offerings or for risk monitoring lapses.
There is no impediment to normal operations as Tata Motors puts in place the demerger process of its commercial and passenger vehicles businesses. Instead, the demerger would provide greater manoeuvrability for both new entities to operate independently, according to Tata Motors management. While there may not be immediate value unlocking, it will give investors clarity about future growth and the financials across different segments.
The United Nations on Wednesday pared down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.8 per cent for 2023 calendar year, citing higher interest rates and risks of recession in the developed world weighing on investment and exports. "Economic growth in India is projected to moderate in 2023, with higher interest rates weighing on investment and slower global growth weakening exports," it said in its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report. The report has projected global trade to contract 0.4 per cent and the world economy to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2023.
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company reported financial improvement and optimistic commentary in Q4FY24. It reported 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in Gross Written Premium (GWP) and 115 bps improvement in the Combined Ratio (COR) in FY24, and improved COR guidance with COR going from 104.5 per cent in FY23 to 103.3 per cent in FY24, 102.4 per cent in FY25 and 102.0 per cent in FY26.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and HDFC Bank were the major laggards.
After Bandhan MF's US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Fund of Fund (FoF), Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL) MF has come out with US Treasury 1-3 Year Bond ETFs FoF and 3-10 Year Bond ETFs FoF. US bonds, which generally offer low yields, have turned attractive post the 525-basis point hike in US interest rates. According to Bloomberg data, the 1-year and 2-year US treasury yields now stand at 5.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. Although the yields remain lower than what Indian government bonds offer, the differential has come down steeply.
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