With high credit growth and healthy asset quality, listed commercial banks are expected to report steady growth in earnings during the fourth quarter ended March 2024 (Q4 FY24). Profits are expected to grow at 9.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and net interest income (NII) by 8.7 per cent in Q4 FY24, according to Bloomberg analysts' estimates. According to Motilal Oswal Securities, while bank credit growth has been robust, deposit growth has also gathered pace.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, Maruti, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Nestle, Bharti Airtel and Adani Ports were the biggest gainers. Tata Consultancy Services emerged as the only laggard.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) reported very strong results for the January-March quarter of the last financial year (Q4FY24), beating consensus comfortably. The margins of the automobile business improved 170 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 8.8 per cent, while FES (Farm Equipment Sector) margins improved to 15.8 per cent (up 60 bps Y-o-Y), despite a decline in volumes due to cost optimisation and lower raw material costs.
Although net inflows into equity mutual funds deteriorated month-on-month (M-o-M) in March 2024 to Rs 22,576 crore (excluding Hybrid), down 15 per cent M-o-M (up 12 per cent Y-o-Y), asset management companies (AMCs) had a great year with robust growth in assets under management (AUMs). AMCs are likely to report strong PAT growth (30-40 per cent Y-o-Y) in Q4FY24 on the back of AUM growth. In Q4FY24, domestic mutual fund (MF) industry's quarterly average AUM grew by 34 per cent Y-o-Y and 10 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to Rs 54 trillion ($652 billion).
The new rates, effective Wednesday, is the third reduction by SBI in this financial year having cut the rates by 5 bps each in April and May, while its home loan rates has come down by 20 bps during this period.
As milk prices rise, analysts have an optimistic view on dairy stocks such as Heritage Foods and Dodla Dairy, hoping the companies' margins will grow in the near to medium term. From a long-term perspective, they believe that a growing population, increasing disposable income and health consciousness will strengthen dairy consumption in India.
Banks are preferring instruments with higher premium over government securities for their held-till-maturity (HTM) portfolio, following the new investment norms, which came into effect from April 1. They are stocking up on corporate bonds and state government securities to boost yield on their portfolio, according to market participants. "Definitely, if there is a good spread available and without lower credit risk, those instruments will be favoured to boost the yield on the portfolio.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) latest order on unsecured loans is set to hit the banking sector's growth in the near-term, cautioned analysts, as they see banks slowing down on aggressive retail lending. Besides, cost of funds for non-banking finance companies (NBFC) is expected to inch up as banks will pass on higher capital charge to NBFCs. "We believe the fallout of the RBI action will be mainly on growth, given the rising dependence on unsecured retail loans and lending to NBFCs for growth.
Banks reported muted treasury gains during April-June of FY25 (Q1FY25) following Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) revised norms on investment portfolio effective from April 1, 2024, despite softening of government bond yields. "Banks have reported muted treasury gains during Q1 of FY25 despite softening of yields across the curve. "The main reason was change in the investment valuation and classification guidelines by the RBI.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) state of the economy report observed that any durable alignment of headline retail inflation with the target of 4 per cent could recommence in the second half of FY25 and sustain until numbers closer to the target are seen during the course of FY26, dashing hopes of any reduction in the policy repo rate in the current financial year. The report, authored by RBI staffers, including Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Patra, said though headline numbers may fall in July and August due to base effect, it is likely to reverse in September.
Management commentary on demand environment, and forward guidance will be in focus when Indian IT services players declare their September quarter results for financial year 2024-25 (Q2FY25). The industry is exepected to have continued on the path of recovery in Q2, similar to the preceding quarter, rather than sprint towards growth. The top four firms likely grew between 0 per cent and 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), according to consensus estimates.
High vegetable prices are expected to keep food inflation firm in the months to come.
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APH) delivered an in-line performance for the April-June quarter of the financial year 2024-2025 (Q1FY25)with growth in the number of patients. AHLL (Apollo Health & Lifestyle), a subsidiary, posted sales growth and profitability. APH also reduced operational costs at Healthco.
Of the six-member rate-setting monetary policy committee, five members voted for a 25 bps cut while one by 40 bps, the RBI said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, the second hike in five weeks aimed at quelling the inflation. The MPC vote was unanimous and has decided to keep stance withdrawal from accommodative, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Wednesday. The decision was taken during a three-day meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to review the interest rates in the country. The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate by 50 bps to 4.90 per cent," Das said.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
Corporate bond issuances fell by around 22 per cent in August, despite easing yields as issuers delayed raising funds awaiting the US Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates from this month. Corporates and financial institutions expect yields to fall further and borrowing costs to become cheaper, said market participants. The US Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in the 17-18 September meeting, marking the start of a downward interest rate cycle.
The country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank on Saturday said it will grow its loan book slower than the industry in the current financial year (FY25). The move comes as the lender looks to bring down its elevated credit - deposit (CD) ratio to pre-merger levels. "We will bring down the CD ratio faster than what we had anticipated.
Exactly a fortnight ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) next monetary policy review, a key market indicator of interest rates - the overnight indexed swap (OIS) - suggests that the central bank may tighten policy by 35 basis points and then refrain from further rate hikes. RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra recently described the OIS as the primary instrument for hedging interest rate risk in India. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI will meet on December 5-7.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries reported a 34 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) jump in net profit to Rs 2,654.6 crore in Q4FY24.
SBI Cards & Payment Services reported mixed results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24. While it managed to deliver strong earnings growth, it saw a perceptible decline in net interest margin (NIM) and suffered deteriorating asset quality. Taken together, the market was disappointed with the share dropping 3.5 per cent.
FMCG major Britannia Industries' results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) were received enthusiastically by the market with the share going up by 6.7 per cent on Monday to close at Rs 5,061.60 on the BSE. However, analysts said the results were in line with margins, and disappointing in terms of revenue growth. The consolidated net sales (excluding other operating income) rose 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 4,010 crore in Q4.
FMCG major Hindustan Unilever on Wednesday reported a 1.53 per cent decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 2,561 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2024 due to factors such as deflation and softening of commodity prices. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 2,601 crore in the year-ago period, according to a regulatory filing from HUL. Net sales of Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) were almost flat to Rs 15,013 crore in the March quarter.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
With this lending rate reduction, the bank has lowered 40 bps so far this fiscal year in five successive rate cuts beginning April.
Ambuja Cements' announcement that it would acquire Hyderabad-based Penna Cement Industries could be the Adani Group company's first step for wider inorganic expansion, according to analysts.
Good results for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY24 and strong seasonal demand have led to strong investor interest in Crompton Greaves (CG) Consumer Electricals which is hitting new highs. While there's bullish consensus on the company's future performance, the stock has gained over 40 per cent in the last six months and valuations may become stretched. The Q4FY24 revenue rose 9.5 per cent YoY to Rs 1,960 crore.
From its lows this month, the stock of Sona BLW Precision Forgings is up 10 per cent on better-than-expected results. The stock rose by 4 per cent in the trading session on Tuesday after Japan's Nikkei Group said the Indian automotive component major has topped its rankings in terms of competitive advantage. The rankings are based on sales, profit margin, capital expenditure, research and development, and market capitalisation.
Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was on a decline since January, before rising again in June. The CPI-based retail inflation was 4.8 per cent in May 2024 and 4.87 per cent in June 2023.
JP Morgan's decision last week to include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite from June 2024 may be a sort of blessing for India, as the move is estimated to result in an inflow of $25 billion of foreign portfolio investments into the country. The development comes at a time when the spread between the benchmark 10-year government of India bond and the 10-year US government bond has declined to its lowest level in more than 17 years. Low yield spreads make Indian bonds less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
Mahindra & Mahindra on Wednesday posted a 20 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit at Rs 3,283 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2024. The Mumbai-based company had reported a profit after tax of Rs 2,745 crore in the year-ago period. Revenue rose 10 per cent year-on-year to Rs 37,218 crore as compared to Rs 33,892 crore in the June quarter of last fiscal, the company said.
Indian engineering research and development (ER&D) players, such as Tata Technologies, Tata Elxsi, and Cyient, among others, had a subdued January-March quarter of 2023-24. The outlook for 2024-25 (FY25) also remains unexciting amid weak discretionary spending, prompting analysts to revise their growth expectations for the ongoing financial year (FY25).
Investors shunned shares of Bajaj Finance on Friday, a day after the non-banking financial company (NBFC) reported a sharp contraction in its net interest margin (NIM) for the March quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Q4FY24). The losses accounted for a fifth of the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex's 609-point loss. Most brokerages have tamed their earnings expectations for the next couple of quarters, after the management said it expected the pressure on NIMs to continue in the near term.
Brokerages have maintained their ratings and target prices on FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent company of Nykaa, after the fashion and beauty online retailer posted in-line numbers during the October-December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). They have, however, cut earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) estimates after weak demand weighed across line items in Q3. "While revenue growth was healthy at 22 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), gross margins declined 90 basis points (bps), weighed by higher discounting in own brands and lower ad income.
The new four-wheeler (4W) electric vehicle (EV) policy may spur the entry of global majors. The manufacturing policy cuts Customs duty to 15 per cent, given a minimum investment commitment. It calls for a minimum investment of Rs 4,150 crore (about $500 million) for making electric four wheelers (e-4Ws), with manufacturing to commence within three years of approval.
Berger Paints, the country's second-largest decorative paint maker, continued to outperform its peers and gain market share in the 2023-24 (FY24) October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3). The company posted a consolidated revenue growth of 7 per cent compared to the year-ago quarter, surpassing Asian Paints (5.4 per cent) and Kansai Nerolac Paints (5.7 per cent).
Kansai Nerolac Paints has seen its market capitalisation (mcap) erode by over 5 per cent since May 3 after posting a subpar performance in the fourth quarter of 2023-24. Weighed down by stiff competition, the company has shed Rs 1,172 crore over the past two weeks in mcap. India's largest paint maker in terms of mcap, expects double-digit growth in the industrial segment and aims to maintain margins, but its performance in decorative paints could suffer amid competition.
Discount retailer DMart (Avenue Supermarts) hit its highest levels in a year and a half last week and is up over 11 per cent in the last one month. The company depends on low operating costs to offer the lowest prices to consumers, which enables sales velocity and scale, further reducing costs. This virtuous feedback loop has helped DMart gain market share in a sector dominated by unorganised stores.
ICICI Bank reported good results for the October-December 2023 quarter (Q3), with 24 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in profit after tax (PAT). Net interest margin (NIM) dropped 10 bps quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to 4.43 per cent. Credit growth was at 19 per cent Y-o-Y (4 per cent Q-o-Q), while deposit growth was at 19 per cent Y-o-Y (3 per cent Q-o-Q).
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