The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
Indian Hotels reported strong consolidated revenue growth of 29 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), led by revenue per available room, or RevPAR, growth of 15 per cent. The average room rate, or ARR, was up 13 per cent and occupancy improved 120 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y on a standalone business. Like-for-like revenue growth was 15 per cent Y-o-Y, while TajSats (airline catering) grew by 18 per cent Y-o-Y.
The operating margin of India Inc is likely to drop in the December quarter with a 100-120 bps year-on-year decline, as 27/40 sectors are set to see crimped margins despite higher revenue, according to a report. Surging commodity prices and price hikes may help companies report a healthy 16-17 per cent revenue growth to Rs 9.1 lakh crore during the quarter ending December, the Crisil report said on Tuesday. Software major TCS will open the earnings season Wednesday.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU) disappointed the market even though some analysts said the Q3FY25 results were in line. Most analysts cut margin estimates. The insurer reported M9FY25 growth of 8.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in value of new business (VNB) premium to Rs 1,575 crore, while total annual premium equivalent (APE) grew 27.2 per cent to Rs 6,910 crore.
Dabur's performance in the July-September quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25) was weak but in line with consensus. Consolidated revenue declined 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to a temporary adjustment in General Trade (GT) inventory. Indian revenue declined 7.6 per cent, while international business grew 13 per cent Y-o-Y in constant currency (CC) terms.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) declined after the information technology (IT) major reported a 1.3 per cent sequential drop in net profit for the March quarter, prompting several brokerages to cut their target prices. The TCS stock fell as much as 1.26 per cent during the day to Rs 3,205 per share.
Despite state-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) reporting an improvement in value of new business (VNB) margin in Q1FY25, analysts believe the growth has not been satisfactory in the context of the insurer's medium-term targets on margins. VNB margin is a measure of profitability of life insurance companies. LIC's VNB margin improved by 20 basis points (bps) to 13.9 per cent in Q1FY25 over the same period last year due to a change in the business mix of the insurer.
Shriram Finance's (SHFL's) profit after tax (PAT) rose 10 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 2,140 crore in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25).
The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.3 per cent in the current fiscal year, a tad lower than the government's estimate of 6.4 per cent, owing to several factors such as weak demand, SBI research report said on Wednesday. According to the first advance estimates (FAE) of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), released on Tuesday, India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, because of poor showing by the manufacturing and subdued investments.
State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and NTPC were among the biggest laggards among Sensex shares. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and ITC were among the gainers.
Call centres, once the engine room of India's BPO exports, are evolving too. Depending on the complexity, 30 to 50 per cent of voice and chat volumes are now handled by conversational AI.
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance's (Chola) share has yielded one of the best returns in the last month. The company has sustained assets under management (AUM) growth at 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), and 35 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q1FY25. Scaling up of new businesses now contributes to 13 per cent of loans (vs 10 per cent in Q1FY24).
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
Bank credit growth is expected to moderate this financial year after a robust 16 per cent estimated for last financial year, driven by strong economic activity and retail credit demand. There are three reasons for this: a statistical high-base effect given the strong growth seen last financial year, revision in risk weights by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and relatively slower economic activity.
'Young investors should focus more on equity, while retired senior citizens should prioritise fixed income.' 'Mid-career investors should aim for a balanced allocation.'
Marico may buck the industry trend with the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major reporting strong growth and favourable commentary in a weak quarter for the industry. The company reported consolidated revenue growth of 8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q2FY25. Domestic revenue growth was 8 per cent Y-o-Y with 5 per cent volume growth (4 per cent in Q1FY25).
ABB reported a weak quarter. Revenue was at Rs 2,910 crore, up only 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), with operating profit at Rs 540 crore, up 23 per cent and net profit at Rs 440 crore.
'However, this process will take some time. Depending on the approval timeline, it may span a few quarters.'
'We have opened 100 branches in the last one and a half years. Our manpower is also in place.'
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday increased the benchmark lending rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent in a bid to contain inflation, which has remained stubbornly above the target zone of 6 per cent for the last three months. The decision follows an unscheduled meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with all six members unanimously voting for a rate hike while maintaining the accommodative stance. While the inflation has remained above the targetted 6 per cent since January, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the inflation print in April is also likely to be high.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
The data for individual weighted received premium (WRP) showed divergent trends for life insurers in December 2024. Overall, the industry's individual WRP grew 4.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y); LIC's individual WRP declined 13 per cent while private players saw 11.4 per cent growth.
After declining to a three-year low in FY24, the private sector investment is expected to fall further in the current financial year, India Ratings said in a research note.. The investments in the private sector are likely to plummet to below 11 per cent of the GDP in FY25, based on the trends from the latest national accounts data and company fillings, it noted.
Retail inflation slipped to seven-month low of 3.61 per cent in February mainly due to easing prices of vegetables, eggs, and other protein-rich items, creating space for the RBI to go for another cut in interest rate next month.
Wholesale price based inflation declined to a 3-month low of 1.89 per cent in November on cheaper food items, and experts predicted a 0.25 per cent interest rate cut by the RBI in the policy review in February. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.36 per cent in October 2024. It was 0.39 per cent in November, last year. In August, 2024, it was 1.25 per cent.
The liquidity deficit in the banking system crossed Rs 2 trillion again on Monday, despite the second instalment of cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction coming into effect from December 28.
The new rates, effective Wednesday, is the third reduction by SBI in this financial year having cut the rates by 5 bps each in April and May, while its home loan rates has come down by 20 bps during this period.
The July-September quarter (Q2) results for 2024-25 (FY25) from the largest listed consumer electrical solutions companies, Havells India and Polycab India, followed similar trends, demonstrating robust revenue growth while falling short of profitability expectations. Both companies witnessed overall growth in the 16-30 per cent range, but margins declined by 130-290 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Although brokerages are bullish on long-term prospects and have raised revenue projections, earnings forecasts have been revised downward due to margin pressures.
'Earlier, our cost of funds was higher than most in the peer group.'
Retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. Retail inflation trended below the RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent since September last year.
Tata Elxsi (TelX) reported a weak Q3FY25, with a sharp deceleration in the transportation vertical. However, recent deals in the Asia-Pacific (APAC), higher mix of original equipment makers (OEMs) and partnership with Qualcomm will improve growth. FY25 is the third successive financial year of revenue growth deceleration and second successive financial year of profit deceleration.
Most global as well as domestic brokerages are upbeat on India's largest IT services provider, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), despite its performance during the December quarter of FY25, when it missed Street estimates. On the bourses, the TCS share price rallied as much as 6.44 per cent to hit an intraday high of Rs 4,296.80 apiece, before settling 5.67 per cent higher at Rs 4,265.55.
During the day, it tanked 634.38 points or 0.78 per cent to 80,050.07. The NSE Nifty declined 137.15 points or 0.56 per cent to 24,198.85. "The near-term market construct has turned weak, with FIIs turning sellers on rallies.
Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
The private corporate sector showed improvements across various segments in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), with the operating profit margin of listed non-financial companies increasing sequentially by 50 basis points (bps) to 16.2 per cent, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data released on Monday. Sales of listed private non-financial companies increased by 8.0 per cent during Q3FY25, compared to 5.5 per cent in the corresponding quarter a year ago. It was, however, 5.4 per cent in Q2FY25.
