Owing to uncertainties on higher inflation and muted growth in the United States (US), coupled with concerns around America's rising debt and tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, the world's largest economy has become the epicentre of an unabated record rally in prices of precious metals.
The move came against the backdrop of Turkiye backing Pakistan and its condemnation of India's strikes on terror camps in the neighbouring country and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir under Operation Sindoor.
Gold sales on Dhanteras are estimated to drop 10 per cent in volume terms year-on-year on sharp 33 per cent annual rise in rates of the yellow metal, according to industry players. Since Dhanteras -- the most auspicious day in the Hindu calendar for buying items ranging from precious metals to utensils -- is celebrated on two days till 1.11 pm on Wednesday, jewellers are expecting more footfalls in both online and offline stores.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
Jewellers in India, the world's second largest gold consuming country after China, have started receiving more inquiries for purchase of gold or silver immediately after the Reserve Bank's announcement to withdraw Rs 2,000 notes from circulation. However, there is no panic buying of the precious metal unlike the situation witnessed in 2016 during demonetisation, jewellers body GJC said on Sunday. In fact in the last two days, the actual gold purchase has been less in exchange of Rs 2,000 notes due to strict Know your Customer (KYC) norms although sources said some jewellers have started charging a 5-10 per cent premium, taking the gold prices to Rs 66,000 per 10 grams level.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced cutting import duty on cut and polished diamonds and gemstones to 5 per cent while on sawn diamond to nil in order to boost the sector. At present, import duty on cut and polished diamonds as well as gemstones is 7.5 per cent. Presenting the Budget for 2022-23 in the Lok Sabha, Sitharaman also announced that the government will facilitate export of jewellery through e-commerce for which it will implement a "simplified regulatory framework" by June this year.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
The auspicious day of Akshaya Tritiya has begun on a strong note as jewellers are witnessing good footfalls and being a public holiday on Tuesday, consumers are flocking to the stores early before the temperature soars. "Jewellers across the country have opened their stores early across the country and there is a strong momentum in footfalls since morning. "There has been positive sentiment in the market since the last 10-15 days and we expect it to continue on the day of Akshaya Tritiya.
The government has hiked gold import duty to 15 per cent from 10.75 per cent to check the current account deficit (CAD) and rising import of the yellow metal. The duty changes came into effect on June 30. Earlier, the basic customs duty on gold was 7.5 per cent, now it will be 12.5 per cent.
Regaining the lost sheen, sales of gold jewellery and coins are set to touch pre-COVID levels in volume terms on the auspicious Dhanteras as easing pandemic concerns and pent up demand saw consumers flocking to stores to buy the precious metal. Increased footfall at stores and brisk sales online as well as relatively softer gold prices compared to record Rs 57,000 per 10 grams level in August spurred increased buying, especially light weight offerings, on Tuesday. Dhanteras is considered to be auspicious for buying precious metals and other valuable items.
With Indian jewellery market already on the robust recovery path, the jewellers are expecting strong Diwali sales in the Dhanteras as the festive mood remains high with low Covid third wave possibility and softer gold price this season. The industry expects the trends in 2021 will be able to reach pre-covid level sales of 2019 on the back of gold price hovering at Rs 46,000-47,000 per 22 carat 10 grams gold nearly 5 per cent lower than 2020, and jump in number of weddings, a senior official of an industry body said. "Since Navratri market is showing demand. It will continue on Dhanteras also.
There was positive news from across the country especially from the South.
Jewellers across the country will go on a 'token strike' on August 23 against the "arbitrary implementation" of mandatory hallmarking of gold jewellery, All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) said on Friday. The strike will be supported by 350 associations and federations from all four zones of the entire gems and jewellery industry, the GJC claimed. Mandatory gold hallmarking has come into force from June 16 in a phased manner. The government has identified 256 districts from 28 states and union territories for the phase-1 implementation.
The government should also introduce zero duty for gold imports so as the world trade shifts to India.
Jewellers went on strike for three days from March 2.
The recent restrictions on gold imports will encourage smuggling and grey markets activities in the country.
Gold premiums in India, the world's biggest buyer of the metal, jumped sharply this week as the festive season began, driving up demand, and supply remained tight.
The scheme calls for banks, refineries and hallmarking centres to work together.
Wants to help govt fight the widening current account deficit.
The retailers are also mulling putting a stop to selling of gold coins and gold bars to curtail investments made in gold, according to an official of trade body All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.
For the second straight year, the gems and jewellery industry is set for almost a washout of business on Akshaya Tritiya as only about 10 per cent of pre-Covid sales of 2019 are expected on Friday amid the raging pandemic sapping footfalls and purchasing power of people.
The gems and jewellery industry is staring at a sales washout on Akshaya Tritiya for the second consecutive year as most of the states are under lockdowns due to the raging second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic which has led to negative consumer sentiment, say industry leaders. Akshaya Tritiya, considered as an auspicious day for buying gold and jewellery, falls on May 14 this year. India is the worst-hit among all nations with the second wave of the pandemic, which has been killing more than 3,500 daily and infecting close to 4 lakhs daily for weeks. The massive caseload has nearly paralysed the medical infrastructure.
The second day of pre-Diwali Dhanteras witnessed a tepid response from shoppers on Friday as gold and silver sales have likely to be fallen by up to 35 per cent year-on-year due to high prices and COVID-19 induced financial distress, although consumers moved to online buying to make most of the festival, jewellers said. The buying was heavily restricted to light weight jewellery, coins and precious stones due to lower purchasing power and high gold rates, they said. Due to the fear of coronavirus infection, many customers who had booked in advance were taking delivery of wedding orders on Friday, while some were seen buying safely through online brands like Tanishq and Melorra.
Pre-Diwali Dhanteras sales of gold and silver witnessed a tepid response from consumers on Thursday on account of high prices of the precious metals and sluggish demand due to COVID-19 induced economic hardship, according to jewellers and industry experts. However, jewellers are expecting maximum footfalls on Friday as Dhanteras -- considered the most auspicious day in Hindu calendar for buying items, ranging from precious metals like gold and silver to utensils -- is being celebrated for two days this year.
Discounts and incentives are attractions jewelleres are offering along with new designs to woo customers to boost sales ahead of Diwali.
Gold jewellery sales is likely to increase by up to 15 per cent during 'Dhanteras' compared to last year as prices have steadied, experts said.
In India, the gold prices might come down to Rs 18,500-19,000 per 10 grams level from the current Rs 20,500 per 10 grams level.
The industry body has issued two advisories in an attempt to restore jewellers credibility in the wake of the Rs 12,000-crore PNB-Nirav Modi scam, and recent defaults by two domestic jewellers - Goodwin and Rasiklal.
India sharpened measures to curb imports of the yellow metal by hiking the import duty and restricting consignment imports, after shipments jumped to more than 300 tonnes in April and May.
Some jewellers kept their shops shut in Mumbai as well.
As the shift from hand-crafted to machine-made ornaments did not serve the purpose, with neither the cost of machine-made jewellery declining nor jewellers finding innovative designs, the industry goes back to 'hand-crafted' ornaments for both domestic and overseas buyers, reports Dilip Kumar Jha.
The GST rate for the sector has not yet been finalised by the government.
They are now scaling or shutting down their businesses because they can't compete with untaxed grey market gold. India's gold smuggling has increased significantly since the import duty was increased in the Union Budget 2019 in contravention with the broader market expectations of a cut.
Forecasts of a further rise in bullion prices keep Indians away from selling gold.
Meanwhile, retail jewellery sales in India have declined by 50 per cent since gold price started its uptrend nearly two weeks. Buyers deferred their fresh purchase amid expectations of a correction in gold prices from the current high level.
Govt has so far refused to bring down the import duty to 2% from the current 10%.
Dhanteras' buying seemed to have been sparked by the belief that prices would remain firm
A sharp decline in sales and prospects of a grim future have resulted in a fall in jewellery stocks.
Mandatory hallmarking of gold would be a positive in making the gold market more organised. Mandatory hallmarking would come into effect from January 15, 2020, with a one-year transition period for trade to sell existing inventories. Experts also expect more policy measures next year to bring in more transparency in terms of gold as an asset class.
Most consumers are going for token buying of lesser value and are waiting for price correction for purchase of wedding jewellery.
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