The Reserve Bank on Thursday said the country's wholesale price-based inflation and industrial production data should be improved and employment data availed for effective monetary policy management.
The headline inflation eased to a five-month low in December on lower vegetable prices, providing some relief to the ruling coalition before a national election and increasing the odds that interest rates will stay on hold this month.
Inflation data and global trends would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week which after a record-breaking run took a breather in recent trades, analysts said. The overall market sentiment remains positive, supported by improving economic data and earnings but higher valuations can trigger bouts of profit booking, they said further. During the last week, which the 30-share BSE benchmark rose by 175.12 points or 0.30 per cent.
National Sample Survey Organisation, a division within the ministry of statistics, has been roped in to collect price data for the new series and a dry run is on the anvil in the next couple of months. The new series will have 2004-05 as the base year, as against 1993-94 in the present mode and will reflect a consumption basket that is relevant in today's scenario, thereby making inflation data more reliable. The new series will have 2004-05 as the base year.
If imputed inflation for April and May is used, then you have inflation of over 6 per cent for two consecutive quarters, which is a worrying signal for the RBI.
Wall Street brokerage Bank of America Securities has pencilled in lower than the consensus retail inflation for the current fiscal year at 5 per cent, but higher than the previous forecast of 4.7 per cent. Stating that the June print will be critical for the future trajectory -- after the extremely high 6.3 per cent print in May, the brokerage in a report on Friday revised upwards its forecast by 30 bps to an yearly average of 5 per cent for the year to March 2022. "Though the June print will be critical for future trajectory, beyond near-term, we find some comfort from our analysis of four key factors that are likely to influence CPI inflation the most.
WPI inflation, which was in the negative zone from November 2014 to March 2016, has been on an upward trend for the seventh straight month
Inflation print for food articles, as a basket, remained nearly flat at 7.47 per cent during the month.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
The panel has also decided to increase the weight of manufactured items and the fuel group in the new index. Accordingly, the new WPI series, with a revised base year of 2004-05, will see the weight of manufactured items go up to around 65 per cent from 63.75 per cent in the present series.
According to the final recommendations of an expert committee, the weight of primary (unprocessed) food items will go down by 0.5-1.0 percentage points in the new series compared to the current one
The primary and immediate impact of a depreciating rupee is on the importers who will have to shell out more for the same quantity and price. However, it is a boon for the exporters as they receive more rupees in exchange for dollars. The rupee depreciation has wiped away some of the gains that would have accrued to India from international oil and fuel prices dropping to pre-Ukraine war levels.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
Young investors could allocate in the proportion of 70:20:10 to equity, debt and gold.
Costlier vegetables slowly pushed retail inflation, which had remained well within the Reserve Bank's comfortable level of 4 per cent during most part of 2019, peaked to more than three-year high of 5.54 per cent in November.
The new IIP series based on the new base year, is expected to lead to better capturing of ground data
Hardening prices of manufactured items during the month may refrain the Reserve Bank of India from cutting rates in its policy review on February 8.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath has made a strong case for regulating cryptocurrencies, saying it will always be a challenge to ban them as they operate from offshore exchanges. Gopinath also suggested a global policy and co-ordinated action for regulating cryptocurrencies. "I think cryptocurrencies are a particular challenge for emerging markets. "It seems to be more attractive to adopt cryptocurrencies and assets in emerging economies than in advanced economies," she said while addressing an event organised by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Wednesday.
As India looks to mend its Covid-battered economy, one thing that will grab the attention of all concerned is the path that both wholesale and retail inflation will follow. Even the Reserve Bank of India in its latest policy statement said, "Going forward, the inflation trajectory is likely to be shaped by uncertainties impinging on the upside and the downside.
The US Fed's rate cycle is set to turn later this year, but India is in a much better position than it was in 2013.
'The finance ministry and the RBI will never admit to the difficulties in the economy because if they do so, it will adversely impact the financial markets, etc.' 'They like to present a rosy picture that everything is fine and under control.'
Over the years, NHAI's expenses have spiraled due to sharp increase in land acquisition costs, while budgetary support has shrunk, leading it to fall back on internal resources and market borrowings
Price of potato, a daily consumable vegetable, rose 58.78 per cent during the month
The Commerce and Industry Ministry will soon seek Cabinet nod to give out inflation data every month instead of the present practice of weekly release.
Tech Mahindra was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, cracking over 5 per cent, followed by Infosys, HDFC, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries and NTPC. On the other hand, Hero MotoCorp, L&T, Maruti, UltraTech Cement and Sun Pharma led the gainers' chart.
The industry has stepped up its demand for a rate cut
The RBI's idiosyncratic focus on wholesale price inflation at the expense of retail inflation is a serious policy error.
Food articles inflation dips to 8.14% from 9.50% last month.
Stock market barometers Sensex and Nifty ended marginally higher on Monday as rise in wholesale inflation capped early gains despite a positive trend in global markets. The 30-share index settled 32.02 points or 0.05 per cent higher at 60,718.71 with half of its constituents ending in green. The broad based Nifty edged up 6.70 points or 0.04 per cent to close at 18,109.45.
The economic survey for 2020-21 has suggested revision in the weightage of food items to gauge the true picture of inflation in the country, and said new sources of price data also need to be incorporated in the wake of increasing retail e-commerce transactions. As per the survey, the current spike in consumer price-based retail inflation of food prices is mainly a supply-side phenomenon. The survey noted that the weights of all items in retail inflation are based on the NSO household consumption expenditure survey of 2011-12, adding the weight of food items in the index might have significantly decreased over the decade since then.
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
CARE Ratings, in a report, said it foresees an increase in the retail prices of petrol and diesel in the coming few days, depending on how the oil markets react in the reduction in supply from the cartel.
Wholesale price inflation stood at 4.78 per cent in November. The consumer price index for agricultural labourer and rural labourers were 13.73 per cent and 13.51 per cent in October.
The excise duty cut will translate into a reduction of Rs 9.5 a litre on petrol and Rs 7 a litre in diesel after taking into account its impact on other levies.
A Kotak research report expects RBI to cuts rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2019. RBI will announce its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy on February 7.
While headline and core WPI are stuck in a disinflationary phase, the retail measure is inching north.
Potato, a daily consumable vegetable, witnessed maximum inflationary pressure at 60.58 per cent
'The signal is crude oil prices will rise, I am cutting my subsidy. Be prepared, prices will rise.'
India's macroeconomic situation is certainly better than what it was a year ago, eminent economist Pinaki Chakraborty said on Monday, while expressing hope that the country will be back on the path of economic growth if there is no major third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. In an interview with PTI, Chakraborty, who is the director of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), said that inflation may remain at an elevated level as there was a significant fiscal and monetary expansion in the last 18 months. "The current macroeconomic situation is certainly much better than what it was one year back. We are seeing recovery in most sectors," he said. Chakraborty noted that COVID-19 vaccination has been going on at a very fast rate in India.
Overall the inflation in vegetable segment was 8.57 per cent as compared to about 4 per cent in February.
