Many individual states experienced higher inflation than the all-India figures during the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). Retail inflation figures in Telangana, Haryana, Rajasthan and Dadra and Nagar Haveli have been higher than national numbers every month of this financial year, shows a Business Standard analysis of state-wise figures, after the March inflation data was released on Friday. Experts noted that persistent high food inflation along with differences in the weights of rural and urban indices plays into the regional variation in inflation rates.
Even as the high inflation figure for October has ruled out any possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) in December, a rate cut in February also looks uncertain due to global uncertainties. Economists told Business Standard that unless domestic growth slows markedly, the outlook on rate cut remains unclear. India's headline inflation touched a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the MPC's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.
>According to the latest RBI data, PPF receipts have already experienced a decline between April 2023 and February 2024. Other schemes like the Sukanya Samriddhi Account and National Savings Certificate are also witnessing reduced inflows.
States are on track of fiscal consolidation with their total borrowings reaching Rs 5 trillion till October, which is 60 per cent of the projected borrowings of Rs 8.38 trillion till December 2024, according to data from official sources. Government officials said the lower-than-projected borrowings by states were a sign of prudent fiscal management by them. States announce their borrowing plans every quarter.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Amid low growth elsewhere, gross value added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities recovered during the second quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25) to 3.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to strong monsoon. Experts feel that the rains have laid the foundation of an even better GVA performance in subsequent quarters. GVA growth in the first quarter of FY25 was 2.0 per cent.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
Whether it's Carrefour, Ford, or other foreign majors, they are ready to adjust their strategies and design their plans in a way that would address the Indian consumption story.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
Credit outstanding to the housing sector rose by nearly Rs 10 lakh crore in the last two fiscals to reach a record Rs 27.23 lakh crore in March this year, according to RBI's data on 'Sectoral Deployment of Bank Credit'. Experts from banking and real estate sectors attributed this growth in housing credit outstanding to a strong revival in the residential property market post-COVID pandemic on pent-up demand. According to the data of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on sectoral deployment of bank credit for March 2024, the credit outstanding to the housing (including priority sector housing') stood at Rs 27,22,720 crore in March 2024, up from Rs 19,88,532 crore in March 2023, and Rs 17,26,697 crore in March 2022.
...to fund the revenue gap. Of the gross market borrowing of Rs 14.13 trillion estimated for FY25, Rs 7.5 trillion, or 53 per cent, is planned to be borrowed in the first half.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
The liquidity will move into deficit after advance tax payments and GST outflows. It will rebound in October because of government spending.
India's outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) nosedived to $11.12 billion in January-June (H1 2023) from $23.57 billion in the same period last year, indicative of the slowdown in the global economy, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. The outward FDI expressed as the total financial commitment, has three components, namely equity, loan and guarantees. The sharp contraction in the commitments (outward FDI) was prominent in the April-June 2023 period.
Despite high headline numbers, the output of one-third of the segments in the manufacturing sector in August stood below even that in the same month in 2011-12, when the new index of industrial production (IIP) series started. This is despite the fact that manufacturing grew 9.3 per cent in the month, driving up IIP growth to a 14-month high of 10.3 per cent. Part of it is due to the devastation of these product categories by lockdowns induced by Covid waves and subdued export conditions, while part of it needs to be assessed further.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
The outward foreign direct investment (FDI) by Indian companies stabilised in 2023-24 (FY24) after witnessing a fall in 2022-23 (FY23). The actual outward FDI inched up slightly to $13.75 billion in FY24 from $13.49 billion in the previous financial year (FY23), according to finance ministry data. This stability came after a sharp fall in outward flows in FY23 from $18.52 billion in 2021-22 (FY22).
Alloting more funds for MNREGA and PM-KISAN could wipe out the entire additional money that the Centre may have for FY25.
To boost domestic manufacturing under the Make in India initiative and reduce dependency on imports, the government is expected to announce in the Budget an increase in the minimum local content requirement for public procurement, with certain sectors being granted exceptions. Currently, firms producing goods, services, or works with at least 50 per cent local content are classified as Class-I local suppliers and are preferred the most in government procurement.
With concern on food inflation ebbing with the monsoon progressing well, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is warming up to the idea of a change in stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation", according to economists. In his speech on Thursday during the annual event of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks' Association, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised."
'India's top companies currently lack the organisational wherewithal to hire and train 2 million interns annually, given their current scale of operations and existing employee base.'
'The Budget needs to focus more on social welfare schemes.'
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
The protesting farmers' main demand to legalise the minimum support price (MSP) regime has divided opinion. One school of thought says it would lead to crop diversification and help India keep under check its burgeoning import bill on edible oils and pulses, while another says it would incentivise farmers to produce low-quality crops. Contrary to popular perception, India has a trade surplus in agriculture and allied activities, which stood at $18.65 billion during 2022-23 (FY23) against $15.92 billion in the previous year. However, the surplus was mainly on account of rice, wheat, sugar, spices, and buffalo meat.
With India's inclusion in global bond indices starting next financial year, the central government believes there will be greater scope for shifting to borrowings via long-term government securities (G-sec) from short-term instruments. This change may be factored into the FY25 interim Budget. "While this has been our focus, the inclusion of India in global bond indices gives us the opportunity to accelerate the shift towards longer tenure G-secs," an official said, requesting anonymity.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
Could the MPCE survey results be used as a basis of reconstructing the Consumer Price Index with new weights, asks Madan Sabnavis.
'The expeditious enactment of labour codes and strategic measures to bridge the skills jobs gap are critical.'
In mid-March this year, the finance ministry asked state-run banks to review their gold loan portfolio for the two-year period between January 1, 2022, and January 31, 2024. This business had grown at a fast clip. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data has it that it grew 15 per cent to Rs 1 trillion in FY24. Now, in recent times, any kind of exuberance in financial services has seen the authorities swoop down - be it pushing the lines on governance or unsecured credit.
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
The finance ministry on Thursday sought to clarify that there was no distress in household savings and the data indicated that changing consumer preference for different financial products was the real reason for the change in the pattern of household savings. The clarification comes in the backdrop of Reserve Bank of India data showing that household net financial savings rate is at its lowest in decades, at 5.1 per cent of GDP in FY23 compared to 7.2 per cent of GDP in FY22. The divergence in the data for household gross financial assets and liabilities is not a cause for concern for the government, as the loans have largely been taken to buy real assets or automobiles, the finance ministry said.
The Interim Budget for 2024-25 (FY25) to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume 10-10.5 per cent nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth against 8.9 per cent estimated for FY24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). "We were waiting for the First Advance Estimates GDP numbers for FY24. "We will finalise the nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 Interim Budget in a couple of days.
Banks submitted bids amounting to Rs 4.75 trillion, around 2.5 times of the notified amount of Rs 1.75 trillion, at the Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRR) auction conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on December 22, a day after the liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to Rs 2.5 trillion. In the most recent VRR auction held by the RBI on December 15, bids totaling 2.7 times the notified amount were received. Banks secured Rs 1 trillion at a weighted average rate of 6.63 per cent.
Growth rate in per capita income is projected to fall to the lowest in 21 years this financial year - except for the financial years 2019-20 (FY20) and 2020-21 (FY21) - according to the first advance estimates. During the last 21 years, the two periods - FY20 and FY21 - saw growth rates in per capita income lower than 7.9 per cent, seen during FY24. This was despite the real gross domestic product (GDP) being projected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the current financial year by the first advance estimates.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
'If private capex has to kick in, there should at least be 2-3 years of visibility.'
