S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the Indian economy is projected to grow at 11 per cent in the current fiscal, but flagged the "substantial" impact of broader lockdowns on the economy. In its report on Asia-Pacific Financial Institutions, S&P said the control of COVID-19 remains a key risk for the economy. New infections have spiked in recent weeks and the country is in the middle of a second pandemic wave.
The decline in LIC's share price makes it the biggest wealth destroyer among IPOs which hit the market after COVID-19 took hold globally in 2020.
At a time when consumers increasingly embrace green mobility solutions, it is not electric cars but hybrids that are taking the lead, as automotive sales data indicate. Since January, 64,097 electric cars have been sold compared to 266,465 hybrids, according to data from the ministry of road transport and highways' Vahan dashboard. Hybrid car sales have surged from 4.42 per cent of the 4.1 million cars sold in calendar year 2022 to 7.2 per cent this year.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent, from 11 per cent earlier, and warned of risk to the outlook from further waves of COVID pandemic. The agency lowered the growth outlook saying that a severe second COVID-19 outbreak in April and May led to lockdowns imposed by states and sharp contraction in economic activity. "We forecast growth of 9.5 per cent this fiscal year from our March forecast of 11 per cent," S&P said.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
Billionaire Gautam Adani's embattled conglomerate said its balance sheet is "very healthy" and is laser focused on continuing business momentum, as it looked to reassure investors to keep faith in the conglomerate despite a share rout triggered by a damning report by a US short-seller. Group CFO Jugeshinder (Robbie) Singh in an earnings call said the group is confident of its internal controls, compliance and corporate governance. Separately, it released a compendium of group companies to highlight that it has adequate cash reserves and has ability to refinance debt.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade of 'BBB-' for the 14th year in a row with a stable outlook, and said that the country's strong external settings will act as a buffer against financial strains despite elevated government funding needs over the next 24 months. The sovereign credit ratings on India reflect the economy's above-average long-term real GDP growth, sound external profile, and evolving monetary settings, S&P Global Ratings stated. "India's democratic institutions promote policy stability and compromise, and also underpin the ratings. "These strengths are balanced against vulnerabilities stemming from the country's low per capita income and weak fiscal settings, including consistently elevated general government deficits and indebtedness," it said in a statement. S&P Global Ratings has forecast economic activity in India to begin to normalise throughout the remainder of fiscal 2022, resulting in real GDP growth of about 9.5 per cent.
Financial services and consumer durable companies accounted for most of the selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in the last fortnight of February. FPIs sold finance stocks worth Rs 2,263 crore and consumer durable stocks worth Rs 1,111 crore, according to data collated by Prime Infobase. Information technology (selling worth Rs 708 crore), metals and mining (Rs 694 crore), and power (Rs 497 crore) were the other sectors where overseas funds sold shares.
The S&P BSE Auto Index has been one of the biggest outperformers among sectoral indices over the past year with returns of 26 per cent. By comparison, the benchmarks - the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 and the S&P BSE Sensex - managed about 6-8 per cent during this period. Improving demand, falling raw material costs, and rising product realisations, led by the premiumisation of portfolios, have led to a revision of growth estimates and upgrades by domestic brokerages.
At a time when consumers increasingly embrace green mobility solutions, it is not electric cars but hybrids that are taking the lead, as automotive sales data indicate. Since January, 64,097 electric cars have been sold compared to 266,465 hybrids, according to data from the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways' Vahan dashboard. Hybrid car sales have surged from 4.42 per cent of the 4.1 million cars sold in calendar year 2022 to 7.2 per cent this year.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, the focus will also be on foreign portfolio investors' trading activity, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for 'Mahavir Jayanti' and on Friday on account of 'Good Friday'.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the US government's top credit rating to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated debt ceiling negotiations. The development caused a flutter across equity markets, with most leading frontline global equity indices trading weak. Back home, the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 lost over 1 per cent each in intra-day deals to hit a low of 65,751.53 and 19,517.55 levels, respectively.
Expect heightened volatility and stress to hit the markets. Caution may be the need of the hour, alerts Akash Prakash.
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies has rejigged his equity portfolios. In his Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, he has added Axis Bank (5 per cent weightage) and increased holding in Larsen & Toubro (L&T) by one percentage point. This, Wood said, will be paid for by removing the investment in ICICI Lombard General Insurance and reducing the investments in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) by one percentage point each.
Textile stocks have exhibited a mixed performance so far this calendar year (CY23), amidst higher domestic cotton prices and tepid global demand. Shares of Page Industries, Dollar Industries, Lux Industries, and VIP Clothing have declined up to 13 per cent so far in CY23, as against a 9 per cent jump in the S&P BSE Sensex. On the contrary, shares of Arvind, Welspun India, Raymond, and Gokaldas Exports have gained up to 51 per cent, during the same period.
The Congress-led opposition stepped up its attack on Friday against the government over the Adani row and demanded that there should be a thorough investigation into what they alleged was a 'mega scam' as it involved public money.
One of the biggest advantages of index funds and ETFs is their low cost, points out Sarbajeet K Sen.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined in early trade on Wednesday due to selling in financials, oil and IT stocks amid weak global trends.
India's first-ever listed new-age company, Zomato, has seen a meteoric rise in its stock price in calendar year 2023 (CY23), rising 70.75 per cent during this period as compared to 9.5 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. From being the second worst hit new-age stock in CY22, crashing 57 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the stock hit the Rs 100-mark for the first time since January 2022 in late August. The stellar run in the stock - only after PB Fintech and One97 Communications-owned Paytm, analysts say, may be coming to an end, at least for now.
Services sector activities improved further and touched a five-month high in April driven by a surge in incoming new work orders that boosted business activity and supported a renewed increase in employment, according to a survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 57.9 in April, from 53.6 in March, highlighting a sharp rate of expansion that was the fastest since last November amid mounting price pressures. For the ninth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
Analysts remain selective on cement stocks amid the likely government's capex push ahead of the scheduled general elections in May 2024. While UBS has initiated coverage on the Indian cement sector with an anti-consensus negative view and suggests investors sell select cement stocks on a rally, those at Nomura remain selectively bullish on the sector and prefer companies with large brownfield optionality and multi-region presence. In the near-term, UBS expects strong earnings of cement companies in the next two quarters to be driven by robust demand and margin tailwinds, but suggests any sharp uptick in stock prices could offer a good opportunity for booking profits in the related counters.
'The market should maintain optimism on the back of range-bound oil prices, a robust fiscal balance sheet, a better-than-expected monsoon, and moderating inflation.'
S&P Global Ratings on Monday expressed scepticism over allowing corporate ownership in banks given India's weak corporate governance amid large corporate defaults over the past few years. It also said that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will face challenges in supervising non-financial sector entities at a time when the health of financial sector is weak. Last week, a RBI panel had proposed that large corporate may be permitted to promote banks, as well as raising the cap on promoters' stake in private sector banks to 26 per cent, from15 per cent at present.
The rating agency said, rising COVID-19 cases in India will keep private spending and investment lower for longer.
After a tumultuous past few days that almost halved value of the Adani group, embattled tycoon Gautam Adani-led conglomerate had some pressure eased on Friday as two global rating firms stuck with their calls on its credit profile and its French partner backed its investments in the group firms. Also for the first time since January 24, shares of the group's flagship firm Adani Enterprises ended in positive territory after erasing an intraday loss of 35 per cent. Adani Ports and SEZ also ended 8 per cent higher. This is after a over $100-billion rout in value of group stock since the US short seller Hindenburg Research accused Adani group of stock manipulation and accounting fraud.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday kept India's economic growth forecast in the fiscal year to March 2022 unchanged at 9.5 per cent but raised its predictions for the subsequent year on broadening out of the recovery. The Indian economy had shrunk by 7.3 per cent in 2020-21 fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021) as pandemic induced restrictions battered business activity. The gradual lifting of the restrictions has helped the economy to rebound from pandemic lows.
The state with the most people has displaced the state with the largest economy in terms of investor additions. Uttar Pradesh (UP) added 126,000 new investors in April, reveals National Stock Exchange (NSE) disclosures. This is higher than Maharashtra's 118,000. Maharashtra, which is home to India's financial capital of Mumbai, has traditionally been the biggest source of investors.
With Housing Development Finance Corporation's (HDFC's) merger with HDFC Bank becoming effective on July 1, the merged entity is set to become the top weight in the benchmarks S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty indices, dislodging the country's most valuable company, Reliance Industries (RIL), from its perch. HDFC will stop trading after July 13. At present, RIL has a weighting of close to 12 per cent in the Sensex and 10.3 per cent in the broad-based Nifty. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank and HDFC have weights of 9.9 per cent and 6.8 per cent in the Sensex and 8.8 per cent and 6 per cent in the Nifty, respectively.
Difficulties in containing the virus, an anaemic policy response, and underlying vulnerabilities, especially across the financial sector, are leading us to expect growth to fall by 5 per cent this fiscal year before rebounding in 2021, S&P said in a report.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.8 per cent saying the second Covid wave may derail the budding recovery in the economy and credit conditions.
Do you have financial planning queries? Ask rediffGURU Abhishek Dev.
The government's target of hitting $52 billion to $58 billion in mobile phone exports in FY26 has been faltering; an Indian corporate group with financial muscle will help.
India's total value of defence production breached Rs 1 trillion-mark in the fiscal year 2022-23 (FY23), up 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY). At the bourses, this has been well reflected in related-stocks from the sector as they gained considerable ground during this period. Shares of Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, MTAR Technologies, Bharat Electronics (BEL), and Bharat Dynamics (BDL) have skyrocketed up to 160 per cent in a year, as against a 14 per cent jump in the S&P BSE Sensex.
The sharp rally in the broader markets has propelled India's market capitalisation (m-cap) to a new high. The combined m-cap of all BSE-listed firms rose to Rs 291.9 trillion in intraday trade on Thursday before settling lower at Rs 290.9 trillion. The previous record was on December 14, 2022, at Rs 291.3 trillion.
India's manufacturing sector activities moderated in March with companies reporting softer expansions in new orders and production as inflation concerns dampened business confidence, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally-adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 54.0 in March, down from 54.9 in February, highlighting weakest rate of growth in terms of production and sales since September 2021. The March PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the ninth straight month.
The limited availability of flexible (flex)-fuel vehicles in the Indian market and the slow rollout of ethanol-blended petrol by oil-marketing companies (OMCs) remain major obstacles to achieving widespread use of biofuels in the transportation sector in India. Recently, two Union ministers have emphasised India's biofuel potential, arguing that it has the capacity and potential to lead a transition towards widespread biofuel adoption. Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari signalled that this transition is well underway and urged car manufacturers to quickly adapt and introduce new biofuel-run vehicles, lest the government resort to taxing diesel vehicles.
The decline of over 5 per cent in PB Fintech's shares (the parent company of PolicyBazaar) in the past two days presents an opportunity for long-term investors to consider buying the stock, suggest analysts. By comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has remained flat during the same period with a negligible gain of 40 points, or 0.06 per cent. Analysts believe that the recent selling is "overdone", as the company behind the online insurance portal remains committed to achieving profitability, and the potential threat from the government's online insurance portal, Bima Sugam, might be embellished.
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