The US Fed's interest rate decision will be the major factor dictating trends in the domestic equity market this week, with global movements and foreign investor activity also influencing sentiment, according to analysts. Stock markets ended the last week on a subdued note, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closing flat.
Mutual fund industry extended its bull run in 2025, adding a staggering Rs 14 lakh crore to its asset base and pushing total AUM to a record Rs 81 lakh crore by November, powered by surge in retail participation and record SIP inflows. Venkat Chalasani, chief executive officer of AMFI, told PTI that the industry's outlook remains positive, with steady SIP inflows continuing to offset foreign portfolio investor outflows and strengthening market resilience.
'We expect modest returns in 2026 versus the steep gains seen over the past few years.'
Among Sensex firms, Power Grid, Eternal, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank and Infosys were the biggest laggards. However, Mahindra & Mahindra, Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were among the major gainers.
From the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, HCL Tech, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra and Infosys were among the major winners. However, Hindustan Unilever, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and Sun Pharma were among the laggards.
Fund managers are divided on the prospects for beaten-down information technology (IT) stocks, reflected in the wide variance in equity mutual funds' (MFs) sector exposure. An analysis by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research shows that while six large fund houses were overweight the sector relative to its weight in the Nifty 200 index, five were underweight as of October 2025. UTI MF had the highest exposure at 17.8 per cent, while SBI MF sat at the bottom with 5 per cent.
The rupee appreciated 53 paise to close at 89.67 against the US dollar on Friday, supported by corporate dollar inflows and easing crude oil prices. Forex traders said a positive trend in domestic equities and Brent crude oil prices hovering near $59 per barrel supported the domestic unit at lower levels.
Largecap equities are less volatile than mid- and smallcap stocks, making them suitable for risk-averse investors.
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Banks have outperformed the broader market in the past six months and most of the leading lenders have given positive returns to investors compared to a negative return delivered by benchmark indices.
In an event-heavy week ahead, stock markets' movement would highly depend on macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, RBI's interest rate decision and trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. India's industrial production data for October 2025 will be released on December 1, an official statement said on Friday.
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Among Sensex stocks, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Trent, Infosys, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, HCL Tech, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Finance were the major laggards. However, Bharat Electronics, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Eternal, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries were the gainers.
Macroeconomic data, global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors will be the key drivers for dictating market sentiment this week, analysts said. "This week, volatility may increase ahead of the November derivatives expiry. Domestically, markets will track several high-impact macro releases, including Q2 GDP data and industrial production.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
From the Sensex pack, HCL Tech, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Sun Pharma and Titan were among the biggest gainers. In contrast, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Maruti, Adani Ports and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
The rupee fell 23 paise against the greenback to settle at a new all-time low of 91.01 (provisional) on Tuesday, weighed down by relentless foreign fund outflows, no breakthrough in India-US trade deal, and persistent US dollar buying.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Steel, HCL Tech, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Bharat Electronics and Eternal were the major laggards. However, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and ITC were among the gainers.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 25 per cent tariff on all goods coming from India starting August 1 and an unspecified penalty for buying Russian crude oil and military equipment.
The rupee plunged 38 paise to close at an all-time low of 90.32 against the US dollar on Thursday amid uncertainty over the India-US trade deal. Forex traders said the rupee is expected to trade with a negative bias as the delay in the trade deal between India and the US may continue to dent investor confidence.
Among the Sensex constituents, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki India, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, UltraTech Cement, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles were the laggards. However, Eternal, Titan, Adani Ports, Bharat Electronics Ltd, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.
'LIC's investment decisions are taken independently, following strict due diligence, risk assessment and fiduciary compliance.'
The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPI) ownership in NSE-listed companies has declined to 16.9 per cent at the end of September, lowest in 15 years, the largest stock bourse said on Thursday. The domestic mutual funds' ownership climbed to 10.9 per cent in the ninth straight quarter of increase, data shared by NSE said, adding that this is on the back of strong flows into systematic investment plans (SIP).
The rupee breached 90-levels against the greenback for the first time on Wednesday, falling 6 paise to 90.02 in early trade, as banks kept buying US dollars at higher levels and FII outflows continued.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
Tech Mahindra, Trent, Reliance Industries, HCL Tech, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC were also among the laggards. However, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Bajaj Finserv were among the gainers.
The continued MF buying has pushed the equity holding of MFs to over Rs 50 trillion for the first time.
Among the Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Eternal, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Unilever and UltraTech Cement were the gainers. Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Kotak Mahindra Bank, PowerGrid and Tata Steel were among the laggards.
From the Sensex firms, Power Grid, Eternal, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Maruti and Bharat Electronics, were among the major laggards. However, Titan, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, and State Bank of India were the gainers.
Among the Sensex firms, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Tata Consultancy Services, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries and Larsen & Toubro were the gainers. Trent Ltd, Eternal, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, Mahindra & Mahindra, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever and NTPC were the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank, PowerGrid, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Maruti Suzuki India, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement and HCL Technologies were the only gainers. On the other hand, Eternal, Tata Motors' commercial vehicles arm, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Trent, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, and Infosys were among the laggards.
On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank were the laggards. In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, Shanghai's SSE Composite index and Hong Kong's Hang Seng settled higher.
After a brief pause in October, foreign investors resumed selling, pulling out a net Rs 3,765 crore from Indian equities in November, driven by global risk-off sentiment, volatility in global tech stocks and selective preference for primary markets over secondary markets.
After a year of modest returns, equity investors may anticipate gains of 10-15 per cent in Samvat 2082, which began on October 21. Although valuations have moderated from their peaks a year earlier, they remain above long-term averages, potentially limiting sharp upsides.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Trent, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Eternal, Titan and Bajaj Finance were the gainers. On the other hand, Tata Steel, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles, Bharat Electronics, Kotak Mahindra Bank and PowerGrid were the laggards.
Stock market sentiment is likely to remain optimistic going ahead, though some consolidation cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp rally in the benchmarks, analysts said. According to experts, the Nifty and Sensex could indeed move towards new record highs before the end of the year, if global cues stay supportive, crude oil prices remain benign and there is continued domestic earnings momentum.
The average daily turnover (ADTV) in the derivatives market rose to a 12-month high in October, touching 506 trillion - up nearly 46 per cent since June - as volatility picked up and concerns over further regulatory tightening eased. Derivatives activity had slumped earlier this year after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) capped weekly expiries to two days and discontinued weekly contracts on non-benchmark indices.
'Defence, capital goods, engineering, capital market-related stocks, autos, and cement sectors are my bullish bets for Samvat 2082.'
Knowing this data will make it easier for traders to identify reversals and momentum swings. In this blog, we will explore how option chain analysis forecasts the market turns.
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