The universe of stocks trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 50x or more has swelled by 2.5x to 104, indicating the growing froth in the market. In March 2023, the number of stocks with a P/E of 50x and 100x stood at 41 and 3, respectively, which has now grown to 104 and 9, according to an analysis by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE).
'Sectors like e-commerce, small finance, housing finance, and healthcare are in great favour, and people are paying a PEG ratio of up to 5, which is dangerous.' 'Wealth destruction is inevitable.'
The cash pile within smallcap mutual fund (MF) schemes has grown over the past few months amid a relentless rally in stocks in this space. While fund managers usually don't make cash calls, incessant inflows and valuation discomfort have forced their hand. At the end of January, the top 10 schemes had over Rs 12,160 crore in cash, compared to Rs 8,700 crore in August 2023.
Active largecap funds, which have the toughest job in terms of outperforming the benchmark, did better in 2023 as their bets in the mid and smallcap stocks paid off.
Mutual funds (MFs) added systematic investment plan (SIP) accounts at a record pace in 2023 with the net additions in the calendar year surpassing 15 million - 24 per cent higher than the 2022 tally of 12.2 million, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
'The economy is clearly at a very soft spot, and earnings growth is disappointing every day.' 'After three great years, the Indian economy has hit a rough patch.'
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Fund managers of large-cap and equity-linked saving schemes (ELSS) have demonstrated a marked improvement in their performance over the past year, according to the latest SPIVA (S&P Indices Versus Active) report released by S&P Dow Jones Indices. In the one-year period ending June 2023, 17 per cent of active large-cap schemes outperformed the S&P BSE 100, compared to just 9 per cent at the end of June 2022. In the case of ELSS, there was a sharp improvement in performance, with 66 per cent of active schemes delivering better returns than the benchmark S&P BSE 200.
From Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, UltraTech Cement, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies, ICICI Bank and Tata Steel were the biggest gainers. Sun Pharma emerged as the only laggard.
These are usually found among small and midcaps. It is not easy to find such stocks, especially after a strong bull market, discovers Debashis Basu.
A portfolio can be rebalanced by either selling a portion of the outperforming asset class or by buying more of the underperforming asset class.
Benchmark Sensex closed above the 85,000 level for the first time while Nifty scaled the 26,000 peak at close on Wednesday as fag-end buying in banking and power shares helped stock markets recoup early losses. After a see-saw trade during the day, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 255.83 points or 0.30 per cent to settle at an all-time high of 85,169.87. During the day, it surged 333.38 points or 0.39 per cent to hit a record intra-day peak of 85,247.42.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, Adani Ports and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. JSW Steel emerged as the only gainer.
'Geopolitics will be the most important driver of financial markets in 2025.'
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Tuesday said it has halved the lot size for trading derivatives contracts for the Nifty 50 index to 25 and also reduced the lot sizes of the Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Midcap indices as part of its periodic revision. "All contracts, i.e. weekly, monthly, quarterly, and half-yearly expires available for trading from the trade date of April 26, 2024, onwards will be with the revised market lot size," the NSE said, referring to applicability of the change for Nifty 50. The lot size in the derivatives segment refers to the fixed number of shares in a unit or group for which contracts are traded.
India's stock markets are experiencing a shift in investor sentiment, with a 30 per cent surge in Chinese stocks, prompting investors to move money from domestic markets to China. This reversal of fortunes is a notable change from the past three years, where China's losses benefited India.
'Investors should consider small and midcaps only if they can handle volatility and have a longer investment horizon.'
'To be able to sail through such volatilities, it is prudent to focus on quality.'
The number of dematerialised (demat) accounts required to hold shares and other securities in electronic format rose by 3.1 million in April, bringing the total tally to a fresh record of 154.5 million. Since December last year, the new additions have consistently remained above the 3 trillion mark, a sign that the stock markets continue to attract new investors despite a spike in volatility.
Among the 30-share Sensex pack, State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever, NTPC, Larsen & Toubro, Nestle India, Power Grid, ITC, JSW Steel and Sun Pharmaceuticals were the major gainers. On the other hand, HDFC Bank, Titan, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Tata Motors, HCL Technologies and Asian Paints were among the laggards.
The recent rally in small and midcap (SMID) stocks is not backed by fundamentals and is a case of irrational exuberance, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a recent report. The fundamentals of most of these companies have, in fact, worsened over the last few months, they noted. Yet, some analysts expect the bull run in these stocks to continue amid intermittent corrections.
China has stayed on top for two consecutive months in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (EM IMI), after ceding the position to India in August. At the end of October, China's weight in the key EM gauge stood at 24.72 per cent, up from 21.58 per cent at the end of August. India's weight during this period has slipped to 20.42 per cent from 22.27 per cent.
Net inflows into two of the 'lower risk' equity funds - largecaps and flexicaps - outpaced the flows into smallcap funds during January 2024 for the first time in 17 months. This is an indication that investors may now be shifting to the relatively safer largecap stocks after a sharp run up in the mid and smallcap spaces. Net inflows into large and flexicap funds were at Rs 3,730 crore last month against Rs 3,260 crore by smallcap schemes.
The market regulator's newly proposed selection criteria for the over Rs 400-trillion-a-day futures and options (F&O) market could pave the way for the entry of popular stocks such as Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India, Jio Financial Services, Zomato, Paytm, DMart, and Adani Energy into the derivatives segment. The Indian derivatives market, which accounts for most of the trading volumes, could see big churn with over two dozen exits from the current list of 182 stocks due to an upward revision in the eligibility thresholds.
'For experienced and risk-taking investors, now may be the time to go all in.' 'By 'experienced and risk-taking', I refer to those who remained net buyers in equities during the early stages of the 2020 pandemic.' 'On the other hand, those who exited the markets during the pandemic may go the SIP way.'
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
Overall market reaction to the Budget was neutral. Investors absorbed the changes to the tax rates (positive for salaried class) and capital gains taxes (CGTs, negative due to the removal of indexation and increases. Other proposals largely pertain to supporting rural development, buybacks taxed as dividends, Custom duty changes that impact multiple sectors, higher outlays for clean energy, etc. There's some moderation in the growth of capex outlay across defence, fer
Following the sharp run in markets, valuations across the board have become elevated. The National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index now trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.3 times, 18 per cent higher than this year's low of 20.5 times. The valuation expansion in the broader markets has been sharper.
Investor wealth eroded by Rs 4.46 lakh crore in a single day on Friday with the benchmark BSE Sensex tanking more than 1 per cent in line with global stocks rout. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 885.60 points or 1.08 per cent to close at 80,981.95 with 25 of its components declining and five ending with gains. During the day, it nosedived 998.64 points or 1.21 per cent to hit an intra-day low of 80,868.91.
Stocks of smallcap and midcap companies, which had caught the fancy of retail investors, also feature in the portfolio of leading politicians in addition to bluechip stocks.
'Allocate up to 20 per cent of your core equity portfolio to quality funds.'
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled higher on Thursday, powered by a rally in banking and power stocks amid a largely firm trend in global markets. The stock markets mostly traded range-bound in the absence of any major trigger and persistent foreign capital outflows, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points, or 0.18 per cent, to settle at 81,611.41.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
The sharp surge in investment accounts (folios) in midcap and smallcap mutual funds (MF) in recent months is likely driven by the do-it-yourself (DIY) investors. In the first five months of the present financial year (FY 2024), net folio additions in direct MF plans (4.5 million) has outpaced that in regular plans (3.9 million), contrary to the trend seen in the previous three six-month periods. The net folio additions in direct plans in the five-month period (April-August 2023) is 40 per cent higher than the total additions made in the previous six month period.
Riding the wave of the equity market, the mutual fund (MF) industry experienced double-digit growth in Samvat 2079, concluding the Hindu calendar year close to the Rs 50 trillion assets under management milestone. After a subdued 6 per cent growth in Samvat 2078, the industry's assets surged over 18 per cent last year to Rs 46.7 trillion. Industry players anticipate that Samvat 2080 will also be a fruitful year for the asset management industry, given the strong inflows from retail investors, particularly through the systematic investment plan route.
All the sectoral indices, led by realty, metal, consumer durables and power were trading in the negative zone on Thursday.
'...you evaluate three key factors before committing your money.'
Five firms, including ACC Ltd, HDFC Asset Management Company and FSN E-Commerce Ventures that runs Nykaa, will be dropped from Nifty Next 50 index from September 29. NSE Indices Ltd, an arm of the National Stock Exchange, on Thursday said that Indus Towers and Page Industries will also be dropped from the index. Punjab National Bank, Trent, Sriram Finance, TVS Motor Company, and Zydus Lifesciences will be included in the Nifty Next 50 index, NSE Indices said in a statement.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has asked fund houses operating smallcap funds with a large corpus to share data on their holdings in the total free float of smallcap stocks, according to sources. This is part of the stress tests that the regulator wants fund houses to undertake amid a surge in inflows into smallcap schemes and growing concerns about valuations. Free float refers to the quantum of freely available shares for trading on the stock market.
NTPC, JSW Steel, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Tech Mahindra were also among the major gainers. Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, Nestle, HDFC Bank and Maruti were among the laggards.
