India has much to be proud of and celebrate. But there is also much that is wrong, much that looks dangerous. Employment, current account deficit, rural distress, agricultural productivity are all in deep crisis, points out Shekhar Gupta.
Enclosing the money with a letter, the workers affiliated to the Gram Swaraj Mazdoor Sangh "expressed concern" at the "meagre" hike as they felt that the central government was facing "paucity of funds", otherwise the wages would have definitely increased in tune with Jharkhand's minimum daily wage which is Rs 212.
The corona-fuelled lockdown having shattered their dreams, they are now walking, cycling and hitchhiking hundreds of miles under an unforgiving sun blazing down at over 40 degrees to reach their homes in an impoverished Bihar, where an uncertain future awaits them.
The stimulus package is expected anytime this week and will be aimed at the urban and rural poor; disadvantaged sections of society; MSMEs and some of the worst-affected sectors.
With the threat of a failed monsoon and an impending drought, the need for public works and for greater numbers of workers will arise in many states, says Aruna Roy
Around 275,000 migrant labourers and their family members have returned to the state. According to the state government, this number could exceed 1 million by the end of this month. As the NDA government in Bihar is scheduled to face polls at the end of this year, providing livelihoods to these people is on the top Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's agenda.
The economy faces more downside risks now as economic disruptions arising from the second wave are likely to stabilise only from July, warned the Swiss brokerage USB Securities. Last month, the brokerage had cut its GDP forecast by 150 bps to 10 per cent for FY22, which though is much higher than the consensus projections by others with some pegging it at as low as 8 per cent. Though adverse impacts on sequential growth is less severe than in the June 2020 quarter when it plunged by 23.9 per cent, as lockdowns are more targeted and localised and households and businesses have adjusted to the new normal now, still, it is increasingly possible that normalcy returns only by July as against our baseline assumption of June.
SBI data shows the per-capita payouts for scheme have shot up this year.
'Aggressively stepping up vaccinations will constitute the most enduring stimulus of all in the coming quarters,' observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, Chief India Economist at J P Morgan.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the actual spending under the scheme in the fiscal year ending March 31 "would be highest".
Ramesh's reply came when he was asked whether grants would be provided to Karnataka for the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and Indira Awas Yojana as the state was now under the Congress rule.
The biggest headwind to the consumption story in FY23 is a sharp decline in government subsidies on food, fertiliser and fuel, and overall decline in revenue expenditure net of interest payments. This, analysts say, will adversely impact purchasing power of households at the lower end of the income pyramid, translating into lower spending on consumer goods and services.
Later, there may be some tax relief aimed at the middle class and measures to benefit the sectors worst hit by Covid-19 and the resultant nationwide lockdown.
Many farmers in drought hit states are seeking MGNREGA work but the state government's coffers do not have enough fund to pay the salaries of these workers.
In his letter to Kumar, the veteran leader has made a series of suggestions including an amendment in Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Gurantee Act, bringing Lord Buddha's begging bowl from Kabul and hoisting tricolor at Vaishali, the land of world's first Republic.
According to the latest report from Stranded Workers Action Network (SWAN), a voluntary effort started in March 2020 to mobilise relief for stranded migrant workers, almost 92 per cent workers, whom the group contacted between April 21 and May 31, had not received any money from their employer. This was after restrictions were imposed and work had stopped. The survey, which was conducted among 1,396 worker groups, adding up to 8,023 people that included 4,836 women and children, showed that 76 per cent of the workers had less than Rs 200 left with them.
While Mizoram alleged that personnel of the Assam police fired on its civilians injuring one, the neighbouring state claimed that the men in uniform only returned the fire after miscreants from the other side of the border sprayed bullets on them.
The party also promised to end the mafia raj by creating corporations for the sale of liquor and sand mining.
Evidently, households see a brighter future after the Budget, reveals Mahesh Vyas.
It is important to increase employment in general. It is even better to increase good quality jobs. Strategically, it is important to move people from farms to factories to improve overall labour productivity. It is important to improve job opportunities for women, for urbanites and for the educated. The Budget does not contain ideas to do any of this, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The Indian FMCG industry has recorded a 9.4 per cent growth in the January-March quarter of 2021, helped by a consumption-led growth and value growth by increased prices of products, especially of staples, said data analytics firm Nielsen. The rural market continued to perform with strong growth of 14.6 per cent during the period and the metro markets have registered a positive growth after two quarters. Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry sales growth from the traditional trade channels jumped to double digits, while growth in e-commerce normalised down to single digits in the January-March quarter.
In a statement, Gandhi urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the government to increase the number of testing facilities across the country and make public the details of hospitals and medical facilities through a dedicated portal.
Ramesh wants Maharashtra to be a pace setter.
'What worked for the BJP were three things: Hindu nationalism, religion and a silent but strong anti-Muslim sentiment.'
The survey showed that women workers fared worse than men when it came to employment recovery (53 per cent versus 57 per cent) and urban areas have been much worse hit despite a quicker bounce back.
In the short run, the government should loosen the purse strings but trying to invent new instruments is a bad idea, Banerjee said. Trust, he said, in the system is important at this point and keeping that in mind.
'The term 'pro-growth' must be qualified somewhat because, while a rising tide will lift all boats, it will not necessarily do so equally.'
Congress' senior spokesperson Anand Sharma Sharma said Prime Minister Narendra Modi must 'walk the talk' and announce the measures required by giving money in the hands of the poor and small and medium enterprises to help reboot the economy.
'It may take two years for the economy to return to normal.' 'We should ensure that the vulnerable do not dig into their savings or give up their assets because that will set them back by several years.'
With the government revising wages under MGNREGA, it could be another pressure point for rising inflation, if appropriate policy action to address the demand-supply gap is not in place, said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday.
Under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, a worker is entitled to Rs 100 per day for minimum of 100 days in a year.
Former CAG Rajiv Mehrishi says Centre has held back a report he submitted to the President, to end what he called "a nightmare of accounts that militates against good governance".
The government's ambitious rural employment project MGNREGA has come under the scrutiny of the Supreme Court which today said money was not reaching real beneficiaries and in many cases going to wrong hands.
The Left party had favoured spending six and three per cent of GDP on education and health care sectors.
'Waiting for a market correction and optimising entry time in the markets will be akin to missing the woods for the trees.'
The immediate need is to put more money in the hands of agriculture-based and rural households to improve their purchasing power, says S Mahendra Dev.
RSS-aligned Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) on Monday expressed disappointment over the government's budget proposals with regard to divestment and foreign direct investment, especially in the insurance sector. The BMS, however, lauded the government for its current efforts on the massive vaccination programme, a special scheme for tea workers in West Bengal and Assam, labour oriented push on infrastructure projects in construction sector and development of five major fishing harbours viz. Kochi, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Paradip, and Petuaghat as hubs for economic activities etc. On other Budget proposals, it said in a statement that "mixing the beautiful concept of Aatmanirbhar Bharat with FDI and disinvestment in the Union Budget is disappointing for the employees".
'The stimulus packages, sector reliefs, loans etc are coming to industry, but state governments have not got any money from GST, no money from excise, no money from any income source.'
Experts say the party is undoing what it achieved through MNREGA by targeting beneficiaries
For states like West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh, where migration is high, the return of workers could be as much an opportunity as a liability. All states have launched portals to register migrant workers; additional fields like nature of employment and remuneration in the past 2-3 years are being added to help in skill mapping.
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