'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
India's steel market is out of step with global trends. Global demand is weak with China at a huge supply surplus to its domestic demand, pushing down global steel prices. India's domestic demand for steel is strong, given the continuing infrastructure push and is likely to accelerate as urbanisation improves, and the auto sector continues to grow alongside the infrastructure push.
Amid increasing volatility and recession fears looming over global markets that has led to the decline in wealth of a number of billionaires, Gautam Adani was the only one to buck the trend. The billionaire added $43.3 billion in net worth between Diwali 2021 (November 4) and this year's Diwali (October 24) according to Bloomberg data. He added more wealth than the gross domestic product (GDP)of more than a dozen Indian states.
After depreciating 0.32 per cent against the dollar in October so far, the rupee is expected to hold ground against the greenback in the current quarter on the back of robust inflows. According to the median of a Business Standard poll of 10 respondents, the rupee is seen trading around 84 per dollar till the end of December. "In India's case, at least the bond and cash related inflows will continue.
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Dalal Street had a roller coaster ride in 2024 from shattering record after record to facing heavy correction off-late but equity markets still rewarded investors with positive returns, driven by a surge in domestic fund flows and a resilient macro landscape. The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277.35 in September 2024, according to Motilal Oswal Wealth Management.
The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7 per cent in the 2022-23 fiscal, down from 8.7 per cent a year ago, mainly due poor performance of mining and manufacturing sectors. As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.9 per cent in 2021-22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22.
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
'During his stint as prime minister, he got 270 million people out of poverty.' 'This, according to the World Bank, is the fastest compression of poverty anywhere in the world.' Arvind Mayaram, the former finance secretary, recalls his encounters with Dr Manmohan Singh.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
'Regulatory challenges exist everywhere. What we look for is regulatory stability over time.'
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
The water crisis could jeopardise more than half of the world's food production and cause an average global GDP loss of 8 per cent by 2050, with lower-income countries facing up to a 15 per cent loss, according to a new report.
Donald Trump's exaggerated opinion of his dealmaking capacity can get him into trouble, observes R Sriram.
Gold imports more than doubled in August to a record high of $10.06 billion, mainly on account of a drastic cut in customs duty and ongoing festive demand, according to the Commerce Ministry data. Gold imports stood at $4.93 billion in August 2023. On record high imports, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said that the tariff rates on gold have been reduced drastically so that smuggling and other activities can come down.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,150 per ounce in the international market by December 2025, up around 19.1 per cent from its current level of $2,645, according to a recent report in Business Standard. Domestically, gold is trading at Rs 76,018 per 10 grams after delivering a remarkable 21.9 per cent return in the past year.
Skills like social media, e-mail marketing, SEO (search engine optimisation) and PPC (pay per click) will be essential in 2025, says Sachin Alug, CEO, NLB Services.
A host of macroeconomic data announcements, the last batch of September quarter earnings, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will be the major driving factors for the equity market this week, according to analysts. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for Guru Nanak Jayanti. "India is set to release CPI and IIP data on November 12, with WPI data expected on November 14.
The share of equity and investment funds in the total financial wealth of households increased by more than 50% between 2011-2012 and 2022-2023.
Looking under the hood, I see India on the terrible, but commonplace, road to prosperity failure, warns Rathin Roy.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
Everybody talks of China as the real threat, but we aren't even building a decisive capability against Pakistan, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
'As we enter 2025, it must be acknowledged that there is a convergence of capital, influential people (from business and politics) and technology deciding the destiny of others in the name of pride, patriotism, nationalism, nation building, all of it thinly veiled disguises for personal profit and glory,' asserts Shyam G Menon.
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
India's services PMI recovered from its ten-month low in September to reach 58.5 in October supported by strong expansions in output and new business, which in turn boosted job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index increased from 57.7 in September to 58.5 in October, as robust sales pipelines and strong demand conditions supported the upturn in business activity. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
All eyes will be on whether Sitharaman provides the much-expected tax relief for the middle class, leaving more money in their hands, as there is tax buoyancy
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
United States President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday said that he understands the Russian feeling with NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) being on their doorstep.
The government is proposing to use Artificial Intelligence and other innovative methods to check traffic violations and ensure that penalties are levied accurately, Union minister Nitin Gadkari said on Thursday. Addressing the 12th edition of the Traffic InfraTech Expo, the minister outlined plans for upgrading toll collection methods, including the exploration of satellite toll systems, which would improve efficiency and ensure transparency in toll collection. Gadkari noted that road safety cannot be achieved without integrating advanced engineering solutions, enforcement of laws, and the adoption of cutting-edge technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI).
With hilsa prices soaring, when you do cook it you need the finest recipe.
India's current account deficit (CAD) may dip further in the March quarter of FY24 as pressure from the negative net exports during the January-March period eased to an 11-quarter high. A part of the gross domestic product (GDP) data, net export- which is usually negative for India - captures the difference between exports and imports of both goods and services, while the CAD data, released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), also factors in private transfer receipts.
The outcome of Maharashtra state elections is unlikely to move markets much, said analysts. The markets, they believe, have bigger developments to worry about in the short-to-medium term.
Donald Trump's Presidency of the United States will open new opportunities for India though certain sectors, especially pharma and IT, may face the heat if the incoming president decides to impose restrictions on imports and H1B visa regulations, experts said on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's friendly relationship with Trump will have a positive bearing on Indo-US relations but India may have to adapt its strategies to maintain cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the current fiscal year while forecasting a weaker-than-previously expected pace for developing Asia. ADB's 7 per cent growth projection for fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023), unchanged from its September forecast, compares to 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. For 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent.
Citing a weak manufacturing sector coupled with the steep margin compression, SBI Research has pencilled in the country's GDP growth for the second quarter at 5.8 per cent, down 30 basis points from average estimates. The government will release the official numbers on November 30. In a report on Monday, SBI Research headed by Soumya Kanti Ghosh said corporate results, operating profit of companies, excluding banking and financial sector, degrew by 14 per cent in Q2FY23 as against 35 per cent growth in Q2FY22, though the top line continued to grow at a healthier pace.
The combined wealth of India's dollar billionaires is now equivalent to 33.81 per cent of India's nominal GDP.
'Three manufacturing sectors can create jobs by the million: Apparel, food, and electronic assembly.' 'Let's talk to them and ask them what it would take to scale by a factor of ten,' suggests Naushad Forbes.
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