'The real risk is not that AI will fail to transform India's economy.'
'The risk is that it already is -- while our measurement systems continue to look the other way,' observes Nishant Sahdev, a theoretical physicist at the University of North Carolina.
'We believe the truth is in the middle, and that India is at an important crossroads.'
Highlights of the Economic Survey 2025-26
'If you go by the capital expenditure, this is a good defence budget. But we will have to see if the government can keep defence spending at 2 per cent or higher in 2027-2028.'
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The Indian rupee crashed to a record closing low against the US dollar due to rising global crude oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
The Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM) is advocating for the termination of the moratorium on customs duties for electronically transmitted digital products, arguing that it hinders self-reliance, causes revenue losses, and restricts India's ability to tax emerging technologies like AI.
Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead.
When it comes to raising funds, women entrepreneurs receive a disproportionately small share.
Benchmark lending rates unchanged with repo rate at 5.25%
After a 25 basis point rate cut in December, the RBI on Friday decided to pause on the policy rate front amid geopolitical uncertainties.
The Economic Survey on Thursday projected the GDP growth in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent in 2026-27, a tad lower than 7.4 per cent estimated in the current fiscal.
Budget 2026 is an intentional and ambitious one - From manufacturing growth to services supremacy, from technology consumption to AI-powered transformation. This is the blueprint for a $7 trillion economy built on intelligence, not just scale.
Supported by strong buoyancy in public sector capital expenditure (capex), growth in infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in 2025-26 (FY26) compared to 2024-25 (FY25), according to the First Advance Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for FY26 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday.
This year's Economic Survey and the Union Budget were more closely followed for more reasons than one.
Indian equity markets experienced a volatile trading day, with the Sensex and Nifty closing almost flat. Market sentiment was influenced by global cues, US-Iran talks, and profit-booking activities.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
India's services sector experienced a slight moderation in growth during February, according to the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index, with new order growth slowing and inflation picking up.
Union Minister JP Nadda accuses the West Bengal government of sheltering infiltrators, leading to demographic changes and hindering development.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher on Thursday, helped by a rally in blue-chip Larsen & Toubro and the Economic Survey projecting the GDP growth of 6.8-7.2 per cent for the next fiscal.
India's high cost of capital due to relatively shallow corporate bond markets, limited institutional investor depth, sovereign risk premia, and regulatory restrictions on capital flows, is a constraint on private investment and long-run growth, the Economic Survey, authored by Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, said.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities in February, marking the highest monthly inflow in 17 months, driven by factors such as the interim India-US trade deal, correction in domestic market valuations, and strong corporate earnings.
RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat addressed concerns about population imbalance, citing religious conversion, infiltration, and low birth rates as key factors. He advocated for 'ghar wapasi' and vigilance against infiltrators, while also emphasizing the importance of family and employment.
Bharat Electronics, Power Grid, NTPC and HDFC Bank were among the other major gainers. However, Infosys, Tata Steel, Eternal and Tech Mahindra were among the laggards.
Sensex and Nifty post steepest weekly loss in over a year, falling nearly 3 per cent.
India's real GDP grew 8.2 percent in the second quarter of 2025-26, up from 7.8 percent in the first quarter and 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal.
'Credit growth in India remains in double digits, even though corporate borrowing is subdued.' 'Corporate credit is weak because companies are cash-rich and cautious amid global uncertainty.'
On Agri Stack, Expenditure Secy V Vualnam says it's progressing well; using IT, farmers will be able to choose exact fertiliser quantities needed, reducing crowding at fertiliser outlets.
New Delhi will substantially reduce tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods while continuing to protect sensitive sectors. Tariffs on some agricultural products that are not traditionally considered sensitive will be brought down to zero, while in the case of relatively sensitive items, duties will be reduced in a graded manner and quotas will be imposed.
There are vexing questions around the disconnect between Nifty returns and portfolio returns, between economic growth and earnings growth, and finally, between earnings growth and market returns, points out Debashis Basu.
Capex, infrastructure development, and prudent fiscal management are the key focus areas in the Budget, says Nilesh Shah.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded on Thursday after three sessions of losses, tracking gains in global markets after US President Donald Trump struck a conciliatory tone on Greenland. In a volatile session, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 397.74 points, or 0.49 per cent, to close at 82,307.37.
The 25 per cent US tariffs, plus a penalty for Russian imports, could dent India's GDP growth by 30 basis points in the current fiscal, but the higher duty is unlikely to significantly affect India's domestic demand-driven economy, Barclays said on Thursday. If the 25 per cent tariff, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, is implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, as per Barclays estimates.
India's real GDP growth in FY26 will slide further to 6.2 per cent in FY26 from 6.5 per cent in FY25, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. In a research report, Nomura said there is a "divergence" between the growth in GST collections and across other high-frequency growth indicators like auto sales and bank credit growth.
