In view of the rising number of mobile and internet banking users, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has proposed to tighten norms related to the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) by increasing the run-off factor for retail deposits. "Banking has undergone rapid transformation in recent years. "While increased usage of technology has facilitated the ability to make instantaneous bank transfers and withdrawals, it has also led to a concomitant increase in risks, requiring proactive management," the RBI said in the draft guidelines released on Thursday.
Investors not comfortable investing directly may take the mutual fund route, where they get exposure to a diversified portfolio of bonds.
'A dynamic bond fund acts like a gilt fund in a rate cut scenario and like a conservative short-term bond fund when rates rise.'
'TMFs trump FMPs and FDs when it comes to investing in a high-duration product.'
Despite steady loan growth, the banking sector is expected to report subdued margins in the quarter ending June 2024 (Q1FY25), driven by high demand for deposits amidst tight liquidity conditions. However, according to Bloomberg analysts, listed banks are forecasted to see a 14.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in net profit. Estimates showed that banks' net interest income (NII), and revenues from interest minus interest expenses might grow 11.9 per cent Y-o-Y.
RBI's exercise will take into account standards of governance, the viability of the payment bank (PB) business model, and changes, if any, if needed.
'Higher inflows into these securities should lead to lower borrowing costs for the government.'
Dwaipayan Bose on how index funds play a key role in the diversification of portfolios and help manage risks
With high credit growth and healthy asset quality, listed commercial banks are expected to report steady growth in earnings during the fourth quarter ended March 2024 (Q4 FY24). Profits are expected to grow at 9.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and net interest income (NII) by 8.7 per cent in Q4 FY24, according to Bloomberg analysts' estimates. According to Motilal Oswal Securities, while bank credit growth has been robust, deposit growth has also gathered pace.
Investors need to evaluate how they stack up against other high credit quality fixed-income options before putting money in them.
Wipro was the biggest loser among Sensex firms, sliding 2.32 per cent, followed by HDFC Bank, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, ITC, ICICI Bank and Tata Motors. IndusInd Bank, Maruti, State Bank of India, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints and Bajaj Finserv were among the gainers.
Short-term government bonds fell behind longer-dated securities in demand this month so far due to a liquidity crunch in the banking system and expectations of a delay in a rate cut, said market participants. Investors have favoured longer-tenure government bonds, or g-secs, with insurance companies and pension funds leading the charge by stocking up on those with maturities of 30 years and more. Preference for longer-term securities was strengthened by the conclusion of the borrowing programme, which compelled institutional investors to fulfil their requirements in the secondary market.
In a major move aimed at encouraging small investors to become direct investors in government bonds or stated simply to an infinite source of lending to the government, the Reserve Bank on Friday said it will allow them to directly buy government debt, making India the first Asian country to do so and among a handful globally.
States' borrowing cost fell for the second consecutive week on Monday, with the weighted average cut-off easing by 4 bps to 7.67 per cent from 7.71 per cent in the last auction when it slid by 7 bps. The yield on the benchmark 10-year G-secs also declined in the week by 4 bps to 7.23 per cent from 7.27 per cent last Tuesday, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The weighted average cut-off of the 10-year state debt also eased to 7.61 per cent at Monday's auctions from 7.66 per cent last week.
FMPs remain an option for investors who believe interest rates could head downward over time and wish to lock in the current rates. TMFs have very low expense ratios, which makes them cost-efficient.
Commodity investments can help you diversify your portfolio in asset classes other than equity and debt, says Dwaipayan Bose.
Analysts and economists have hailed the fiscal projections in the interim Budget, saying the lower fiscal deficit forecast shows that the government, even in an election year, is serious about fiscal consolidation and that the numbers look achievable. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, the two broad themes of the interim Budget are fiscal consolidation and stepping up focus on agriculture/rural to course correct, to some extent, the differential benefits of the ongoing economic growth that's tilted in favour of upper-income bracket/urban households. The projected fiscal deficit numbers for FY24 and FY25 suggest that the government is serious about achieving the fiscal consolidation path of 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by FY26, and given the nominal GDP growth assumption and revenue buoyancy, the target appears plausible, Pant said in a note.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling spree continued as they dumped Indian equity worth over Rs 5,800 crore this month so far on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
'India's fundamentals are a lot better (than those of other emerging market economies).' 'India will suffer (witness a fall in its stock market) what I call the second order effect.' 'And the second order will happen when these funds (belonging to macro and hedge fund investors and which have leveraged Japanese yen-carry trades), because they lose money elsewhere as lot of their positions were financed by borrowing Japanese yen, will have to book profits in investment destinations where they are making money, including in markets like India.' 'They (these investors) will have to effectively sell in countries like India and which is the consequence (the crash in equity markets) that Indian markets might see.'
Tactical investors should have an investment horizon of around six months to one year, long-term investors should stick around for 10 years or more.
Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPIs) selling spree continues as they pulled out over Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first three trading sessions of November on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
TMFs invest in a public index, so investors know beforehand which instruments the fund will invest in.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday allowed inbound travellers from G20 nations arriving at select airports to use the popular UPI for making payments in the country. Later, the RBI also proposes to extend the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) facility to travellers from all countries. UPI is a system that powers multiple bank accounts into a single mobile application, merging several banking features, seamless fund routing & merchant payments into one hood.
'Investors with higher risk appetite and longer horizon (more than one year) can invest in longer-duration funds like corporate bond funds, long-duration funds and gilt funds for maximum gain.'
A top Sebi official on Friday criticised the RBI's "conflicting" roles as a regulator of the government securities market and as a market participant, suggesting that Sebi was better suited for the regulatory function.
The reason for the stickiness in bond yields can be many, but the most responsible is the liquidity deficit stance taken by RBI, says Anup Roy.
Regardless of market levels, invest in stocks and equity mutual funds in a staggered manner.
The contribution from asset management companies (AMCs) has surpassed the Rs 3,000 crore target for the creation of a Rs 33,000 crore backstop facility for debt mutual funds (MFs). The initial corpus for the Corporate Debt Market Development Fund (CDMDF) is nearly Rs 3,100 crore, according to multiple government officials and AMC executives. "The fund is operational now. "The required corpus has been raised by AMCs and the remaining part (Rs 30,000 crore) is in the form of a guarantee from the government which will be activated only in case of a credit event," explained D P Singh, joint CEO and deputy MD, SBI MF.
The government of India has programmed to raise Rs 241,000 crore, but due to scaling up of issuance size of securities, will end up raising Rs 259,000 crore in April-September 2009.
Opinions vary, but fund managers remain bullish.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
Dwaipayan Bose examines the seven important factors that investors about exchange traded funds must know before they start investing/trading in them.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
The Finance Ministry is exploring the possibilities of another round of buyback of government securities from banks and financial institutions, as the first auction yielded only 14 per cent of the targeted Rs 1,00,438 crore (Rs 1,004.38 billion).
The cost of debt-funds for the states has touched the highest level so far this fiscal with the weighted average cut-off crossing the 7.16 percentage points at the latest auctions, up 11 bps over the past week, reflecting the hardening yields even for the government securities. The hardening of the rates at the first auction of the quarter comes in the wake of the expected large supply of debt from the states, as indicated for Q4 at Rs 3.2 lakh crore, up by Rs 10,000 crore. Nine states on Tuesday raised Rs 18,900 crore at the latest auction of state development loans.
While the FPI limit on most bond issues would not be raised above 6 per cent, there would be some in which there would be no limits, reports Arup Roychoudhury.
Among index funds, the most popular products are funds tracking the Nifty 50 and Sensex, says Dwaipayan Bose, and explains the finer points of selecting the right index mutual fund.
Gilt funds make sense only if you want to take a tactical view on interest rates and are looking for a short-term duration.
This is because the bond market has factored in the Rs 4.88-trillion gross borrowing for April-September 2020.
India has a huge untapped population which doesn't have facilities for financial aid and insurance, and it is perhaps plausible to look at the option of having niche players catering to smaller sectors akin to non-banks and microfinance institutions in lending, said Rakesh Joshi, member (Finance & Investment), Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai). Speaking at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit, Joshi said, "Today, most of our insurance companies operate at a national level. There is arguably a case for having differentiated operations, which cater to niche sectors the same way we have non-banking financial companies (NBFC) and microfinance institutions in lending." "The capital requirement for niche players may not be as large as those having national ambitions. "Enabling these niche players, which require lower capital, will enhance the penetration in areas which hitherto had not seen traction from large players," he said.
