After a record run in FY2022, when the brokerage industry is set to report over 30 per cent topline growth at around Rs 28,000 crore, the industry is set for a tepid growth next fiscal even though the outlook is stable, says a rating agency report. The market has been on a song since June 2020 when the first wave of the pandemic ebbed and since then it has had record run with the stock indices more than doubling since the Covid-19 mayhem in March 2020 and scaled new life-time highs since then. The market frenzy was also visible in the massive number of new investors coming to the equity market, as exemplified in the more than trebling of the demat accounts since April 2020.
US shale oil would act as an alternative to India's heavy dependency on Russian crude, which is currently facing sanctions.
Union finance secretary T V Somanathan recently said the Centre had saved Rs 10,000 crore in FY22 on interest payments after adopting new accounting mechanisms for central government agencies and centrally sponsored schemes (CSS) for state governments. Speaking at an event, Somanathan said due to these, there was an unspent balance of Rs 1.2 trillion with state agencies from CSS as on March 31, 2022. This means this amount will be reduced from the Centre's borrowing for now and it can be considered a short-term saving for the exchequer.
After the government sought Parliament's nod for a second batch of supplementary demand for grants that will cause a hit of Rs 2.99 trillion to the exchequer, doubts suddenly arose about the government's ability to meet the Budget projections of reining in its fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), or Rs 15.06 trillion, for the current financial year. Till now, many were of the opinion that the government would succeed in checking the deficit at a much lower figure than what was given in the Budget Estimates (BE). The government had sought Parliament's approval to spend Rs 3.74 trillion extra, but Rs 74,517.01 crore will be matched by equal savings on other heads.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's biggest oil firm, on Tuesday reported a 31.4 per cent drop in the fourth quarter net profit as record refining margins were wiped away by a margin squeeze in petrochemicals and losses on auto fuel sales. Standalone net profit of Rs 6,021.88 crore, or Rs 6.56 a share, in January-March, compared with Rs 8,781.30 crore, or Rs 9.56 per share, in the same period a year back, the company said in a stock exchange filing. Sequentially, the profit was higher than Rs 5,860.80 crore in the previous quarter.
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
'It is critical that the Covid curve does not have a fat tail and the chain is broken quickly.'
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
An analysis by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has revealed that retail traders remain at the wrong end of the stick when it comes to equity derivatives trading. About 93 per cent of them incurred an average loss of Rs 2 lakh (per trader) during the last three financial years. The new report highlights an increase in the loss-making individual investors in futures and options (F&O) to 91.1 per cent in FY24 compared to 89 per cent in FY22.
'The US is strongly placed to expand its crude supplies to India.'
Indian Americans contribute approximately 5% to 6% -- roughly $300 billion -- in federal tax revenues annually.
The adverse impact on the margins of auto, consumer staples and consumer durables sectors will be counterbalanced by an earnings uptick in the metals, cement and oil & gas sectors.
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
However, the SBI report said it will take almost seven-quarters from Q4 FY21 to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms and there will be a permanent output loss of around 9 per cent of GDP.
Moody's on Thursday upped India's growth projection for the next financial year beginning April 1, to 13.7 per cent, from 10.8 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of normalisation of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccine. For current fiscal, the US-based rating agency expects the economy to contract 7 per cent, lower than its previous estimate of 10.6 per cent contraction.
'Peninsular Indians could ask 'Why should we contribute half of India's tax revenues if we account for only a quarter of the seats in the Lok Sabha?'.' 'The rest of the country seems likely to counter that 'democracy means one vote per person irrespective of where that person resides in India'.' 'With no easy answers to this thorny debate, the south's economic ascendancy could end up creating a Hobson's choice.' A revealing excerpt from Nandita Rajhansa and Saurabh Mukherjea's book, Behold the Leviathan: The Unusual Rise of Modern India.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth estimate to 12.8 per cent for the fiscal year beginning April 1 from its previous estimate of 11 per cent, saying its recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected. In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said revision is on the back of "a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance and better virus containment." "India's second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent," it said. "Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory."
The October-December quarter (Q3FY25) results of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) indicated weak demand, with urban growth muted and rural showing recovery. Consolidated revenue grew by 1.6 per cent (volume was flat) to Rs 15,818 crore, due to price hikes. Prices of key raw materials such as palm oil and tea remained elevated, leading to compression of gross margin.
To curb speculative trading, markets regulator Sebi on Tuesday put in place a stricter framework for equity index derivatives by increasing the minimum contract size and mandating upfront collection of option premiums. Other measures announced by Sebi included intra-day monitoring of position limits, removal of calendar spread benefit on expiry day, rationalisation of weekly index derivatives and increased tail risk coverage.
Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
The outward foreign direct investment (FDI) by Indian companies stabilised in 2023-24 (FY24) after witnessing a fall in 2022-23 (FY23). The actual outward FDI inched up slightly to $13.75 billion in FY24 from $13.49 billion in the previous financial year (FY23), according to finance ministry data. This stability came after a sharp fall in outward flows in FY23 from $18.52 billion in 2021-22 (FY22).
Road construction witnessed a near 60 per cent year-on-year jump in the first two months of financial year 2021-22 (FY22), despite restrictions being imposed in the wake of the second wave of Covid-19. Around 1,470 km of roads were constructed during the first two months of the current fiscal, as against 847 km in the corresponding period last year, according to official figures. However, these are provisional numbers as the state public works departments of Maharashtra and Goa are yet to provide data.
Passenger Vehicle makers are likely to see their cumulative earnings at an operating level erode by Rs 1,800-2,000 crore in the year ending March 2022 on account of the shortage of semiconductors, rating agency Icra said at a webinar on Wednesday. The industry, it pointed out, is estimated to lose production of 500,000 units at the end of FY22 due to the chronovc shortage the chip, which is critical in safety, entertainment and the various other smart features of a car. "In absence of the chip crisis, the industry volumes are likely to have exceeded the all-time peak annual volumes." Icra has pared its growth estimates for the PV market from the earlier 10-14 per cent to 8-11 per cent now in FY22.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has assured Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman that the Rs 12.05-trillion gross borrowing programme for FY22 will go through smoothly.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday said the central bank has developed an innovative artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) based model MuleHunter.ai to address the growing issue of mule bank accounts that are often used for committing financial fraud. Developed by the Reserve Bank Innovation Hub, the new initiative is piloted with two public sector banks.
A British brokerage on Tuesday cut India's FY22 GDP growth estimate by a sharp 0.80 per cent to 9.2 per cent, saying the economic impact of the second wave of infections has been deeper than initially expected. Barclays chief India economist Rahul Bajoria also mentioned the slow pace of vaccinations in the country and the rolling lockdowns across many states for the estimate. It can be noted that last month has seen a slew of similar forecasts from analysts, even as the RBI maintained its estimate of a 10.5 per cent growth in real GDP.
A BEST electric bus, traveling at a speed of 46 kmph, collided with a crowd in Kurla, Mumbai, killing seven people and injuring 42 others. The driver, Sanjay More, has been arrested for reckless driving. The accident has raised concerns about speed limits and training for drivers of automatic transmission buses.
While the tax-to-GDP ratio of 9.88 per cent has been assumed for FY21, the same as last year, when it touched a decadal low, for FY22 a ratio of 10.7 per cent has been assumed, an average of the last five years.
Temasek is nearing a deal to acquire a 10% per cent stake in Haldiram Snacks Foods, valued at $10 billion.
Wipro founder-chairman Azim Premji believes the Indian IT industry revenues will grow in double digits in the current financial year. Throughout the pandemic, which saw lockdown measures to curtail the spread of the virus, the information technology industry has kept the world running and has also adapted to the changes, Premji said, speaking at an event of the Bombay Chartered Accountants' Society on Tuesday evening. As per Nasscom, the IT industry revenues stood at $194 billion in FY21. The lobby group has ceased giving estimates of the topline growth a few years ago.
The filing of Swiggy's DRHP has led to direct comparisons with Zomato, which is a direct competitor in food delivery and the fast-growing quick-commerce segment where Blinkit (owned by Zomato) faces off against Instamart (and Zepto). In Q-commerce, Flipkart, Amazon, Reliance and Big Basket are all entering the space. All of them have deep pockets, hence competitive intensity will rise going forward.
Of the total 199 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) listed this year so far, 22 had an issue size of less than Rs 10 crore, which the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) will no longer allow in the listed ecosystem after its recent consultation paper. The market regulator on Tuesday proposed an overhaul of the rules governing the initial public offerings (IPOs) of SMEs and corporate governance norms for listed SMEs, following concerns over 'systemic risk' seen in the ecosystem with instances of fund diversion and price manipulation.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the GDP forecast for the current financial year at 9.5 per cent and flagged global semiconductor shortages, elevated commodity prices and potential global financial market volatility as downside risks to economic growth. In his address after the three-day meeting of the rate-setting panel, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said recovery in aggregate demand gathered pace in August-September, and it is reflected in high-frequency indicators, like railway freight traffic; port cargo; cement production; electricity demand; e-way bills; GST and toll collections. "The ebbing of infections, together with improving consumer confidence, has been supporting private consumption," he said, and added the pent-up demand and the festival season should give further fillip to urban demand in the second half of the financial year.
Reserve Bank on Wednesday said it expects retail inflation at 5.2 per cent in the first half of the current fiscal and revised downwards the target to 5 per cent for the quarter ended March. While headline inflation at 5 per cent in Feb 2021 remains within the tolerance band, some underline constituents are testing the upper tolerance level. Going forward, the food inflation trajectory will critically depend on the temporal and special progress of southwest monsoon in the 2021 season, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Wednesday while announcing the first monetary policy for the current fiscal. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent to support growth in the current situation.
The county's largest IT company TCS on Friday reported a 7.2 per cent jump in December quarter net to Rs 8,701 crore on a consolidated basis, and seemed to suggest the worst is behind by projecting double-digit revenue growth for FY22. The company, a cash cow for Tata Sons, saw a 5.4 per cent growth in revenue at Rs 42,015 crore for the quarter. Operating profit margin came in at 26.6 per cent despite implementing wage hikes, after consistently missing the 26-28 per cent aspirational band for many quarters.
After a successful tie up in traditional ICE and strong hybrid models, Suzuki and Toyota are now set to take their partnership to the next level: the electric vehicle segment. Both the Japanese auto giants recently announced a plan to produce Suzuki eVX-based SUV which will be sold under Toyota brand across the globe. This electric SUV, bearing Toyota's logo, will go for production at Suzuki Motor Group (SMG) facility in Hansalpur, Gujarat beginning the spring of 2025, marking the first EV launch for both companies in India.
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
Whether nominal or real, India's investment rate needs to increase by 3 to 4 percentage points of GDP to support 8 per cent real growth, recommends Nikhil Gupta.
If there is a decline in the number of Indian students pursuing higher studies in Canada due to the ongoing diplomatic tensions between the two countries, it may have implications for Indian banks operating in the North American country, senior bank officials said.
Honda Cars India (HCIL) net profit dropped by 52.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 661.4 crore in 2023-24 (FY24), primarily due to deferred tax of Rs 359.8 crore, according to the annual results submitted to the Registrar of Companies (RoC) and reviewed by Business Standard. In FY24, the company's production increased by 16 per cent Y-o-Y to 134,807 units.
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