Pegging the cost of the covid-19 lockdown at USD 120 billion (approximately Rs 9 lakh crores) or 4 per cent of the GDP, analysts on Wednesday sharply cut their growth estimates and stressed on the need to announce an economic package. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is scheduled to announce its first bi-monthly policy review on April 3, is set to deliver a deep rate cuts and it should also be assumed that the fiscal deficit targets will be breached, analysts said.
A weak margin outlook in the near term and lack of fresh triggers may keep the Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) stock under pressure. The stock, after tepid September quarter (Q2) results and marginal downward revision in earnings estimates, declined 3.5 per cent in trade on Friday. Though consolidated sales of the company, which owns the Goodknight and Cinthol brands, grew 8.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY), its operating profit declined because of the sharp contraction in margins.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a dollar-rupee two-year sell-buy swap auction for $5 billion on March 8, which will suck out rupee liquidity from the system. The swap will be in the nature of a simple sell/buy foreign exchange from the RBI side, in which a bank will buy US dollars from the central bank and simultaneously agree to sell the same amount of US dollars at the end of the swap period. "With a view to elongating the maturity profile of its forward book and smoothen the receivables relating to forward assets, it has been decided to undertake sell/buy swap auction of $5 billion on March 8, 2022," the RBI said in a statement. The auction cut-off will be based on the premium amount in paisa terms up to two decimal points.
Retail inflation inched up to 4.48 per cent in October due to an uptick in food prices, government data showed on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was at 4.35 per cent in September and 7.61 per cent in October 2020.
Tech Mahindra was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 3 per cent, followed by NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty fell 185.60 points to 17,671.65.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
The bank may post a loss of Rs 1,000 crore during October-December 2019-20 quarter, an analyst commented.
'Investors should keep them on their radar and invest over a longer time frame, and expect some of these companies to bite the dust.'
Last month, the National Stock Exchange witnessed 'flash crash', when the Mumbai-based brokerage Emkay Global Financial Services sent the exchange index tumbling as much as 15.5 per cent in just a few seconds, creating a panic among traders.
Other gainers included Nestle India, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, L&T, Axis Bank and Bajaj Auto. On the other hand, TCS, ONGC, Infosys, HDFC and SBI were among the laggards. NSE Nifty surged 121.65 points or 1.03 per cent to 11,889.40.
ICICI Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 3 per cent, followed by ITC, SBI, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Tech Mahindra. NSE Nifty advanced 32 points to 15,856.05.
Despite a shaky Q3, conviction over the stock remained high, with 65 per cent of the analysts polled on Bloomberg retaining their 'buy' recommendation.
Experts believe while escalation with Pakistan might not have a significant impact on trade economics, both India and China have major trade and investments in each others' economies. While the dispute might continue, it could have a temporary effect on the markets.
After unseasonal rains, supply disruptions and pandemic-induced woes pushed retail inflation well over the Reserve Bank's comfort zone in 2020, the scenario is likely to stay that way at least in the short term as economic recovery slowly gains foothold. For most part of this year, pricier food items pushed the retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), higher in the range of 6.58-7.61 per cent, except for March when the reading was 5.91 per cent. Experts believe retail inflation is likely to average around 6.3 per cent this fiscal and mostly will remain sticky going forward owing to pick-up in demand across sectors.
Axis Bank's acquisition of Citibank's consumer finance business for Rs 12,325 crore - the second biggest deal in the Indian banking sector - is seen as a good deal at a good price. The acquisition enables Axis Bank to close the gap with competition in some key segments such as credit cards. At the same time, there are some key issues that are crucial for the deal's success, apart from the fact that it will take some time for Axis to reap the full harvest of its investment.
The sudden movement of the rupee - post the monetary policy - is not a reason to panic, said currency dealers. According to them, a correction was overdue for the rupee that remained the best performing currency in the region for well over a month. The rupee closed at 74.72 a dollar on Friday from its previous close of 74.60. It had dropped 1.52 per cent against the dollar on April 7 after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its monetary policy, committing to buy Rs 1 trillion of bonds in the June quarter. A weak rupee goes well with the export narrative of the government, and is consistent with the RBI's intervention strategy that prevented an appreciation.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
Pessimism largely emanates from the fact that the volume outlook for FY20 isn't encouraging at the moment.
Its production declined for the third consecutive year in financial year 2020-21 (FY21) to an 11-year low, while sales volume contracted for the second year to the lowest since FY15. The company manufactured around 1.08 million vehicles last fiscal, a decline from 1.17 million the previous year, and a steeper fall from its all-time high tally of 1.62 million reported in FY18.
Many investors, who have made money in the rising market of the recent past, are pulling out of equity funds, believing that they can earn more by investing directly.
Inflation print for food articles, as a basket, remained nearly flat at 7.47 per cent during the month.
The broader NSE Nifty fell 78.75 points, or 0.70 per cent, to close at 11,234.55.
Lifting of deposit withdrawal moratorium on March 18 could open flood gates and will require a calibrated approach along with active support and signaling from the RBI, government and investor banks.
The regulator, which is already working on new guidelines to avoid repeat of such incidents, is also investigating whether the flash crash of over 15 per cent could have been avoided or contained at an earlier stage by the exchange.
India's industrial production grew by 1 per cent in December, official data showed on Friday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6 per cent in December 2020.
The decline is attributed to lower salary growth and a rise in households' financial liabilities.
There will be pressure on the fiscal situation, especially at a time when the monsoon can also disappoint. More populist expenditure is on cards if the mandate is a hung Parliament or a coalition government.
Infosys was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying around 7 per cent, followed by TCS, IndusInd Bank, ONGC, HDFC Bank and HCL Tech. On the other hand, ITC, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Bank and Sun Pharma finished in the red.
Use the opportunity to increase equity exposure because these are short-term blips.
Top losers in the Sensex pack included Tata Steel, Vedanta, Maruti, SBI, Coal India, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, HUL, RIL, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC duo, ICICI Bank, M&M, Kotak Bank, and Infosys, falling up to 2.89 per cent.
Top losers in the Sensex pack included Yes Bank, Vedanta, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, L&T, SBI, NTPC, Kotak Bank, HDFC, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, Infosys and ITC, falling up to 4.18 per cent.
Equity investors grew richer by Rs 32.49 lakh crore in 2020 on the back of smart returns in the stock market which had a roller-coaster ride during the year hit by the coronavirus pandemic. The COVID-19 outbreak ravaged lives and livelihoods on a global scale, shuttering businesses and jolting world equities. But amid all the gloom, Indian stock indices gave hope of returning to winning ways towards the latter part of the year.
Dhananjay Sinha, co-head, institutional research, Emkay Global Financial Services tells Business Standard in an interview that even as global commodity prices have softened in response to expectations of weaker global demand, the stronger performance of equities is seemingly pre-empting stronger growth.
RBI is expecting the rupee to stay close to Rs 75 to a dollar, as COVID-19 forces foreign funds to withdraw from emerging markets.
According to JP Morgan, it seems that Jio is willing to go for the jugular in chasing market share if this hurts some of its standing rivals like Vodafone and Idea to a point from where they find it difficult to fight back.
'Quality of management, corporate governance, allocation of capital, full disclosures should form the basis to decide investing in a particular stock.'
From the 30-share basket, 28 scrips suffered losses. Over 200 stocks were at their 52-week low in Tuesday's trade.
The inflation in the food basket spiked to 7.89 per cent in October 2019 as against 5.11 per cent the preceding month.
Combined net profit estimated to grow 14.6% year-on-year, against a 5.7% decline in the Dec 2015 quarter
Total income of Wipro was almost flat at Rs 15,571.4 crore at the end of the first quarter of 2020-21 compared to Rs 15,566.6 crore in the corresponding quarter of the fiscal year 2019-20.
