'Higher interest rates make gold less attractive as it doesn't generate yield.' 'However, with rates set to fall, the tables are turning for gold.'
Gold seems to be losing its glitter in India due to a rise in prices. Demand in Q2CY24 was 149.7 tonnes - a 5 per cent drop compared to 158.1 tonnes in the same period last year, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand by value in April-June 2024 stood at Rs 93,850 crore, up by 14 per cent compared to Rs 82,530 crore in the same period last year.
Samsung is losing the race in India's premium smartphone market as rival Apple continues to increase its dominance in the segment, driven by robust iPhone sales and festival season discounts. Shortly after Apple CEO Tim Cook announced an all-time revenue record in India yet again for the September quarter, the company recorded its best-ever quarter of shipments at four million units in the third quarter of calendar year 2024 (Q3CY24), led by the iPhone 15 and iPhone 13, according to a report by the International Data Corporation (IDC).
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
Indian passenger vehicles market registered record wholesales of 43 lakh units in 2024, with companies like market leader Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Toyota Kirloskar Motor, and Kia posting their best-ever annual domestic sales. The continued growth of SUVs, along with rural markets playing a key role in driving up car sales, helped the industry better the previous best of nearly 41.1 lakh units posted in 2023.
Dalal Street minnows stole the show in 2024, giving handsome returns to investors, helped by a largely optimistic trend in the stock market and impressive retail investors' participation. Analysts attributed the positive trend in the equity markets, where the benchmark indices shattered many records this year, to robust domestic liquidity, strong fundamentals of the Indian economy, and policy continuity.
The tailwind of low price erosion in the US generics market, seen by domestic pharmaceutical companies in calendar year 2023 (CY23), may be reversing slowly, caution analysts. According to the latest data from US-based Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMMS), price erosion in calendar year 2024 (CY24) on a year-to-date (YTD) basis stood at a high of 15 per cent in the oral solid dosage (OSD) segment compared to a low of 1 per cent in CY23. This erosion, according to a report by Antique Stock Broking, was the highest in the last three years.
The calendar year 2024 is set to go down as the best year for initial public offerings (IPOs) in terms of funds raised. Following the IPOs of food delivery major Swiggy and two other companies slated for next week, this year's total will reach nearly Rs 1.2 trillion, going past 2021's record tally of Rs 1.19 trillion. Swiggy's Rs 11,327 crore IPO, the sixth-largest in India, and solar energy firm Acme Solar Holdings' Rs 2,900 crore IPO opened on Wednesday (Nov 6), while health-tech firm Sagility India's Rs 2,106 crore IPO opened a day earlier.
Rekha Jhunjhunwala's net worth has increased by more than 7 per cent, or Rs 2,865 crore, compared to less than 1 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex.
The recent blip in housing sales on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis should not worry investors as the long-term prospects of real estate stocks remain on a strong foundation, according to analysts. In the first half of the calendar year 2024 (H1CY24), realty stocks surged up to 104 per cent. This sharp run should be used to book partial profit in related stocks, suggested Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities.
ABB reported a weak quarter. Revenue was at Rs 2,910 crore, up only 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), with operating profit at Rs 540 crore, up 23 per cent and net profit at Rs 440 crore.
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
Analysts are advising a cautious stance on the steel sector due to a combination of factors. The major one is that China has maintained momentum on steel exports in CY24 and there could also be domestic over-supply in the medium-term. Trade data for Jan-Feb'24 shows that China's finished steel exports rose 31 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 15.9 MT.
India's steel market is out of step with global trends. Global demand is weak with China at a huge supply surplus to its domestic demand, pushing down global steel prices. India's domestic demand for steel is strong, given the continuing infrastructure push and is likely to accelerate as urbanisation improves, and the auto sector continues to grow alongside the infrastructure push.
In calendar year 2024, the stock price of Trent has zoomed 160% As compared to the 18% rally in the BSE Sensex during the same period. It has outperformed the market in the past 10 consecutive years.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
Shares of auto component major, Samvardhana Motherson International, has gained 11.5 per cent on the bourses after the company approved the qualified institutions placement (QIP) issue and announced the calculation methodology for its compulsorily convertible debentures, or CCDs, into equity shares. Analysts cite strong investor response to the issue that has kept the sentiment positive for the stock. Brokerages, however, have a mixed view on the outlook for the auto parts supplier.
ABB India's March quarter results (Q1CY24) were led by strong margin performance. Revenue was, however, largely in line with estimates at Rs 3,080 crore (up 28 per cent Y-o-Y and up 12 per cent Q-o-Q). The growth was across electrification (30 per cent Y-o-Y), process automation (73 per cent Y-o-Y) and robotics & motion (8 per cent Y-o-Y).
India's defence sector presents an ordering opportunity worth $138 billion between fiscal years 2023-24 (FY24) and FY32, said a latest note by Nomura, which has initiated coverage on two defence-related players - Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) and Bharat Electronics (BEL) - with a 'buy' rating. The research and broking house sees an upside potential of 28 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively in these two stocks from the current levels.
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) is set to acquire Haleon's global portfolio of consumer healthcare brands in the nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) category outside of the US. DRL will pay a total consideration of 500 million, including an upfront cash consideration of 458 million and contingent cash payments up to 42 million based on performances in CY25 and CY26. DRL will acquire the portfolio through the purchase of shares of Northstar Switzerland SARL, a Haleon group firm.
'Though one cannot paint the entire microcap basket with the same brush, investors need to be careful now as to what they're buying.'
The June quarter is usually considered as a seasonally strong period for the IT sector.
Benchmark equity indices ended marginally higher on Thursday, trimming most of their intra-day gains, as investors turned cautious ahead of the quarterly results of IT behemoths TCS and Infosys later in the day. Announcement of the US inflation data and domestic macroeconomic numbers also forced investors to remain on the sidelines. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 63.47 points or 0.09 per cent to settle at 71,721.18.
Smallcap mutual funds recorded net outflows for the first time in 30 months in March as investors pulled out money after the markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), warned against "froth" in the mid and smallcap space. Active equity mutual fund (MF) schemes raked in Rs 22,600 crore in March. The March inflow is 16 per cent lower than the two-year high inflow of Rs 26,860 crore in February, shows data from the Association of MFs in India (Amfi).
Shares of Le Travenues, which operates online travel booking platform ixigo, soared 78 per cent on their market debut (June 18) and surged 80.4 per cent in the three days over their issue price. Ixigo has joined competitors EaseMyTrip and Yatra on the bourses. Analysts believe the blockbuster response to ixigo may lead to greater scrutiny of the financial performance of other online travel aggregators (OTAs) like Easy Trip Planners, and Yatra Online.
Among the Sensex firms, Wipro jumped over 6 per cent, the most among the frontline companies. HCL Technologies, Tata Motors, Maruti, Tata Steel, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro and JSW Steel were the other major winners. State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank were among the laggards.
The move to demerge the hotel business into a separate entity by ITC has brought back focus on hotel stocks, which have already seen a good run thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). Analysts believe there could be more gains in store over the next one year for the stocks in this sector, but suggest investors put in money on a correction only from a long-term perspective. Hotel stocks, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, have seen a good run as travel picked up post Covid in India. Not only have the room rents increased, the occupancy, too, has surged.
Global fund managers remain bullish on the Japanese stock markets, which is now their most preferred destination in the Asian region. Both Morgan Stanley and Jefferies in their recent reports, have cited their preference for the Land Of The Rising Sun, which is fast becoming the land of the rising equities, too.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
Passenger vehicle sales are expected to experience muted growth in the current financial year.
Strong demand in the domestic market, coupled with an increase in raw material prices, is pushing up steel prices. According to SteelMint, a market intelligence and price reporting firm, the list price of flat steel has seen an increase of Rs 750-2,000 per tonne for October deliveries. The long steel price witnessed an increase of Rs 1,500 per tonne towards the end of September.
For the smart phone industry, it has been a lacklustre quarter of CY2024, with sales falling by 3-4 per cent over the same period last year, according to Counterpoint Research projections. However, with the launch of many new models in Q1 of CY24, overall shipments grew year-on-year by 10-12 per cent. In CY23 shipments remained flat, ending the year with 152 million units.
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
Notwithstanding robust volume growth and a strong performance from Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Tata Motors, the country's second-largest automobile (auto) manufacturer by market capitalisation, disappointed the Street with its January-March quarter (Q4) results for 2023-24 (FY24). While consolidated revenues saw a 13 per cent increase, lower-than-expected realisations in the Indian operations weighed down overall performance.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
HCL Technologies was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 5.58 per cent, followed by Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, NTPC and Wipro. In contrast, Nestle, Bharti Airtel, Maruti and ITC were among the laggards.
Since its results, the stock of bottling and beverage distribution company Varun Beverages (VBL) is up 7 per cent on the back of a strong 2022-23 January-March quarter performance, robust outlook, and revision in profit estimates. Given the sharp uptick, it is now part of the trillion-rupee club, with its market capitalisation at Rs 1.01 trillion. The stock is one of the best performers in the consumer space as well as the S&P BSE 200, of which it is a constituent.
The margins of tyre manufacturers could come under pressure given the rise in rubber prices and the moderating demand for tyres. In the past three quarters, the revenue growth for listed tyre companies has moderated from low to mid-single-digit on account of factors such as lower demand in replacement segments, weak export markets and the decline in the average selling prices to car makers (OEMs). Demand trends could remain muted in the near term, given the weak passenger vehicle replacement demand, assuming a typical replacement cycle of 3-5 years, and demand moderation in the OEM segment.
'The Fed rate will peak in the range of 5.1-5.3 per cent during the second quarter of CY23 and will most likely stay there for a while before rate cuts start in CY24.'
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