Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Saturday said that the market forces decide the value of rupee with respect to the US dollar and the central bank is not worried about day-to-day movement of the currency value.
Defying the bearish sentiment in the markets on Monday, ICICI Bank's share price rose by 2 per cent, reaching an intraday high of Rs 1,234.4 per share on the BSE. With a 1.5 per cent gain at the close, the stock emerged as the top performer on both the BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 indices.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
Domestic passive mutual fund (MF) schemes will have to sell around Rs 1,500 crore worth of ITC Hotels shares once the demerged entity lists on the exchanges, according to estimates. Passive MF schemes - especially those tracking the Nifty 50 and Sensex - will have to offload their holdings in ITC Hotels as the stock will be excluded from the indices.
Although a one-off tax provision negatively impacted the bottom line, HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC) posted an excellent operational performance in Q2FY25. The equity quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) growth was 14.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). And, equity AUM market share rose 50 basis points (bps) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 12.9 per cent.
Call centres, once the engine room of India's BPO exports, are evolving too. Depending on the complexity, 30 to 50 per cent of voice and chat volumes are now handled by conversational AI.
Shriram Finance's (SHFL's) profit after tax (PAT) rose 10 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 2,140 crore in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25).
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) declined after the information technology (IT) major reported a 1.3 per cent sequential drop in net profit for the March quarter, prompting several brokerages to cut their target prices. The TCS stock fell as much as 1.26 per cent during the day to Rs 3,205 per share.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Infosys, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and NTPC were among the biggest laggards among Sensex shares. Nestle, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and ITC were among the gainers.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
Indian Hotels reported strong consolidated revenue growth of 29 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25), led by revenue per available room, or RevPAR, growth of 15 per cent. The average room rate, or ARR, was up 13 per cent and occupancy improved 120 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y on a standalone business. Like-for-like revenue growth was 15 per cent Y-o-Y, while TajSats (airline catering) grew by 18 per cent Y-o-Y.
States' borrowing cost fell for the second consecutive week on Monday, with the weighted average cut-off easing by 4 bps to 7.67 per cent from 7.71 per cent in the last auction when it slid by 7 bps. The yield on the benchmark 10-year G-secs also declined in the week by 4 bps to 7.23 per cent from 7.27 per cent last Tuesday, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The weighted average cut-off of the 10-year state debt also eased to 7.61 per cent at Monday's auctions from 7.66 per cent last week.
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU) disappointed the market even though some analysts said the Q3FY25 results were in line. Most analysts cut margin estimates. The insurer reported M9FY25 growth of 8.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in value of new business (VNB) premium to Rs 1,575 crore, while total annual premium equivalent (APE) grew 27.2 per cent to Rs 6,910 crore.
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday hiked repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent in order to control the rising inflation, keeping in line with the aggressive policies of central banks and the volatile markets prevalent across economies. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced the rate hike today. In the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that started on Wednesday, five of the members of the MPC voted to hike the key lending rate, repo rate, by 50-basis points (bps).
The unexpected interest rate hike by the RBI on Wednesday will have the banking system on average making a 10-15 bps gains on the yields, with private banks making larger gains as 57 per cent of their loans are linked to external benchmark rate and 40 per cent to the marginal cost of lending rates, as per a report. Stating that lenders and borrowers will face volatile times with the Reserve Bank raising the repo rate by 40 bps to 4.40 per cent and the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 bps on May 4 in an off-cycle policy move, India Ratings said the market rates had already been moving higher before the move. The 364-day T-bills have moved up 120 bps and 10-year G-sec by 140 bps since May 2020, when the repo rate was cut to a record 4 per cent, which led to an expectation of a faster and sharper rise in interest rates in the system but the central bank stayed the course to support the fragile economy battered by the pandemic.
The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.3 per cent in the current fiscal year, a tad lower than the government's estimate of 6.4 per cent, owing to several factors such as weak demand, SBI research report said on Wednesday. According to the first advance estimates (FAE) of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), released on Tuesday, India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, because of poor showing by the manufacturing and subdued investments.
Dabur's performance in the July-September quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25) was weak but in line with consensus. Consolidated revenue declined 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to a temporary adjustment in General Trade (GT) inventory. Indian revenue declined 7.6 per cent, while international business grew 13 per cent Y-o-Y in constant currency (CC) terms.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
Bank credit growth is expected to moderate this financial year after a robust 16 per cent estimated for last financial year, driven by strong economic activity and retail credit demand. There are three reasons for this: a statistical high-base effect given the strong growth seen last financial year, revision in risk weights by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and relatively slower economic activity.
'However, this process will take some time. Depending on the approval timeline, it may span a few quarters.'
After declining to a three-year low in FY24, the private sector investment is expected to fall further in the current financial year, India Ratings said in a research note.. The investments in the private sector are likely to plummet to below 11 per cent of the GDP in FY25, based on the trends from the latest national accounts data and company fillings, it noted.
Retail inflation slipped to seven-month low of 3.61 per cent in February mainly due to easing prices of vegetables, eggs, and other protein-rich items, creating space for the RBI to go for another cut in interest rate next month.
Despite state-owned Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) reporting an improvement in value of new business (VNB) margin in Q1FY25, analysts believe the growth has not been satisfactory in the context of the insurer's medium-term targets on margins. VNB margin is a measure of profitability of life insurance companies. LIC's VNB margin improved by 20 basis points (bps) to 13.9 per cent in Q1FY25 over the same period last year due to a change in the business mix of the insurer.
'We have opened 100 branches in the last one and a half years. Our manpower is also in place.'
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance's (Chola) share has yielded one of the best returns in the last month. The company has sustained assets under management (AUM) growth at 7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), and 35 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q1FY25. Scaling up of new businesses now contributes to 13 per cent of loans (vs 10 per cent in Q1FY24).
The data for individual weighted received premium (WRP) showed divergent trends for life insurers in December 2024. Overall, the industry's individual WRP grew 4.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y); LIC's individual WRP declined 13 per cent while private players saw 11.4 per cent growth.
'Young investors should focus more on equity, while retired senior citizens should prioritise fixed income.' 'Mid-career investors should aim for a balanced allocation.'
ABB reported a weak quarter. Revenue was at Rs 2,910 crore, up only 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), with operating profit at Rs 540 crore, up 23 per cent and net profit at Rs 440 crore.
Marico may buck the industry trend with the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major reporting strong growth and favourable commentary in a weak quarter for the industry. The company reported consolidated revenue growth of 8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q2FY25. Domestic revenue growth was 8 per cent Y-o-Y with 5 per cent volume growth (4 per cent in Q1FY25).
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
'Earlier, our cost of funds was higher than most in the peer group.'
Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
The liquidity deficit in the banking system crossed Rs 2 trillion again on Monday, despite the second instalment of cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction coming into effect from December 28.
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