Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
IMF's Chief Economist Gita Gopinath will leave her job in January next year and return to the prestigious Harvard University, according to the global financial institution.
People like Manmohan Singh and P Chidambaram, who as finance minister had fully supported the NPS, refuse to exercise their moral and political influence to try and stop Ashok Gehlot and others hell-bent on wrecking the states' finances, notes Virendra Kapoor.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will on Monday meet chief ministers and state finance ministers to discuss measures to attract private investments to help boost the economy. Finance secretary T V Somanathan said the meeting comes in the backdrop of strong economic recovery post the two COVID waves, and the central government has made a big push in Capex. The focus of this interaction will be on state-level issues, opportunities and challenges, which will enable us to go to a higher trajectory of investment and growth, he said.
The number of Indians over 15 either working or looking for work is lower as a percentage than in the United States, China, Bangladesh or Pakistan, points out Aakar Patel.
Kerala has again emerged as the top ranking state in terms of overall health performance among larger states, while Uttar Pradesh is the worst, according to the fourth Health Index launched by Niti Aayog.
Industry players believe the new DFI model will be initially risk capital, which will then be used to mobilise additional resources from development agencies such as World Bank.
Registering a jump of 10 places in the rankings, Uttar Pradesh occupied the second position in 2019 as against 12th in 2018.
The country's m-cap is now 4.3x India's, whose m-cap grew just 17 per cent to $2.5 trillion in CY20 -- 2.4 per cent of the global m-cap.. Ashley Coutinho reports.
Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari on Wednesday pitched for formulating a policy for using the Reserve Bank of India's rising foreign exchange reserves for funding road projects, saying the country needs low cost finance for such infrastructure projects. Addressing a virtual event organised by industry body CII, Gadkari further said that the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) should also have a financial arm like the power ministry's Power Finance Corporation (PFC). "We have a surplus of dollar reserves in the country. I have decided to talk with the RBI Governor, about how we can formulate a policy by which we can use this foreign exchange reserves for development of infrastructure in the country," he said.
Pakistan will remain on the 'grey list' of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) until it further demonstrates that action is being taken against Jamaat-ud-Dawah chief Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammed founder Masood Azhar who are listed as global terrorists by the United Nations, the global anti-money laundering and terror financing watchdog said on Thursday.
India improved its rank on six out of the 10 parameters relating to starting and doing business in a country.
North Block is concerned that when India is trying to attract more investment, putting up restrictions on audit firms could create an avoidable bad advertisement.
'Health will continue to be at the centre of the government's attention as it underpins economic recovery and our collective well being.'
India's growth projection released by the latest World Economic Outlook remains unchanged from its previous WEO (World Economic Outlook) update of July this summer but is a three-percentage point in 2021 and 1.6 percentage point drop from its April projections. According to the latest WEO update, released ahead of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, the world is expected to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2021 and 4.9 per cent in 2022.
Fitch Ratings has cut India's economic growth forecast to 8.7 per cent for the current fiscal but raised GDP growth projection for FY23 to 10 per cent, saying the second COVID-19 wave delayed rather than derail the economic recovery. In its APAC Sovereign Credit Overview, Fitch Ratings said India's 'BBB-/Negative' sovereign rating "balances a still-strong medium-term growth outlook and external resilience from solid foreign- reserve buffers, against high public debt, a weak financial sector and some lagging structural factors". The 'Negative' outlook, it said, reflects uncertainty over the debt trajectory following the sharp deterioration in India's public finances due to the pandemic shock.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its economic growth forecast for India to 9.5 per cent for the fiscal year to March 31, 2022 as the onset of a severe second COVID-19 wave cut into recovery momentum. This forecast for 2021-22 is lower than the 12.5 per cent growth in GDP that IMF had projected in April before the second wave took a grip. For 2022-23, IMF expects economic growth of 8.5 per cent, larger than the 6.9 per cent it had projected in April.
'Unemployment barely figures in the Budget except as a derived demand from the industry and infrastructure.' 'There is no effort at direct attack on unemployment.'
The pandemic has led to the International Finance Corporation massively ramping up its impact investment in the country - its largest client nation globally - at $1.7 billion as of June, a 51 per cent rise over the past 12 months, the largest developmental lender into third world private sector said on Tuesday. This is nearly half of its investment in the whole of South Asia since the pandemic, which touched $3.8 billion as of June 2021, it said. "Our total commitment to India, which is our largest client country globally, at the end of June stood at $1.7 billion representing an increase of over 51 per cent from last year," IFC vice-president for Asia and the Pacific region Alfonso Garcia Mora said in a statement.
The finance ministry said the sharp inflows last fiscal were due to the government's policy initiatives and economic recovery.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T), India's largest construction and engineering player, has lost as many as 14 large orders in the country because companies that don't possess adequate technical expertise and experience, of late, have won the projects by bidding lower, claimed A M Naik, non-executive chairman of L&T. But the company has made up for the losses by winning projects overseas, where it has acquired a sizeable market share amid tough competition from large global players, he said.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent, from 11 per cent earlier, and warned of risk to the outlook from further waves of COVID pandemic. The agency lowered the growth outlook saying that a severe second COVID-19 outbreak in April and May led to lockdowns imposed by states and sharp contraction in economic activity. "We forecast growth of 9.5 per cent this fiscal year from our March forecast of 11 per cent," S&P said.
Regional States will be worried that the US's nascent engagement with the Taliban behind the fig leaf of humanitarian aid enables the return of US intelligence personnel to Afghanistan, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Net job creation in the economy fell by 16.9 lakh in FY21 over the previous fiscal, shows an SBI Research analysis of EPFO payroll data. However, the FY21 numbers are better than the FY20 net job creation, which had declined by 28.9 lakh, further cementing the view that the economy is not creating new employment opportunities. The latest EPFO data shows that net new EPF subscribers stood at 94.5 lakh in FY21, and NPS added 5.82 lakh, taking the cumulative net addition to 100.4 lakh, which is marginally down from 102.3 lakh in FY20.
India's GDP estimates for 2020-21 show that the economy is expected to perform much better than earlier projections by different agencies, indicating a sustained V-shape post-lockdown recovery, experts said. The first Advance Estimates (AE) by the National Statistics Office (NSO) has projected a contraction of 7.7 per cent in the real GDP during 2020-21. This was better than the projections by certain international agencies like the IMF and World Bank.
It is a difficult problem and will require the Union, state governments and civil society, meaning NGOs, to work together, points out Aakar Patel.
Despite being a neighbour, Pakistan has never accounted for more than 2 per cent of India's total exports, and its share in India's total imports is less than 1 per cent. On the other hand, bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh has increased five times.
'While growth will bounce back from the current sub-5 per cent, it will stay lower than the already inadequate long-term average of 6.6 per cent,' notes T N Ninan.
Situated at a height of 15,200 feet above sea level, the pass sits on the top of a craggily formed Himalayan range that separates the Tibetan plateau from the Indian sub-continent.
The Indian economy is expected to grow around 10 per cent during the current financial year on the likelihood of fewer COVID-19-linked supply disruptions and buoyancy in the global economy, said Poonam Gupta, director general of economic think-tank NCAER. The real challenge, however, would be to sustain a growth rate of 7-8 per cent in years to come, she said. "We could see annual growth in the ballpark range of about 10 per cent. "The reasons for this perceived optimism are: fewer supply disruptions; increased pent-up demand in the traditional and contact-intensive services; and a buoyant global economy.
According to data compiled by the World Bank, the UK's economy grew to $2.82 trillion and the French economy expanded to $2.78 trillion in 2018, against India's $2.73 trillion, showed the data.
'The honourable prime minister virtually handpicked me for the Amritsar East seat.' 'Amit Shahji announced that if I am elected, the whole of Punjab will be drugs free.'
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. In a report, the global rating agency said the challenges for banking sector posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave in the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). "Fitch Ratings revised down India's real GDP for FY22 by 280bp to 10 per cent, underlining our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation in FY22," it said. Fitch believes that rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence; however, without it, economic recovery would remain vulnerable to further waves and lockdowns.
Former CAG Rajiv Mehrishi says Centre has held back a report he submitted to the President, to end what he called "a nightmare of accounts that militates against good governance".
Indian economist Kalpana Kochhar, who heads the Human Resources Department of the International Monetary Fund, is leaving the organisation to join the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the IMF announced on Wednesday. Kochhar, who served in various senior positions during her three decades at the IMF, will retire on July 30, it said.
"The most successful governments in Afghanistan tend to be those who have the biggest tents, which would include all communities and therefore leave all communities satisfied after a point and do not create massive resentments. Now, this is not a government which I would imagine would successfully govern Afghanistan," Dalrymple, the historian said.
India's rank inched up by just one position to 130 in last year's Doing Business Survey by the World Bank.
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on Friday retained Pakistan on its 'grey list' for failing to check money laundering, leading to terror financing, and asked Islamabad to investigate and prosecute senior leaders and commanders of United Nations-designated terror groups, including Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar.
India is looking at near close to double-digit growth this year and the country will be one of the fastest-growing economies, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said. The minister also emphasised that she expects the economic growth next year to be in the range of 7.5-8.5 per cent, which will be sustained for the next decade.
India's wholesale price-based inflation is at a 30-year high, leading to a "very alarming" situation for the country, former World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu said on Thursday. He, however, doesn't see any risk of hyperinflation, but cautioned that if retail inflation follows wholesale prices, it might lead to "inflationary crisis". Participating in a virtual event organised by the Asia Society, India, Basu said the inflationary situation in India is at a "very risky bend".
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