Gold prices are expected to remain volatile next week as investors track geopolitical developments in the Middle East and key macroeconomic data releases that could shape the sentiment in the domestic market, analysts said.
Bajaj Finance, Bharat Electronics, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, NTPC, Trent, Asian Paints and Axis Bank were the major laggards among Sensex stocks. However, Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Hindustan Unilever and Reliance Industries were among the gainers.
Gold prices on Tuesday surged Rs 723 to touch an all-time high of Rs 110,312 per 10 grams in the domestic futures market, tracking strong global cues amid growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. Traders said weak US labour market data has strengthened the case for monetary policy easing, putting pressure on the dollar and boosting demand for the safe-haven asset.
Apart from the emotional value attached to buying gold, the yellow metal offers protection against inflation, interest rate spikes, currency and geopolitical risks, says Anamika Pareek.
'Expect FPIs to continue selling for several months until the rupee stabilises.'
'Of the 20 trading days of January till January 28, FIIs have been selling for 19 trading days'. 'When did FIIs withdraw money with this kind of intensity?' 'It never happened. It's the first. It did not happen even during the 2008-2009 financial crisis when Lehman went under.' 'Even then you did not have like a 19-day selling spree from the FIIs.'
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
The value of FPIs (Foreign Portfolio Investors) holding in Indian equities reached $738 billion in the three months ended December 2023, marking a surge of 13 per cent from the preceding quarter, driven by the strong performance of the domestic stock market, according to a report by Morningstar. The value of FPIs investment was at $651 billion in the September quarter of the current fiscal. On a year-on-year basis, the value of such investments rose 26 per cent from $584 billion in December 2022.
Overseas fundraising by Indian firms is experiencing a robust revival in 2024, following a lacklustre 2023. This resurgence is primarily driven by strong demand for high-yield bonds from international investors amid improving liquidity conditions and reduced hedging costs. Indian companies raised ~32,619 crore through overseas bonds in the first half of 2024, surpassing the total amount raised via such instruments in the entire 2023, which stood at ~31,218 crore, according to PRIME Database. In comparison, ~45,237 crore was raised in 2022 and ~1.05 trillion was secured in 2021.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investment in the domestic debt market in October was the third highest during the current calendar year as foreign investors rushed to lock in higher returns amid global uncertainty and geo-political tensions, market participants said. FPI inflows in debt stood at Rs 6, 322 crore in October against Rs 768 crore in September, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). Market participants said that the majority of the inflows were channelled through corporate bonds.
After Bandhan MF's US Treasury Bond 0-1 year Fund of Fund (FoF), Aditya Birla Sun Life (ABSL) MF has come out with US Treasury 1-3 Year Bond ETFs FoF and 3-10 Year Bond ETFs FoF. US bonds, which generally offer low yields, have turned attractive post the 525-basis point hike in US interest rates. According to Bloomberg data, the 1-year and 2-year US treasury yields now stand at 5.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. Although the yields remain lower than what Indian government bonds offer, the differential has come down steeply.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
Despite the narrowing spread of yields between the benchmark 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury bond, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are continuing to invest in the domestic debt market this year -- a trend backed by a stable currency and a less volatile bond market. FPIs have been net buyers in the debt market in 2023 so far, marking the first time since 2019. The yield spread between the 10-year Indian government bond and the 10-year US Treasury note stood at 3.14 per cent on August 8 - the narrowest in over a decade.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling spree continued as they dumped Indian equity worth over Rs 5,800 crore this month so far on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPIs) selling spree continues as they pulled out over Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first three trading sessions of November on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
One of the key factors contributing to the decline in the value of the rupee against the US dollar is the tightening yield spread between the 10-year India government bond and the US government bond. The yield on 10-year Indian government bonds is now only 295 basis points higher than that of US 10-year treasury bonds, the lowest since January 2007. Lower spread means lower incentive for foreign investors to invest in rupee assets, which adversely affects foreign capital inflows into the country and weighs on the rupee-dollar exchange rate.
JP Morgan's decision last week to include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite from June 2024 may be a sort of blessing for India, as the move is estimated to result in an inflow of $25 billion of foreign portfolio investments into the country. The development comes at a time when the spread between the benchmark 10-year government of India bond and the 10-year US government bond has declined to its lowest level in more than 17 years. Low yield spreads make Indian bonds less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
Gold prices are struggling and are down 18 per cent from their March highs. But stock prices have fallen even more. As a result, the precious metal has begun to outperform equities - both in the domestic market and international markets. Gold prices are up 2.6 per cent in the domestic market in the current calendar year (CY22) so far, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), compared to a 1.7 per cent decline in the Sensex year-to-date (YTD).
Expect heightened volatility and stress to hit the markets. Caution may be the need of the hour, alerts Akash Prakash.
Despite its recent underperformance, gold must be a part of your portfolio.
Saving for your future, older self is one of the main reasons why you should invest. Since one day you will either be unwilling or unable to work, investing allows you to have a pool of resources you can draw upon in old age.
The US treasury bond has been perhaps the most resilient feature of the American economy.
The Tamil Nadu-based broker is member of commodities exchange from Dharapuram, some say bonds are most likely to be fake.
China is also the largest owner of the US Treasury securities.
The nearly one trillion dollar EU-IMF package to bail-out Greece from its sovereign debt crisis may impact China, as it would limit options for Beijing to diversify its overseas financial portfolio and may even affect its exports.
According to the US treasury department, India has slashed its holdings to $31.6 billion in February, while it was at $32.7 billion in January.
Turning tail from its worst valuation ever on the world's currency markets, the US Dollar has now gained more than 3% since the start of November.
With huge accumulated foreign exchange reserves at their disposal, developing countries, mainly India, China, Russia, Brazil and Mexico, are giving invaluable reverse aid to the United States, although it is not counted as aid.
The NSE Nifty settled at 10,454.95, down 121.90 points, or 1.15 per cent.
High frequency indicators suggest that a growth recovery is underway, but very tentatively and with weak legs, says Saugata Bhattacharya.
China's forex reserves witnessed an increase of $509.7, a 12.8 per cent rise from 2012, People's Bank of China said.
To select the right platform, get the opinions of a few existing users or browse online for feedback. Select a platform that offers a seamless experience. Check that the platform you are going with is a regulated entity, suggests Sanjay Kumar Singh.
Fall of rupee is not necessarily a bad thing as it will support exports which will help bridge the gap in current account deficit, Chief Executive Officer of Nordea Asset Management Company Allan Polack said.
Despite returns from gold down over 5% in the past three months, it is a good idea to keep this asset class in your portfolio.
US job growth increased at a fairly brisk clip in October and the unemployment rate fell to a fresh six-year low of 5.8 per cent, underscoring the economy's resilience in the face of slowing global demand.
India needs to strengthen its economic growth, says IMF.
As it is a highly liquid asset, central banks can afford to look past its short-term volatility to longer-run average returns.
Global brokerage firm CLSA is positive on India's growth stroy.
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