In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
Fundraising activity in the debt market is gaining momentum ahead of the festival season. Several non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard) are planning to raise at least Rs 5,560 crore in the next two days by issuing bonds, with a greenshoe size of Rs 6,370 crore. Ajay Malglunia, managing director and head of investment grade group at JM Financial, said, "The market likes certainty, the market will gain clarity after the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) policy.
The Sensex finished above the psychologically key 60,000-mark while the Nifty surged past the 18,000-level on Monday on across-the-board buying amid a mixed trend overseas. A depreciating rupee and concerns over the US Federal Reserve hiking rates later this week failed to quell investors' appetite for stocks, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 786.74 points or 1.31 per cent to settle at 60,746.59.
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Tata Steel, Maruti, Infosys, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, Axis Bank, Titan, Reliance Industries, Wipro and Mahindra & Mahindra were the biggest gainers. Sun Pharma, UltraTech Cement, Tata Motors, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India and Nestle were among the laggards.
M&M was the biggest loser in the Sensex chart, falling 6.39 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Nestle India, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, ITC, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank and RIL. On the other hand, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, L&T and Infosys were among the winners, rising up to 2.10 per cent.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings of corporates and domestic macroeconomic data will influence trading in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Foreign funds' trading activity, monthly automobile sales data and global trends would also guide market movement this week, they added. Markets would remain closed on Monday on account of 'Maharashtra Day'.
Among major Sensex shares, PowerGrid fell the most by 2.76 per cent. IndusInd Bank dropped 2.34 per cent, HUL by 2.23 per cent and NTPC by 2.04 per cent. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, HDFC, ITC, Infosys, L&T, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Bank, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra were among the losers. On the other hand, Tata Motors rose the most by 2.94 per cent, followed by Titan which gained 1.26 per cent. Mahindra & Mahindra, SBI and TCS were also among gainers.
Investors may take a 5 to 10 per cent exposure to silver. 'Have a long-term investment horizon when investing in silver ETFs to ride out short-term market fluctuations.'
Smaller stocks have emerged as Dalal Street's favourites in 2023 that has turned out to be a "great year" for equities, rewarding investors with big gains, driven by optimism over the country's macroeconomic fundamentals and heavy retail investors participation. Experts said equity markets are experiencing a prolonged bull run and it is during this time that the midcap and smallcap segments tend to outshine their larger counterparts. Till December 22 this year, the BSE smallcap gauge has jumped 13,074.96 points or 45.20 per cent while the midcap index has surged 10,568.18 points or 41.74 per cent.
Only the top 5 per cent profit makers account for 75 per cent of profits.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
Investors are increasingly turning optimistic about shares of new-age companies. From broad-based 'sell' calls, analysts are giving thumbs up to Zomato, Paytm, and FSN e-Commerce Ventures-owned Nykaa as these companies have shifted focus to sustainable profits. The shares of Zomato hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 126 apiece on the BSE on November 7, having rallied 15.4 per cent in one week.
Nine of the 10 most valued firms faced a combined erosion of Rs 1,87,808.26 crore in market valuation last week, with HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries taking the biggest hit amid an overall weak trend in equities. Last week, the BSE benchmark tumbled 1,538.64 points or 2.52 per cent amid concerns that the US Federal Reserve might raise interest rates further to curb inflation. Fresh foreign fund outflows also dented investor sentiments. Barring ITC, all 10 firms, including Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, ICICI Bank and Hindustan Unilever, were the laggards.
From the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paint, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries and Tata Steel were the biggest gainers. HDFC climbed 2.59 per cent after the housing finance major on Thursday reported a 20 per cent growth in standalone net profit to Rs 4,425 crore for the quarter ending March 2023 on the back of higher interest income. IndusInd Bank, Nestle, Power Grid, ITC, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major laggards.
The rally in PSBs, analysts feel, was more a knee-jerk reaction to the development, and the actual benefits will start to accrue once the addition takes place in 2024. "The actual benefit for banks from the inclusion in JP Morgan's EM Index will accrue from June 2024 onwards. "Until then, the larger fundamentals of the market will dictate the moves. "Once the initial euphoria subsides, bond markets will look to global cues which may trigger fresh selling," said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
JP Morgan's decision last week to include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite from June 2024 may be a sort of blessing for India, as the move is estimated to result in an inflow of $25 billion of foreign portfolio investments into the country. The development comes at a time when the spread between the benchmark 10-year government of India bond and the 10-year US government bond has declined to its lowest level in more than 17 years. Low yield spreads make Indian bonds less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
From the Sensex pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, UltraTech Cement, Power Grid, State Bank of India, ITC, Titan, Tata Motors and ICICI Bank were among the major winners. Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finance, Tech Mahindra, Asian Paints and HDFC were among the major laggards.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty faced heavy drubbing on Thursday, falling over 1 per cent each, in tandem with weak global markets following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance. The 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 878.88 points or 1.40 per cent to settle at 61,799.03. During the day, it tumbled 962.3 points or 1.53 per cent to 61,715.61.
India's prices are rising faster than many of its emerging market peers. The country's inflation print for May at 4.25 per cent is a marked reduction from the levels seen in May 2022 (7.04 per cent). However, even though the inflation rate remains within the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 per cent, with a 2 per cent margin on either side, it continues to be higher than China, Russia, and Brazil.
'Continue with your SIPs to get the benefit of lower average prices in this challenging market environment.'
Kotak Mahindra Bank was the biggest loser from the Sensex pack, skidding 1.83 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, HCL Technologies, IndusInd Bank and Nestle. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan, Infosys, HDFC Bank, HDFC and ITC were the gainers.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Benchmark Sensex pared early losses to close 242 points higher while Nifty settled above the 18,000-mark on Wednesday following gains in IT, oil and select banking stocks amid mixed global trends. Extending gains for a second day, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 242.83 points or 0.40 per cent to close at 61,275.09 with 20 of its constituents ending in the green. The index opened lower at 60,990.05 but later regained foot to touch a high of 61,352.55 in day trade.
Domestic equity investors' wealth eroded by more than Rs 4.43 lakh crore on Monday as fears of a financial contagion triggered by one of the biggest bank failures in the US roiled market sentiments. After a strong opening, Indian stocks went into a tailspin with the benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex tumbling nearly 900 points to close at 58,237.85 points -- sliding for the third straight trading session. The NSE Nifty too declined 258.60 points to end at 17,154.30 points.
'We have a plan to plough back a 'This year in the first half we had profits of more than Rs 31,000 crore.' significant amount of profits this financial year.' 'We have seen this organic plough back of profit is one of best ways to support the equity of the bank.'
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
Stock markets this week would take cues from global trends, the announcement of domestic macroeconomic data such as GDP numbers and foreign fund movement, analysts said. Besides, monthly auto sales and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for manufacturing and services sectors would also influence trading in the market, they added. Benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 1,538.64 points or 2.52 per cent last week amid concerns that the US Federal Reserve might raise interest rates further to curb inflation.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
'If individual stocks start falling 25% to 30% or more, then I doubt how many of them will be able to withstand that (kind of selloff). That is when you'll see panic coming in.'
Continuing its heavy selling spree for the eighth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out nearly Rs 40,000 crore from the Indian equity market in May on fears of an aggressive rate hike by US Federal Reserve that dented investor sentiments. With this, net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities reached at Rs 1.69 lakh crore so far in 2022, data with depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI flows will remain volatile in the emerging markets on account of rising geo-political risk, rising inflation, tightening of monetary policy by central banks, among others, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said.
'We are in a sweet spot.' 'Equity, on a standalone basis, will continue to remain the asset class to stay invested in.'
PowerGrid was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding around 2 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, Reliance, L&T, UltraTech Cement and Bajaj Finance.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
Equity indices fell on Thursday, mirroring weak global market trends following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and hawkish stance. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 337.06 points or 0.57 per cent to settle at 59,119.72. During the day, it tanked 624 points or 1.04 per cent to 58,832.78. The NSE Nifty went lower by 88.55 points or 0.50 per cent to end at 17,629.80.
The Indian equity market is likely to remain under pressure and rangebound over the next few months. This comes as global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve look at a possibility of hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, too, remains data dependent in its endeavour to keep inflation in check and pursue an aggressive monetary policy stance.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
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