Big, listed FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) companies such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Nestl, and Britannia have been top-performing stocks on the bourses in recent weeks. The Nifty FMCG index, which tracks the share prices of the country's top 15 listed FMCG companies, is up 1.9 per cent month-to-date in May compared to a 2.4 per cent decline in the benchmark Nifty 50 in the period.
As the Indian equity markets scale a new high, the gap between stock prices and the underlying corporate earnings has widened to its highest level in more than 30 years. At its current level, the benchmark BSE Sensex has run up nearly 31 per cent more than the growth in its underlying earnings per share (EPS) in the past 20 years. Most of the divergence between share prices and underlying earnings growth occurred in the past 10 years.
Even as the slowdown in the information technology (IT) services sector deepens, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), as well as oil and gas companies, emerge as the primary drivers of corporate earnings in the country. The IT services sector's share in corporate earnings declined to a five-year low of 17.4 per cent in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), whereas banks and finance companies accounted for 46.5 per cent, and oil and gas firms contributed 16.8 per cent. At their peak, IT services firms like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCLTech, and Wipro represented just over a third of the combined net profit of all listed companies in the Business Standard sample.
The slowdown in private consumption in the economy is taking a toll on the growth of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). The net sales growth of listed FMCG companies hit a 14-quarter low of 2.5 per cent in October-December 2023 (Q3FY24). This is the lowest revenue growth for the industry since the June 2020 quarter, when the FMCG firms in the Business Standard sample had reported a 13.2 per cent Y-o-Y decline in combined net sales owing to the lockdown.
Corporate India reported high double-digit growth in net profit for the fourth consecutive quarter in October-December 2023 (Q3FY24), driven by margin gains from lower prices of raw material and energy.
'You cannot have only one product or one market or one customer segment.'
In August 2021, Nick Read, chief executive of Vodafone Plc at the time, did not mince his words while speaking about the India business in an earnings call. Replying to an analyst's question on Vodafone Idea, a venture with the Aditya Birla Group that had piled on huge debts and worrisome losses, Read described it as a highly stressed situation that "they (Vodafone Idea) are trying to navigate... "We, as a group, try to provide them as much practical support as we can, but I want to make it very clear, we are not putting any additional equity into India.''
The IPO boom in 2023 added four new promoters to the billionaires' list.
The past 18 months have seen a resurgence in the real estate industry, with developers regaining the ground lost to the Covid-19 pandemic. But it is once again adding inventory at a pace faster than sales. The industry's inventory rose by 28 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in H1FY24, com-pared to a 25.5 per cent year-on-year increase in net sales during the same period.
'The focus needs to shift towards the ability to collect payments, particularly in tier-3 to tier-4 areas where acceptance is still lacking.'
'We started affordable housing loans that has good traction and the books have grown to Rs 750 crore as of the end of last quarter.'
The K-shaped economic recovery in India from the pandemic slowdown shows in corporate results as well. The automobile sector, which represents big-ticket consumption, continues to do well and has increased its share in corporate revenues and profits while fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies that sell low-ticket consumer goods are struggling with poor sales and earnings growth. The share of the automobile sector, including makers of auto ancillaries, in corporate net sales rose to a 10-quarter high of 10.05 per cent during July-September 2023 (Q2FY24) from 8.94 per cent a year earlier and 9.75 per cent in Q1FY24.
'Just the amount of work which is there just to become more and more successful in banking. For this to happen you need to have leaders who understand technology.'
Walmart-owned fintech firm PhonePe said it has crossed 500 million lifetime registered users on its platform. With this milestone, 1 in 3 Indians are now on PhonePe. The company said it is the first Indian internet company to have reached this scale globally. This milestone has been achieved in just over 7 years since the PhonePe UPI (Unified Payments Interface) payments launched in August 2016.
The slowdown in corporate revenue growth over the last one year has begun to reflect in India Inc's capital expenditure, or capex. The country's top listed companies are going slow on fresh investment in capacity expansion, in line with a deceleration in their top line growth. The combined fixed assets of the listed companies, excluding banking, finance services and insurance (BFSI) and the government-owned oil & gas firms, were up 10.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during April-September 2023 (H1FY24) - the slowest in 18 months - as against 21.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth in H2FY23 (October 2022-March 2023) and 11.6 per cent growth in the April-September 2022 period (H1FY23).
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Households may be feeling the pinch of higher inflation but corporate India is enjoying record high margins and profits. The combined quarterly net profit of listed companies scaled a new high in the April-June 2023 quarter owing to a sharp rise in operating and net profit. The expansion in margins more than compensated for the slowdown in revenue growth, which slipped into single digits in Q1FY24 after a gap of nine quarters.
The recent surge in crude oil prices could shave off the gains made by India Inc in profit margins in the past few quarters. Worse, it comes at a time when consumer demand in the country is slipping and major global economies are witnessing a slowdown. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the margin expansion accounted for three-fourths of the rise in the listed firms' operating profit between the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY23 and Q1FY24, and only a quarter of profits gains came from revenue growth.
There has been a sharp recovery in the headline corporate earnings in the April-June 2023 quarter (Q1FY24), after a dismal showing by early bird companies. The combined net profit of the 983 listed companies that have declared their quarterly results, so far, was up 64.7 per cent year-on-year to record a high of Rs 2.68 trillion in the first quarter, but growth in earnings remained lopsided because most of the incremental gains came from a handful of companies. Moreover, the quarterly numbers showed a continued slowdown in revenue growth.
The Q1FY24 earnings season has started on a dismal note for corporate India. The early-bird companies' revenue growth has been at a 10-quarter low, while the combined earnings of non-BFSI (banking, financial services, and insurance) companies seem to have hit the ceiling. The numbers suggest corporate India is entirely dependent on BFSI companies and the IT services sector to drive growth in revenue and profit while other sectors are showing signs of stagnation.
'If you want it to grow well and serve the true needs of the economy, it needs a lot of freedom and flexibility, which comes in terms of the reform objective set by the regulator.'
'As our per capita income increases and various demographic segments emerge, the need for various kinds of protection and risk covers will become even more explicit.'
Brokerages expect Nifty50 companies to have cumulatively witnessed strong double-digit growth in their earnings in the first quarter of FY24 (Q1FY24). This growth in the combined earnings is expected to have been driven by banks, automakers, and oil & gas companies. Other sectors may report muted profit growth.
'I'm very much against petrol and diesel....'' 'I travel in an electric car.' 'I have had a really good experience with it.'
Between 1990 and 2019, Alzheimer's-related deaths increased almost five times, data available on the Global Burden of Disease has found.
The regulatory changes brought in by the insurance regulator and the amendments proposed to the Insurance Act by the Centre may herald a new dawn for the sector in India. This may result in insurers bringing out more consumer-led products, top honchos of general insurance companies of the country concurred at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit 2022.
Regulatory capacity, hyperactivity and excessive prescription are the biggest challenges the financial sector is facing, said Meleveetil Damodaran, former chairperson, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). Speaking at the Business Standard BFSI Summit on Wednesday, Damodaran highlighted the need for simpler, clear, and continuous regulations in the financial sector. He opined that the industry had felt it challenging to keep pace with the changing regulations.
Banks are gaining market share at the expense of non-bank lenders such as housing finance companies, retail lenders, and those giving gold loans. There has been a steady decline in the market share of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) in the credit market as banks have stepped up lending. NBFCs' share declined to a five-year low of 19.8 per cent in the first half of FY23, down from 20.3 per cent in H1FY22, and an all-time high of 23.1 per cent in H1FY19.
A slowdown in hiring by India's top IT companies has resulted in a sharp increase in the industry's profit per employee in Q3FY23. The top four IT companies earned a net profit of 1.7 lakh per employee during October-December 2022, up 8.6 per cent from Rs 1.57 lakh in Q2FY23 and 16.3 per cent from a record low of Rs 1.47 lakh in Q1FY23. Earnings per employee in the third quarter were, however, still down 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
In order for life insurance customers to attain maximum benefits, it is crucial for the persistency ratio to be far higher than its current level, top executives of the industry said at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit on Thursday. The persistency ratio is a metric that measures the number of policyholders who continue paying renewal premium and is gauged at varying stages in the life of a policy. A higher persistency ratio is seen as an indicator of an insurance product that caters satisfactorily to the needs of a customer.
Financial institutions are 300 times more vulnerable to cyberattacks than any other industry.
India has a huge untapped population which doesn't have facilities for financial aid and insurance, and it is perhaps plausible to look at the option of having niche players catering to smaller sectors akin to non-banks and microfinance institutions in lending, said Rakesh Joshi, member (Finance & Investment), Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai). Speaking at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit, Joshi said, "Today, most of our insurance companies operate at a national level. There is arguably a case for having differentiated operations, which cater to niche sectors the same way we have non-banking financial companies (NBFC) and microfinance institutions in lending." "The capital requirement for niche players may not be as large as those having national ambitions. "Enabling these niche players, which require lower capital, will enhance the penetration in areas which hitherto had not seen traction from large players," he said.
Exuding confidence in sustaining the tempo of credit growth, public sector bankers said on Wednesday that consolidation in the public sector bank (PSB) space has given them a robust base to scale. The privatisation of PSBs can be done through divestment of government stake to a wider base of investors without haste. There is nothing to worry about at this point (high credit offtake) as underwriting standards and risk management are much better.
The price of bitcoin, the bestselling cryptocurrency, has shrunk nearly three times this year to mark the fate of such digital assets. Crashing prices, regulatory uncertainty and taxes have put Indian crypto exchanges in troubled waters. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's budget for FY23 announced a 30 per cent tax on any income from the transfer of virtual digital assets.
'People trust India and Indians a lot more than they trust China and the Chinese.'
So far the government has been silent on the charges being levelled, even after the stock price rout. Perhaps it is hoping for the share price to settle so that the matter goes away, predicts Aakar Patel.
'Hacking of an ID or an account will have the same impact on a user in a city and one in a small town.' 'Security is like a railroad, you create it to last for every customer.'
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
'The Indian economy and the Indian financial sector today remain resilient and much better placed.'
The rupee breached the 80-mark against the dollar on Tuesday. The steady depreciation in the value of the rupee against the US dollar is likely to prove expensive for corporate India. The listed companies' revenue expenses in foreign currency or imports exceed their export revenues or revenue earnings in forex. In their latest financial year, BSE500 companies, excluding banks and non-banking finance companies and insurance (BFSI), reported combined forex expenses of Rs 12.31 trillion against forex earnings of around Rs 10 trillion.
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