Revising inflation forecast upwards would be positive
Dealing with the fallout of the sub-normal monsoon will be the first major challenge for the new government, irrespective of its composition.
The new prime minister should learn from the mistakes of the current government and pay more attention to inflation.
Raghuram Rajan's signal of a neutral stance is at odds with concerns about inflation and markets' revised expectation of more increases in the repo rate
The role of global factors in accelerating India's growth to unprecedented levels continues to be worryingly underappreciated.
The RBI's idiosyncratic focus on wholesale price inflation at the expense of retail inflation is a serious policy error.
RBI's suggestion of new products to lower gold imports treats the symptom rather than the underlying disease
The emerging growth-inflation trade-off warrants a shift to policy rates for monetary management.
Unlike politicians, central banks do not get into chest-thumping mode, and their job is never over. It is best for RBI to adopt a handle-with-care exit strategy.
Earlier Rajeev Malik an analyst with Macquarie Group had downgraded India's economic growth forecast to 6.5 per cent for the fiscal ended March 2010, from 7 per cent on account of weak monsoon.
The strongest reasons for creating an independent debt management office (DMO) are also the ones for not doing it now, says Rajeev Malik.
The poor monsoon is only a hiccup for the unfolding India growth story and will not dampen high growth rates, says Rajeev Malik.
While the finance minister is in favour of sacrificing some growth to curb inflation, the problem lies in inflation being more a supply-side than a demand-led problem.
Investment bank JPMorgan has cut the GDP growth forecast for India for 2008-09 to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent previously, citing expected moderation in industrial and service sector growth. The International Monetary Fund and Crisil have projected 8.2 per cent and 8.5 per cent GDP growth respectively. 7% is the lowest growth forecast for 2008-09 so far. JPMorgan said cut in growth expectations for India was due to US slump. It expects RBI to cut repo rate by 25 basis points.
As far as US growth is concerned, he says that the first half of next year is expected to be better than the second half of this year.\n\n
'As a course mate who has followed closely this star on the Bombay Sappers firmament, my heart swells with pride to see his extraordinary brilliance and focus; his commitment and his dedication; his hard work; and his technical as well as tactical knowledge,' says Colonel K Thammayya Udupa (retd) of his batchmate General Manoj Pande who will take over as chief of the army staff on May 1.
There is little scope for significant monetary easing even in the next fiscal year.
Duvvuri Subbarao recounts how his tensions with P Chidambaram and Pranab Mukherjee, then finance ministers, over monetary policy spilled over into other issues in the central bank in this excerpt from Who Moved My Interest Rate?, his memoir of his term as Reserve Bank of India governor.
New Reserve Bank of India chief makes his first monetary policy statement on Friday with expectations he may scale back some of the emergency measures that have helped the rupee bounce from a record low.
He has had a productive first year at the RBI -- one which saw, also, India's economic imbalances improve and the unexpectedly strong general election outcome.
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