Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
Strong performance in the beauty and personal care (BPC) segment, margin gains, and expectations of a breakeven in the fashion business lifted sentiment for FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa). The consumer technology platform's stock rose 7.5 per cent on Friday, extending gains over the past week to more than 17 per cent. Most brokerages have upgraded the stock following its third-quarter (October-December/Q3) performance and higher profit expectations ahead.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
In a world fractured by uncertainty, India stands out for its policy consistency, paired with sustained ambition, points out Pritam Banerjee.
With India overtaking China in terms of weightage in the Morgan Stanley emerging markets IMI, Indian equities could see inflows of about $4.5 billion (Rs 37,000 crore), according to estimates. This week, Morgan Stanley announced that India has overtaken China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (MSCI EM IMI). The weight of India in MSCI EM IMI stood at 22.27 per cent compared to 21.58 per cent of China.
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
Shares of apparel retail major Trent fell over 8.6 per cent to ~4,048 apiece at the close of trade on Tuesday. Trading near its 52-week low, the stock has shed about 43 per cent over the past year. Sentiment around the Tata group company weakened after it reported lower than expected revenue for the third quarter (October-December/Q3) of 2025-26 (FY26). Brokerages expect the stock to remain under pressure in the near term.
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd may spend about $12-15 billion over the next few years on AI infrastructure that could include a giant 1GW data centre, Morgan Stanley said in a report. Ambani had at the company's annual shareholder meeting in August announced a major push into AI through a new subsidiary and strategic partnerships.
Analysts have sharply reduced cigarette maker ITC's earning estimates for the next two years, fearing a significant dent in the company's profitability and margins. This is owing to a steep hike in excise duty on tobacco by the government.
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company has set a price band of Rs 2,061- Rs 2,165 per share for its Rs 10,600-crore initial public offering (IPO) that will open on Friday. At the upper end of the band, the country's largest asset manager will command a valuation of Rs 1.07 trillion.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) on Thursday said it has sold 3.53 per cent stake in RBL Bank for Rs 678 crore, representing a 62.5 per cent gain on the investment. On July 26, 2023, the Mumbai-based diversified firm had announced the acquisition of a 3.53 per cent stake in RBL Bank as a treasury investment at a cost of Rs 417 crore.
A new era of Indian equity market outperformance compared to China "appears to be dawning", according to Morgan Stanley. The firm has upgraded India to overweight in its Asia Pacific-excluding Japan (APxJ) list, making it their most preferred market not only in the region but also in the global emerging market (GEM) pack. India now holds the top position in this category, with an overweight of 75 basis points, a significant increase from nil previously.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
'What the government is doing would be a drop in the ocean. It has to be matched by investments by industry.'
Morgan Stanley has increased the target prices of certain information technology (IT) stocks by as much as 29 per cent, anticipating an improvement in earnings in the near future. Within the IT and engineering research and development (ER&D) services sector, it is now more optimistic about growth and margin estimates for 2024-25 (FY25).
Morgan Stanley on Thursday became the latest brokerage to question the valuations of Indian equities and downgraded them from 'overweight' (OW) to 'equalweight' (EW) and recommended taking some money off the table. "We move tactically EW on India equities after strong relative gains - we expect a structural multi-year earnings recovery, but at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E) we look for some consolidation ahead of US Fed tapering, an RBI hike in February and higher energy costs," Morgan Stanley equity strategists, led by Daniel Blake and Jonathan Garner, said in a note on Asia Pacific markets. The brokerage has upgraded Indonesia to OW, while maintaining an EW stance on China and UW on Taiwan.
'Trade deal will act as a strong trigger for market sentiment, not just for domestic investors but also for FIIs.'
The initial public offering of LG Electronics India Ltd received 54.02 times subscription on the final day of bidding on Thursday, driven by overwhelming participation from institutional buyers.
With several $500 million-plus deals in the pipeline -- including ICICI Prudential AMC, Lenskart, PhonePe, Groww, PhysicsWallah, Meesho, Pine Labs, and Zepto -- investment bankers look poised for another year of hefty bonuses in 2025.
...compared with 153,000 in all of 2024.
Mint Road's proposals on banks' M&A funding are cautious even as entrants root for more elbow room, and weigh business models.
The initial public offer of app-based beauty and home services platform Urban Company Ltd received overwhelming investor participation, with the issue getting a huge 103.63 times subscription on the last day of bidding on Friday. The Rs 1,900-crore IPO received bids for 11,06,46,08,960 shares against 10,67,73,244 shares on offer, according to NSE data.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
The Wall Street major Morgan Stanley has upgraded India to "standout overweight" citing that the relative economic and earnings growth is improving and the macro-stability setup looks sufficient to withstand the higher real rate environment. "India remains standout overweight. "We increase our overweight stance on Indian equities and as our most-preferred emerging market," the brokerage said in a note on Friday.
Several companies across sectors like finance, healthcare, wellness, retail technology, and asset management are bracing up to hit the D-street. With an unprecedented 1.7 lakh crore raised in 2025, the momentum is likely to sustain in 2026.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
Digital payments provider PhonePe has filed draft papers with markets regulator Sebi for its upcoming initial public offering (IPO) using the confidential pre-filing route. On Wednesday, the company's spokesperson said, "PhonePe Ltd has filed the Pre-filed Draft Red Herring Prospectus with Sebi and the stock exchanges, under...the Sebi ICDR Regulations in relation to the proposed initial public offering of its equity shares on the main board of the stock exchanges".
Morgan Stanley has upgraded China's equities amidst optimism about the country relaxing restrictions to slow down the spread of Covid-19. "Multiple positive developments alongside a clear path set towards reopening warrant an upgrade and index target increases for China," the brokerage said in a note. MSCI China's return on equity (ROE) is likely to rise from 9.4 per cent to 11.1 per cent by the end-2023.
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
India hosts the event from a position of unprecedented strength with a string of titles under its belt.
The US' move to raise the tariff on most Indian goods to 50 per cent could drag India's GDP growth for FY26 by 35 to 60 basis points, according to various economists. One basis point (bp) is equal to 0.01 per cent.
India is likely to be the fastest-growing Asian economy in 2022-23, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. They expect India's gross domestic product growth to average 7 per cent during this period - the strongest among the largest economies - and contributing 28 per cent and 22 per cent to Asian and global growth, respectively. The Indian economy, they said, is set for its best run in over a decade as pent-up demand is unleashed.
Reliance holds 67.03% of Jio Platforms Limited and the public listing would provide an exit to many investors.
'We don't make films for profit and that's exactly why profit follows.'
Despite headwinds, it remains "structurally bullish" on India and expects the Sensex to scale up to the 70,000-mark by December 2022; 80,000 level in a bull-case scenario and hover around the 50,000-mark as a bear-case, the brokerage house said in a report.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
The best-case scenario -- to which Morgan Stanley attaches 30 per cent probability -- pegs the S&P BSE Sensex at 41,500 levels in the next 12 months.
Report maintains its underweight call on India.
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