The wholesale price-based inflation declined to over two-year low of 3.85 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power, even though food articles remained expensive. This is the ninth straight month of decline in the rate of wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation. The WPI inflation was 4.73 per cent in January and 13.43 per cent in February, last year.
In the June quarter of FY24, 51 per cent of consumers who took small-ticket personal loans already had more than four credit products at the time of accessing yet another new loan, compared with just 17 per cent in the June quarter of FY20, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday increased the benchmark lending rate by 40 basis points (bps) to 4.40 per cent in a bid to contain inflation, which has remained stubbornly above the target zone of 6 per cent for the last three months. The decision follows an unscheduled meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with all six members unanimously voting for a rate hike while maintaining the accommodative stance. While the inflation has remained above the targetted 6 per cent since January, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the inflation print in April is also likely to be high.
The paper seems to be suggesting strongly that the tight target range be maintained even as the central bank is all set to miss the target range for three consecutive quarters because of the Covid crisis.
IT major Accenture's second straight cut in its revenue growth forecast for FY23 suggests there is more pain ahead for the Indian IT sector, say analysts. Accenture has lowered the top end of its FY23 growth guidance in constant currency (CC) to 9 per cent from 10 per cent earlier. The firm, which follows a September-August fiscal cycle, expects a 2-6 per cent CC growth in Q4 of FY23 (June-August 2023) versus the 6-10 per cent prior guidance.
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
The Covid winter seems to be finally ending for debt-oriented mutual fund (MF) schemes as interest rates peak, especially for those that invest in shorter-maturity papers. In the past two months, shorter-horizon debt schemes - ultra-short, low-duration, and money-market - have together raked in net inflows of Rs 48,000 crore, the highest for two months since April-May 2021. These schemes invest in shorter-maturity papers ranging from three months to a year.
Resisting the Supreme Court's attempt to revisit the 2016 demonetisation exercise, the government said on Friday the court cannot decide a matter when no tangible relief can be granted by way of "putting the clock back" and "unscrambling a scrambled egg".
'We have delivered a bitter medicine. It will take time to work.'
Investors have become poorer by over Rs 10.36 lakh crore in the last four trading sessions as the domestic equity benchmarks extended their losses amid weak global trends. The Sensex and Nifty closed in the red for the fourth straight session on Friday amid continued selling by foreign institutional investors. The BSE Sensex ended 427.44 points or 0.72 per cent lower at 59,037.18.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to a 19-month low of 8.39 per cent in October, on easing prices of fuel and manufactured items. This is the first time in 19 months that WPI inflation print has come in single digit. Last was in March 2021 at 7.89 per cent. Since April 2021, WPI inflation remained in double digits for 18 months with September print at 10.79 per cent.
Retail inflation cut short its three-month declining trend and inched up to 7 per cent in August mainly due to higher food prices, according to official data released on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation was 6.71 per cent in July and 5.3 per cent in August 2021. The CPI inflation has remained above the RBI's comfort level of 6 per cent for the eighth month in a row.
Domestic equity investors' wealth eroded by more than Rs 4.43 lakh crore on Monday as fears of a financial contagion triggered by one of the biggest bank failures in the US roiled market sentiments. After a strong opening, Indian stocks went into a tailspin with the benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex tumbling nearly 900 points to close at 58,237.85 points -- sliding for the third straight trading session. The NSE Nifty too declined 258.60 points to end at 17,154.30 points.
The increase reflects a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6 per cent in October-December 2022-23. In absolute terms, the total liabilities, including liabilities under the 'Public Account' of the government, jumped to Rs 1,50,95,970.8 crore at the end of December 2022.
Maintaining 4 per cent inflation is appropriate for India as targeting a lower rate could impart deflationary bias to the monetary policy, said a Reserve Bank paper. Under the current dispensation, the RBI has been mandated by the government to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The paper, authored by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra and another official Harendra Kumar Behera, has found a steady decline in trend inflation to 4.1-4.3 per cent since 2014.
With retail inflation witnessing significant uptick in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain status quo in its August monetary policy review, according to a report. According to the SBI's research report- Ecowrap, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months due to several global and domestic factors. "We expect a status-quo in August. We believe RBI would still try to find a marriage of convenience of regulatory and developmental measures and monetary policy in August policy," the research report said on Wednesday.
Within three trading sessions in May, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped in Rs 9,461 crore into Indian equities. This follows net inflows worth Rs 7,936 crore in March, and Rs 11,631 crore in April. The trend, analysts said, could continue going ahead as the US Federal Reserve may soon halt its interest rate hike cycle, which will strengthen foreign fund inflows into emerging markets, including India.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance even as the economy is showing signs of recovery after the second Covid wave.
From the Sensex pack, Reliance Industries fell the most by 2 per cent. Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, ITC, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the other major laggards.
Rating agency Icra on Wednesday said while there is some evidence of the economic recovery becoming broad-based in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, it is yet to attain the durability being sought by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as a precursor to policy transmission. The agency expects the real GDP to expand 6-6.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of FY2022 (+8.4 per cent in Q2 FY2022). It also sees the RBI maintaining the status quo in the upcoming monetary policy review to be held in February.
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
After three consecutive years of infusing huge funds, foreign portfolio investors retreated from the Indian equity markets in a big way in 2022 with the highest-ever yearly net outflow of nearly Rs 1.21 lakh crore. The huge outflow, which surpasses by a big margin the previous record of Rs 53,000 crore net withdrawal in 2008, came amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally but 2023 is expected to be better on positivity about overall macroeconomic trends in India, experts said. Apart from global monetary tightening, volatile crude, rising commodity prices along with Russia and Ukraine conflict led to an exodus of foreign money in 2022.
'Recent underperformance notwithstanding, equities should constitute a major part of investors' financial portfolio.'
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The RBI on Friday retained inflation forecast for FY23 at 6.7 per cent amid uncertain price trajectory on "geopolitical shocks" and on hope that inflationary pressures would ease with pick-up in kharif sowing and supply chain improvements. In its previous monetary policy review in June, it had projected retail inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7 per cent, higher from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to raise the benchmark repo rate by a steep 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent with immediate effect to tame inflation while supporting growth.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance against the backdrop of concerns over the emergence of the new coronavirus variant Omicron.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
India's manufacturing sector activity hit the highest level in eight months in July, driven by a significant rise in business orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 53.9 in June to 56.4 in July, reflecting the strongest improvement in the health of the sector in eight months. The July PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 13th straight month.
The RBI's rate-setting panel MPC on Monday began its three-day deliberation amid expectations of another round of hike in benchmark interest rates to contain inflation that continues to remain above the central bank's upper tolerance level. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee after deliberations on Wednesday. Das has already indicated that there may another hike in the repo rate, though he refrained from quantifying it.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
A healthy growth in India's services segments has helped the country's total exports and imports of goods and services to cross the $800 billion mark during the first half of 2023, despite a slowdown in global demand, think tank GTRI said in a report on Monday. According to the analysis of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), exports of goods and services rose by 1.5 per cent to $385.4 billion during January-June this year, as against $379.5 billion in January-June 2022. Imports, however, dipped by 5.9 per cent to $415.5 billion during the six months of this year, as against $441.7 billion in January-June 2022.
Analysts at Barclays pitched for a 0.25 per cent cut to generate demand advising the central bank to throw caution to the wind.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the third consecutive month in August to 12.41 per cent, on softening in prices of manufactured items, even as food items saw an uptick. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was 13.93 per cent in July and 11.64 per cent in August last year. August is the 17th consecutive month of double-digit wholesale price inflation (WPI).
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
The RBI's mistake may have been in interpreting its mandate to maintain retail inflation at 4%, with 2% leeway in either direction, as being a mandate that permitted it to do nothing even when inflation was at or near the upper bound of 6%, observes T N Ninan.
The Indian equity market is likely to remain under pressure and rangebound over the next few months. This comes as global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve look at a possibility of hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, too, remains data dependent in its endeavour to keep inflation in check and pursue an aggressive monetary policy stance.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may go for a hike of up to 0.25 per cent in the reverse repo rate at which the RBI absorbs excess liquidity and leave the repo rate at which it lends, to narrow the policy rate corridor, a British brokerage said on Thursday. "Growth concerns amid spread of the Omicron variant and relatively benign inflation out-turns provide the RBI with enough room to maintain its growth-supportive monetary policies," analysts at Barclays said, ahead of the resolution announcement next week. The RBI will hike the reverse repo rate by 0.20-0.25 per cent, given its liquidity management actions, it said.
Retail inflation declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to softening prices of food items, according to official data released on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021.
India's services sector lost momentum in July as demand was curtailed by competitive pressures, elevated inflation and unfavourable weather, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 59.2 in June to 55.5 in July, pointing to the slowest rate of growth in four months. For the 12th straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Haven't they heard about the 'Tale of Two Brothers'? asks Suveen Sinha.
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