'The government's decision to keep interest rates unchanged on small savings schemes will certainly constrain banks' ability to cut deposit rates further.'
Companies are primarily using funds raised through fresh equity issuance to repay existing debt, followed by allocation for capital expenditure, according to a study by Bank of Baroda of over 200 filings with the market regulator between April and October 2025. The report stated that of these filings with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - covering both funds already raised in FY26 and future intent - 189 companies provided clear data on the purpose of the fund-raising.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
The ministries of Road Transport & Highways and Railways have exceeded the national average capital expenditure (capex) by spending 63 per cent and 57 per cent of Budget estimates (BE), respectively, in the first half of 2025-26 (FY26). The total capital expenditure for April-September of FY26 stood at 52 per cent of the BE, according to the latest data by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
The US' move to raise the tariff on most Indian goods to 50 per cent could drag India's GDP growth for FY26 by 35 to 60 basis points, according to various economists. One basis point (bp) is equal to 0.01 per cent.
'The US reciprocal tariff has added another element of uncertainty and the central bank may prefer to wait and get further clarity.'
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation rate is likely to have cooled further in June, thus remaining below the 4 per cent target of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for a fifth consecutive month, giving the central bank wiggle room to focus on growth. Economists reckon that the decline is on account of easing prices in various categories of goods, especially food items, and a favourable base effect.
While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall GDP effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2%, but overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board, points out Madan Sabnavis.
Companies may foot less of the tax bill for some time yet. The corporate share of net direct tax collections has been lower in 2024-25 than in previous years. The corporate segment accounted for 45.6 per cent of total net direct tax collections as of March 16, compared to 48.1 per cent on the same date in 2023-24 (FY24).
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
The RBI is likely to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points this week after keeping it on hold for two years, complementing the Union Budget initiatives to push consumption-led demand, though the sliding rupee continues to be a concern. As the retail inflation has remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone (less than 6 per cent) for most of the year, the central bank can take rate action to boost growth hit by sluggish consumption, opined experts.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
Job creation, improving farm productivity, and mobilising public funds for infrastructure development were some of the issues that figured during the interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and economists ahead of the 2025-26 Union Budget. The prime minister on Tuesday met eminent economists and sectoral experts at NITI Aayog to hear their views and suggestions for the upcoming Budget. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Budget for 2025-26 in the Lok Sabha on February 1, 2025.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
The government may save over Rs 70,000 crore (Rs 700 billion) on capital and revenue expenditure allocated towards new schemes in the FY25 Budget that are yet to be implemented.
States are on track of fiscal consolidation with their total borrowings reaching Rs 5 trillion till October, which is 60 per cent of the projected borrowings of Rs 8.38 trillion till December 2024, according to data from official sources. Government officials said the lower-than-projected borrowings by states were a sign of prudent fiscal management by them. States announce their borrowing plans every quarter.
Following the lacklustre growth numbers in the second quarter (Q2FY25), economists believe the upcoming Union Budget for 2025-26 should focus on reforms that will stimulate consumption, manufacturing and spur employment. India's growth unexpectedly slowed to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter, due to low capital formation, weak consumption, besides adverse weather impact.
Amid low growth elsewhere, gross value added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities recovered during the second quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY25) to 3.5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) due to strong monsoon. Experts feel that the rains have laid the foundation of an even better GVA performance in subsequent quarters. GVA growth in the first quarter of FY25 was 2.0 per cent.
Gross Value Added (GVA) growth in agriculture and allied activities in the first quarter of the 2024-25 financial year (Q1FY25) dipped to 2.7 per cent at constant prices from 4.2 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a drop in output of some crops following heatwave in the main growing months. Low post-monsoon rains, which dried most of the reservoirs in several states across the country, also impacted the production of many crops. At current prices, the growth was estimated at 8.5 per cent as against 4.1 per cent in Q1FY24 due to a spike in food inflation during the April to June months of FY25.
The Indian rupee is likely to depreciate further against the US dollar through the end of 2024. This is due to the continued strengthening of the greenback, combined with the weakening of the Chinese yuan, which is expected to keep pressure on the Indian currency.
The government does not seem keen on issuing fresh gold bonds given the overall cost and rising gold prices.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
The outward foreign direct investment (FDI) by Indian companies stabilised in 2023-24 (FY24) after witnessing a fall in 2022-23 (FY23). The actual outward FDI inched up slightly to $13.75 billion in FY24 from $13.49 billion in the previous financial year (FY23), according to finance ministry data. This stability came after a sharp fall in outward flows in FY23 from $18.52 billion in 2021-22 (FY22).
Even as the high inflation figure for October has ruled out any possibility of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy committee (MPC) in December, a rate cut in February also looks uncertain due to global uncertainties. Economists told Business Standard that unless domestic growth slows markedly, the outlook on rate cut remains unclear. India's headline inflation touched a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October, breaching the MPC's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent.
The liquidity will move into deficit after advance tax payments and GST outflows. It will rebound in October because of government spending.
>According to the latest RBI data, PPF receipts have already experienced a decline between April 2023 and February 2024. Other schemes like the Sukanya Samriddhi Account and National Savings Certificate are also witnessing reduced inflows.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
To boost domestic manufacturing under the Make in India initiative and reduce dependency on imports, the government is expected to announce in the Budget an increase in the minimum local content requirement for public procurement, with certain sectors being granted exceptions. Currently, firms producing goods, services, or works with at least 50 per cent local content are classified as Class-I local suppliers and are preferred the most in government procurement.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
With concern on food inflation ebbing with the monsoon progressing well, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is warming up to the idea of a change in stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation", according to economists. In his speech on Thursday during the annual event of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks' Association, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised."
'India's top companies currently lack the organisational wherewithal to hire and train 2 million interns annually, given their current scale of operations and existing employee base.'
With India's inclusion in global bond indices starting next financial year, the central government believes there will be greater scope for shifting to borrowings via long-term government securities (G-sec) from short-term instruments. This change may be factored into the FY25 interim Budget. "While this has been our focus, the inclusion of India in global bond indices gives us the opportunity to accelerate the shift towards longer tenure G-secs," an official said, requesting anonymity.
Whether it's Carrefour, Ford, or other foreign majors, they are ready to adjust their strategies and design their plans in a way that would address the Indian consumption story.
'The Budget needs to focus more on social welfare schemes.'
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
...to fund the revenue gap. Of the gross market borrowing of Rs 14.13 trillion estimated for FY25, Rs 7.5 trillion, or 53 per cent, is planned to be borrowed in the first half.
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