Power generation decelerated 4.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to 155 billion units (BU) in August 2024. This was the first downtrend in many years, albeit on a high base - generation had increased 19 per cent Y-o-Y to 163 billion units (BU) in August 2023. The dip was partly due to excess rainfall, which pared cooling demand and also reduced need for irrigation.
Power utilities may report moderate growth in earnings for Q3FY25. Generation is up 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q3 on lower cooling demand and high base, to 429 billion units (BU). Peak demand was steady at 224 Gw in Q3FY25, a 10 per cent decline from the record highs of 250 Gw in May 2024.
As the political uncertainty settles down, investors are reviewing their assumptions about the power sector. Demand here is likely to continue to grow strongly in the long-term at around 5-6 per cent CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) during the next 6-7 years. Given policy continuity, several trends will persist.
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