Concerns have emerged about the impact of AI adoption on young workers, particularly those seeking their first job in high-skilled occupations.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.4 per cent, from 6.9 per cent, on increased consumer spending and improved sentiment boosted by GST reforms.
India's equity markets may have expanded rapidly, but initial public offerings (IPOs) are increasingly becoming exit vehicles for early investors rather than as engines for raising long-term capital, a shift that undermines the spirit of public markets, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran warned on Monday at a CII event.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
The Omicron variant of Covid-19 adds new uncertainties to the global economic outlook but much will depend on its speed of transmission, hospitalisation and death rates, and also the effectiveness of vaccines, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its commentary titled 'Much to Learn About Omicronast', Moody's Analytics said although the variant appears to spread "remarkably quickly", it will be at least two more weeks before more will be known about this new variant. "The Omicron variant of COVID-19 adds new measures of uncertainty to the outlook for the global economy, although it is too soon to adequately quantify that risk.
Outlook for external sector is the most favourable.
The information technology (IT) services industry may be headed for another year of sluggish growth. Based on the results of the top five IT services companies for the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26), analysts say the possibility of hitting high single-digit revenue growth in FY26 looks unlikely.
'Deposit and lending rates have started to fall considerably. It is likely to spur investment and consumption of durables.'
Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut India's GDP growth estimate by 10 basis points to 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal, but retained the projections for the next financial year, on concerns over a 'severe' escalation in global trade war. "It is hard to predict US trade policy with any confidence. Massive policy uncertainty is hurting business investment prospects, equity price falls are reducing household wealth, and US exporters will be hit by retaliation," Fitch said in its special update to quarterly Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
The Indian economy could remain less affected by global trade wars than other countries because the two engines of domestic growth - consumption and investment - are likely to face a limited impact from such headwinds, according to an article on the 'State of the Economy' in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bulletin, released on Tuesday.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent projected in March, saying elevated consumer confidence will drive spending, besides increased investments. In June update to its global economic outlook report, Fitch said it expects inflation to decline to 4.5 per cent by end of this year and RBI to cut policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent.
The advanced economies have been experiencing their longest period of slow growth in many decades.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 7 per cent for the next fiscal year starting April 1 on the back of strong domestic demand and sustained level of business and consumer confidence. With a stronger-than-expected 8.4 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) during the third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal year, Fitch saw the Indian economy expanding 7.8 per cent in 2023-24 financial year (April 2023 to March 2024), marginally higher than the government's estimate of 7.6 per cent.
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Disappointing quarterly earnings numbers and revenue forecast from IT services company Wipro also weighed on investor sentiments. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell 247.78 points or 0.38 per cent to settle at 65,629.24 points. During the day, it plunged 533.52 points or 0.80 per cent to 65,343.50 points.
IT company Wipro on Wednesday reported almost flat growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 2,667.3 crore for the September 2023 quarter and projected a 3.5 per cent fall in revenue in the current quarter on a weak global economic outlook. The company had posted a profit after tax of Rs 2,649.1 crore a year ago. Its lower IT services growth estimate for the December 2023 quarter by 3.5-1.5 per cent is in the range of $2,617-2,672 million in constant currency terms or about Rs 21,642.59 -- Rs 22,097.44 crore.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
Most economists expect the global economy to weaken in the coming year amid political and financial volatility, but a large majority of over 90 per cent are confident of moderate or strong growth in South Asia, notably India, a survey showed on Friday. At the same time, the outlook for China has dimmed following signs of deflationary pressures and fragility in the country's real estate market, the World Economic Forum's latest 'Chief Economists Outlook' report said. As the world grapples with political and financial volatility, almost six in 10 believe the global economic outlook will undermine progress towards meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with 74 per cent saying geopolitical tensions will have the same effect.
Worried by a spike in Chinese imports, the Indian Steel Association (ISA) plans to take up the matter with the government and seek measures to fix "trade distortions". Alok Sahay, secretary general of the group that represents the country's steel producers, said systemic changes were needed. "In order to take any trade measure, it takes a minimum of 15 months' time, due to prevalence of lesser duty rule in India, making India an easy target. "We are going to write to the government on this," he said.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
India and the US on Friday expressed concern over high inflation which is being driven by external factors and has become a challenge for both the nations. Speaking at the US-India Businesses and Investment Opportunities, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in India the inflation challenges are prompted more by external factors. "So while the number today is in a manageable range, the challenges are largely due to the import of crude.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP forecast to minus 9.4 per cent in the current fiscal year from a previously projected contraction of 10.5 per cent after the economy staged a sharper rebound in the second quarter. In its Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said the coronavirus-induced recession inflicted severe economic scarring and the country needs to repair balance sheets and increase caution about long-term planning. "We now expect GDP to contract 9.4 per cent in the fiscal year to end March 2021 (plus 1.1 percentage point) followed by plus 11 per cent growth (unchanged) and plus 6.3 per cent growth in the following years," the rating agency said.
Many CEOs said they plan to give special leave to women employees so as to encourage their participation in the workforce.
Prospective buyers must make a well-considered decision regarding whether this is the right time to buy a house, particularly with home loan rates at near-peak levels, and the risk of job losses looming in many sectors.
'With a solid investment programme and sustainable development strategy, India can exceed 7 per cent growth per year, or a doubling of high-quality national income within a decade.'
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday retained India's economic growth forecast at 7 per cent for the current fiscal, but cut projections for the next two financial years saying the country is not impervious to global developments. In its December edition of the Global Economic Outlook, Fitch projected India's GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal, at a slower rate of 6.2 per cent in 2023-24 and at 6.9 per cent in 2024-25. In September, Fitch projected 7 per cent growth for the current fiscal, followed by 6.7 per cent in 2023-24 and 7.1 per cent growth in 2024-25.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the new tax regime will benefit the middle class as it will leave more money in their hands. Talking to reporters after the customary post-Budget address to the central board of the RBI, she said it is not necessary to induce individuals to invest through government schemes but give them an opportunity to make a personal decision regarding investments. "...the way we allowed for standard deduction and also the rates which have been fixed, tax rates which have been fixed for different slabs, it has actually left more money in the hands of the people, the taxpayer, the household," she said.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday slashed India's GDP growth projection for FY23 to 7 per cent, saying the economy is expected to slow against the backdrop of global economy, elevated inflation and high interest rate. In June, it had forecast 7.8 per cent growth for India. "We expect the economy to slow given the global economic backdrop, elevated inflation and tighter monetary policy. "We now expect the economy to grow 7 per cent in the financial year to end-March 2023 (FY23) from 7.8 per cent previously, with FY24 also slowing to 6.7 per cent from 7.4 per cent before," Fitch said in its September edition of the Global Economic Outlook.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday hiked key benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 per cent, citing sticky core inflation. This is the sixth time interest rate has been hiked by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since May last year, taking the total quantum of hike to 250 basis points. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) by a majority decided to raise the policy repo rate by 25 basis points and keep a 'strong vigil' on inflation outlook.
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday slashed India's growth forecast for the next fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 10.3 per cent, citing sharply high energy prices on account of the Russia-Ukraine war. With the Omicron wave subsiding quickly, containment measures have been scaled back, setting the stage for a pick-up in GDP growth momentum in the June quarter this year, the agency said. It has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.6 percentage points to 8.7 per cent.
Maintaining a rapid pace of the vaccination drive and quickly bridging healthcare infrastructure gaps across both urban and rural areas would emerge as the most sustainable stimulus for durable recovery of the Indian economy, says a report by the department of economic affairs.
Let's take a look at how India and world's major economies will perform in the next four years.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth estimate to 12.8 per cent for the fiscal year beginning April 1 from its previous estimate of 11 per cent, saying its recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected. In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said revision is on the back of "a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance and better virus containment." "India's second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent," it said. "Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory."
Returns from the yellow metal may be subdued, as focus returns to equities.
The Indian economy is on the path of a durable recovery on the back of conducive monetary and credit conditions, the global headwinds notwithstanding, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article on the state of the economy. Domestically, there have been several positives on the COVID-19 front, in terms of reduced infections and faster vaccinations, the article published in the RBI Bulletin November 2021 added. The Indian economy, the article said, is clearly differentiating itself from the global situation, which is marred by supply disruptions, stubborn inflation and surges of infections in various parts of the world.
India's economic growth has slowed to a three-year low of 5.3 per cent in the April-June quarter of the current fiscal.
In its report, 'Global Economic Outlook: December 2011', the agency said the Indian economy is likely to regain the 8 per cent economic growth trajectory only in 2013-14.
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