American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP forecast to minus 9.4 per cent in the current fiscal year from a previously projected contraction of 10.5 per cent after the economy staged a sharper rebound in the second quarter. In its Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said the coronavirus-induced recession inflicted severe economic scarring and the country needs to repair balance sheets and increase caution about long-term planning. "We now expect GDP to contract 9.4 per cent in the fiscal year to end March 2021 (plus 1.1 percentage point) followed by plus 11 per cent growth (unchanged) and plus 6.3 per cent growth in the following years," the rating agency said.
'Healthcare is not an industry.' 'The government is only encouraging insurance as they are not able to provide healthcare to people.' 'Opening new medical colleges is not what is needed.' 'You have to invest in public sector hospitals.' 'You cannot hand over healthcare to the private industry.'
Fiscal deficit for 2020-21 was at 9.3 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP), lower than 9.5 per cent estimated by the finance ministry in the revised Budget estimates, according to the CGA data. Unveiling the revenue-expenditure data of the Union government for 2020-21, the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Monday said that the revenue deficit at the end of the fiscal was 7.42 per cent.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday said India's high fiscal deficit would pose a challenge in lowering the debt to GDP ratio, which is expected to rise above 90 per cent in the next five years. It said India entered the pandemic with little fiscal headroom from a rating perspective. Its general government debt/GDP ratio stood at 72 per cent in 2019, against a median of 42 per cent for 'BBB' rated peers.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
With decline in number of fresh COVID-19 cases and easing of restrictions, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at 8.5 per cent in FY2021-22, according to credit rating agency Icra Ratings. It expects the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) to grow at 7.3 per cent in FY2022. "The impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and the ensuing state-wise restrictions was seen across a variety of high frequency indicators in April-May 2021.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
All eyes will be on whether Sitharaman will deliver a populist budget leaving more money in hands of the common man or push the reform agenda by staying on the fiscal glide path to lower the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's goal of making India a high-income economy by 2047 is unlikely to be achieved, but the country should become an upper middle-income nation by then, Financial Times chief economics commentator Martin Wolf said on Friday. Wolf further said that India would also become a superpower by 2047. "India wishes to become a high-income country by 2047.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
India's GDP is estimated to grow at 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2022-23 with rising prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict posing as the biggest challenge to the global economic recovery, Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey released on Sunday said. According to the survey, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to start a rate hike cycle in the second half of 2022, while a repo rate hike of 50-75 bps is expected by the end of the current fiscal. The RBI is expected to continue supporting the ongoing economic recovery by keeping the repo rate unchanged in its April policy review, the survey said.
Hammad Albalawi, head of Saudi Arabia's 2034 World Cup bid unit, said his country welcomes all visitors, including LGBTQ people and their bid to host the 48-team showpiece event has nothing to do with 'sportswashing' their human rights record.
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
India's economy contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The pandemic, it said, will leave new economic scars and deepen pre-pandemic constraints.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
IT and interest rate-sensitive bank, realty, and auto stocks ended with sharp gains.
'Given that the economy is going through a slowdown, further downward revisions of the 2019-2020 growth estimates cannot be ruled out,' notes A K Bhattacharya.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
Indian companies are generating more cash than ever. The net cash flow from listed firms' operations hit a new high of Rs 11.1 trillion in financial year 2023-24 (FY24), crossing the Rs 10-trillion mark for the first time, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data going back to 1990-91. The FY24 figure represents a 19.3 per cent jump over the previous year, even as quite a few companies are yet to release their numbers.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow more than 9.5 per cent in fiscal 2021-22, an SBI research report-Ecowrap said. The economy grew at 8.4 per cent in the second quarter of the current fiscal, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The growth in the April-June quarter of this fiscal stood at 20.1 per cent. In October's monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India had retained its projection for real GDP growth at 9.5 per cent in 2021-22, consisting of 7.9 per cent in Q2; 6.8 per cent in Q3; and 6.1 per cent in Q4 of 2021-22.
'We have essentially tried to set out an agenda for the next five years and it, in essence, represents the political commitment to that agenda.'
Growth rate in per capita income is projected to fall to the lowest in 21 years this financial year - except for the financial years 2019-20 (FY20) and 2020-21 (FY21) - according to the first advance estimates. During the last 21 years, the two periods - FY20 and FY21 - saw growth rates in per capita income lower than 7.9 per cent, seen during FY24. This was despite the real gross domestic product (GDP) being projected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the current financial year by the first advance estimates.
>Bihar (18 days) has the most number of heatwave days in 2023, followed by Andhra Pradesh (15 days), Odisha (15 days), Jharkhand (13 days), West Bengal (8 days) and Tamil Nadu (6 days).
An average Indian couple spends around 2x on weddings versus education (pre-primary to graduation).
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
Research and development (R&D) spending by BSE 100 companies has grown steadily, rising from 0.89 per cent of revenue in FY20 to 1.32 per cent in FY24, averaging around 1 per cent over the period in-between, according to data compiled from Bloomberg and company annual reports. Also, these companies more than doubled their R&D spending in absolute terms over these five years: From Rs 25,041 crore to Rs 63,072 crore. While this reflects a prioritisation of innovation, corporate R&D investment remains relatively conservative.
India's economy grew by 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, restricting the full-year contraction to 7.3 per cent, official data showed on Monday. The fourth quarter growth was better than the 0.5 per cent expansion in the previous October-December quarter of 2020-21. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 3 per cent in the corresponding January-March period of 2019-20, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
The Budget should use the extra RBI surplus to better effect, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
SBI economists on Tuesday sharply slashed their FY22 GDP growth estimates to 7.9 per cent - the lowest among all analysts - from the earlier projection of 10.4 per cent growth. The economists at the state-run lender seemed to attribute the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections as a key factor for the revision in the growth estimate, and pitched for faster vaccination. "... our analysis shows a disproportionately larger impact on the economy this time and given that rural is not as resilient as urban, the pick-up in pent-up demand is unlikely to make a large difference in FY22 GDP estimates, and hence it could only be a modest pick-up," they said.
Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Monday revised downwards its India GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 10.2 per cent from 11.8 per cent previously, citing the country's escalating health burden, faltering vaccination rate and lack of a convincing government strategy to contain the pandemic. Oxford Economics also said that notwithstanding the likelihood of further mobility restrictions, it expects India's targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and resilient consumer and business behaviour to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.
The outlook for India's financial sector appears bright, but it needs to brace for likely vulnerabilities, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The Indian financial sector is at a "turnpike moment", it said, adding that the dominance of banking support to credit is being reduced, and the role of capital markets is rising. For a country that aspires to be a developed nation by 2047, this is a long-awaited and welcome development, it said.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
The bulk of the incremental profits will come from oil & gas and automobile sectors.
India's foreign exchange reserves have jumped to an all-time high of $651.5 billion as of May 31, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday. This means the overall kitty has increased by $4.83 billion since the last reported number of $646.673 billion on May 24 this year.
Online video platform YouTube's ecosystem has contributed over Rs 10,000 crore to India's GDP and supported more than 7.5 lakh full-time equivalent jobs in the country, according to a report. In India, over 4,500 channels had over 10 lakh subscribers and the number of YouTube channels in India making Rs 1 lakh or more in their annual revenue increased by over 60 per cent year-over-year in 2021, the YouTube Impact Report based on analysis by Oxford Economics said. "YouTube's creative ecosystem contributed over Rs 10,000 crore and supported more than 7,50,000 full-time equivalent jobs in the Indian economy in 2021. "That economic impact shows up in four ways, through direct, indirect, induced, and catalytic impacts," the report said.
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday raised India's growth forecast for 2024 calendar year to 6.8 per cent, from 6.1 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of 'stronger-than-expected' economic data of 2023 and fading global economic headwinds. India's real GDP expanded 8.4 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2023, resulting in a 7.7 per cent growth for full-year 2023. Capital spending by the government and strong manufacturing activity have meaningfully contributed to the robust growth outcomes in 2023, Moody's Investors Service said.
The government may relax the requirement of making payments to MSMEs within 45 days of buying goods and services to check large corporate from looking at other sourcing avenues, sources said. The announcement to this effect could be made in the Budget likely to be presented on July 23. The government is considering suggestions regarding changes to Section 43B(h) of the Income Tax Act made by MSMEs during pre-Budget consultations, sources said.
Profits of India's top listed companies have been growing at a faster pace than those of their American peers, but when it comes to revenue growth, the order has reversed recently. The combined net profit of the S&P 500 companies was up 14.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during the trailing 12 months (TTM) ended December 2023, as against 17.4 per cent profit growth logged by the BSE 500 companies in the same period. This is the second consecutive year of faster profit growth for the BSE 500 companies.
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