Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
The rupee fell by 41 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.36 (provisional) against the US dollar on Tuesday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.04 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 79.02 and a low of 79.38. It finally settled at 79.36 (provisional), down 41 paise over its previous close.
The domestic stock market may face volatility amid the monthly derivatives expiry scheduled this week, while investors would mainly await the outcome of RBI's interest rate decision on Friday, said analysts. Global market movement would also continue to drive sentiment amid a bearish trend recently following rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take cues from its global counterparts to raise interest rate for the fourth time in a row to control inflation.
'The Fed rate will peak in the range of 5.1-5.3 per cent during the second quarter of CY23 and will most likely stay there for a while before rate cuts start in CY24.'
The rupee depreciated 11 paise to a record low of 78.96 against the US dollar in opening trade on Wednesday, weighed down by persistent foreign capital outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened on a weak note at 78.86 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 78.96 -- its all-time low level, registering a fall of 11 paise from the last close. On Tuesday, the rupee plunged by 48 paise to close at record low of 78.85 against the US dollar.
Equity benchmarks fell sharply on Thursday in line with an extremely weak trend in the global markets, with the Sensex plunging 1,154.78 points in early trade. Persistent foreign fund outflows and a spurt in crude oil prices also dampened sentiment. The 30-share BSE benchmark was trading 1,154.78 points lower at 53,053.75. The broader NSE Nifty tumbled 335.65 points to 15,904.65.
Benchmark indices continued their downtrend for the fifth session on the trot on Thursday, with the Sensex tumbling nearly 817 points in early trade, tracking weak global trends and selling in index majors Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank. Unabated selling by foreign institutional investors also weighed on the sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 816.78 points lower at 53,271.61. The NSE Nifty declined 234.05 points to 15,933.05.
'While foreign institutional investor flows are still negative, they will turn positive in the latter part of 2023 as India's resilient growth becomes perceptible.'
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
The rupee plunged 20 paise to close at an all-time low of 78.13 against the US dollar on Monday, as a lacklustre trend in domestic equities and stronger greenback overseas weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said weak Asian currencies and persistent foreign capital outflows were the other major factors that dragged the local unit down. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 78.20 and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.02 and a low of 78.29 against the US dollar.
'The market will focus on the fact that India does have strong earnings growth this year.'
The recent run on the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the subsequent seizure of its assets by the regulators may have sparked a global wave of risk aversion, particularly for start-ups. However, the Indian banking sector is unlikely to be a victim of any contagion effects, said analysts. he bank, which played a big role in financing start-ups and technology players, faced stress after incurring huge losses on its holdings of US bonds, following the most-aggressive monetary tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve in around four decades.
Investors' wealth on Thursday tumbled over Rs 2.81 lakh crore as stocks declined in line with selloff in global equities. The 30-share BSE benchmark index tanked 581.21 points or 1 per cent to settle at 57,276.94. During the day, it cracked 1,418.79 points to 56,439.36. In tandem with weak trend in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms tanked Rs 2,81,147.38 crore to Rs 2,59,97,419.48 crore.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
The Indian financial services space seems to be in a sweet spot as foreign investors have made a net investment of Rs 14,205 crore ($2.1 billion) in the sector in November amid strong credit growth and manageable non-performing loan portfolio. The investment comes following a net withdrawal of Rs 4,686 crore from financial services stocks in October on account of profit booking. Overall, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have made a net investment of Rs 36,238 crore in the country's equity markets in November.
Mixed earnings and not so encouraging macroeconomic data dented sentiment, Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said. In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent, while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. In the broader market, BSE Midcap declined 0.73 per cent while smallcap dropped 0.45 per cent.
The Indian economy recovered from the Covid-induced downturn during 2022 and is poised for further improvement in the coming quarters though downside risks emanating from geopolitical tensions, strengthening dollar and elevated inflation will continue. The positive trajectory in the growth trend and improved fundamentals will help the nation in neutralising the impact of global headwinds which are expected to have a bearing on the country's exports in the months to come. The challenges before the government and the Reserve Bank in the new year would be to arrest inflation, check declining value of rupee against US dollar and promote private investment and growth, with a view to ensure that the country remains one the fastest growing major economies of the world.
'New record for the Nifty50 is only a question of when.'
Equity investors became poorer by over Rs 6.71 lakh crore on Thursday as domestic benchmark indices tumbled amid a global market meltdown. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex tanked 1,416.30 points or 2.61 per cent to settle at 52,792.23, tracking weak global markets and persistent foreign fund outflows. In line with the weak market trend, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms tumbled by Rs 6,71,051.73 crore to stand at Rs 2,49,06,394.08 crore.
'Then select those that are well-aligned with your risk-return profile and investment time horizon.'
IPO market hopes to come out of slump in festive season, reports Sundar Sethuraman.
An escalation in the already simmering tensions between North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine could prove to be a bigger worry for the markets over the next few months rather than central bank policy action, said analysts. The markets, they said, are still not fully factoring in this possibility. "The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is another geopolitical worry.
Benchmark indices failed to hold on to early gains and closed in the red for the seventh straight session on Thursday, with participants remaining in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the RBI's interest rate decision. Unabated selling by foreign funds added to the pressure, though a modest recovery in the rupee cushioned the fall, traders said. After rallying in early trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex came under selling pressure in the afternoon session and closed 188.32 points or 0.33 per cent lower at 56,409.96.
Investors' wealth has eroded by over Rs 680,441 crore in three days of market fall amid weak global trends and muted domestic sentiments. Extending its losses for the third straight day, BSE benchmark Sensex on Thursday finished below the 60,000-level, weighed by hectic selling in IT, energy and finance stocks amid a sell-off in European equities. The index has lost 1,844.29 points in three sessions.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
Benchmark stock indices opened the week on a muted note on Monday, with the Sensex plunging nearly 483 points due to selling in IT, capital goods and banking shares amid losses in global equities. The Sensex tanked 482.61 points or 0.81 per cent to settle at 58,964.57. During the day, it tumbled 552.78 points or 0.92 per cent to 58,894.40. The 50-issue Nifty declined by 109.40 points or 0.62 per cent to finish at 17,674.95 as 29 of its stocks declined.
BSE benchmark Sensex nursed losses on Friday as investors pocketed gains after a five-session winning streak amid a bearish trend overseas. A depreciating rupee and foreign fund outflows further soured risk sentiment, traders said. The 30-share gauge, which had started the trade on a firm note, soon gave up all the gains and finally ended 651.85 points or 1.08 per cent lower at 59,646.15. The broader NSE Nifty snapped its eight-day rally to close at 17,758.45, down 198.05 points or 1.10 per cent.
Conventional wisdom is that when the US sneezes, emerging markets like India catch a cold. And yet the Indian stock market went up last year, points out Debashish Basu.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in October after being net sellers in the previous month. In October, FPIs bought shares worth nearly Rs 8,430 crore ($1 billion) against net selling of Rs 13,405 crore ($1.6 billion) in September. Positive flows during three of the previous four months have pushed the domestic markets towards fresh all-time highs. At present, the Sensex and Nifty are less than 2 per cent shy of breaching record highs logged in October 2021. A rally in equity markets in the US and Europe is in hopes that the Federal Reserve may go soft on rate hikes after its November meeting.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled out Rs 17,696 crore from the Indian markets in December so far amid uncertainty due to a new coronavirus strain, Omicron, and expectations of faster tapering by the US Federal Reserve. According to the depositories data, FPIs took out Rs 13,470 crore from equities, Rs 4,066 crore from the debt segment and Rs 160 crore from hybrid instruments between December 1-17. In November, FPIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 2,521 crore in Indian markets.
'The idea is to invest where there is opportunity.'
Equity market sentiment this week will be guided by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers, while bourses may also see some volatility amid expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said. Fears of sooner-than-expected tapering in monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve, rising cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus coupled with China's regulatory crackdown triggered selling in global markets in the previous week.
Nine of the top-10 most valued companies together lost a whopping Rs 309,178.44 crore in market valuation last week as selloffs continued. In a holiday-shortened past week, the 30-share BSE Sensex plummeted 1,836.95 points or 3.11 per cent amid geopolitical tensions, global sell-off triggered by a hawkish US Federal Reserve and unabated foreign fund outflows. From the top-10 list, State Bank of India was the lone gainer as its valuation jumped Rs 18,340.07 crore to reach Rs 467,069.54 crore.
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
Expect heightened volatility and stress to hit the markets. Caution may be the need of the hour, alerts Akash Prakash.
The spike in volatility may not have impacted equity inflows, but it has weighed on new investors coming via the systematic investment plan (SIP) route. In May, 1.97 million new SIPs got registered - nearly 15 per cent lower than the previous five-month average of 2.3 million - reveals the data provided by the Association of Mutual Funds in India. Since June 2021, new SIP registrations have been upwards of 2 million each calendar month. The new SIP tally in May was the lowest in 12 months.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
If you don't have a specific goal, but want intermittent liquidity, then ladder your FDs, that is, invest in FDs of varying maturities, such as one, two, three, five or even 10 years. Laddering ensures FDs mature at regular intervals.
Indian start-ups breathed a sigh of relief after the UK government facilitated the acquisition of the now-defunct Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB's) British arm by HSBC. In a bid to allay fears, the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FIDC) announced recently that it had transferred all deposits of start-up-focused SVB to a newly created bridge bank and all depositors would have access to their money. President Joe Biden also sought to reassure jittery depositors that they can have confidence that the US banking system is "safe".
