Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPIs) selling spree continues as they pulled out over Rs 3,400 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first three trading sessions of November on rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This came after such investors withdrew Rs 24,548 crore in October and Rs 14,767 crore in September, data with the depositories showed. Before the outflow, FPIs were incessantly buying Indian equities in the last six months from March to August and brought in Rs 1.74 lakh crore during the period.
Investors' wealth eroded by Rs 7.59 lakh crore on Monday as the equity market took a heavy drubbing amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 825.74 points or 1.26 per cent to settle at 64,571.88 points. During the day, the index plummeted 894.94 points or 1.36 per cent to 64,502.68 points.
Notwithstanding concerns about lofty valuations, smallcaps recorded their most significant monthly gain in nearly three years in November. The National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 100 finished the month with a 12 per cent gain, the most since February 2021 when it rose by 12.2 per cent. After declining by 4.1 per cent in the preceding month, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose by 10.4 per cent, the most since July 2022.
'With China falling out of favour, India is where investors see the demographic and digital dividend apart from the benefits of reforms playing out.' 'Your prime minister has also done a great job of sharing this story with the world.'
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
Eleven companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2023, making this month the second-best December for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they are raising Rs 8,182.7 crore this month. In December 2021, 11 companies raised Rs 9,534 crore. However, excluding December 2021, this month marks the best December for IPOs since 1996.
For five consecutive policy reviews in 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chose to hold rates, citing inflation threat. And when the prices did cool off a bit, it reminded all about the target to get the headline consumer price inflation at 4 per cent and the risks from food inflation. Heading into the new year, all eyes are on when RBI will cut the rates, especially after one of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members stressed on the need for such an action in the face of the US Federal Reserve's guidance for easing rates.
These schemes are a good choice for investors contemplating a large investment in equity funds. Instead of investing all the money in one go, they can do so in a staggered manner by parking it in these schemes and then transferring it to equity mutual funds through a systematic transfer plan.
'Earnings will be the catalyst for markets to march higher from here on out.'
Gold price declined Rs 305 to Rs 56,035 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid a fall in rates of precious metal in the overseas markets, according to HDFC Securities. The yellow metal had settled at Rs 56,340 per 10 grams in the previous trade. Silver also plummeted Rs 805 to Rs 65,095 per kg.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
A piece of slightly negative news can cause a serious setback, warns Debashis Basu.
Tata Motors was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, skidding 1.77 per cent, followed by SBI, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, Titan, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries and Maruti. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, NTPC, HCL Technologies, HDFC and Sun Pharma were the gainers.
Equity markets this week will be largely guided by trends in global stocks, foreign funds' trading activity and progress of monsoon, analysts said. Investors will also track the movement of rupee against the US dollar and crude oil prices. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed at fresh lifetime highs on Friday.
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
In the backdrop of an over four-decade high inflation, the US Federal Open Market Committee has raised its key policy interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25-2.50 per cent, anticipating that the increase in the interest rates will be "appropriate". Hiking interest rates typically cool demand in the economy, thereby putting a brake on the inflation rate. The US Federal Reserve in its June meeting too raised the interest rate by 75 basis points, which was the steepest hike since 1994.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
Wipro was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, slipping nearly 2 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC and Bajaj Finserv. On the other hand, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints and Maruti were among the gainers.
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
In a dazzling resurgence, foreign investors have graced the Indian equity markets with an influx of nearly Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2023, fuelled by optimism over the country's resilient economic fundamentals amid shadows of a gloomy global scenario. Experts believe that the positive trend may continue in 2024. This follows Indian equities witnessing the worst-ever net outflow of Rs 1.21 lakh crore by FPIs in 2022 on aggressive rate hikes by the central banks globally after net inflows for three consecutive years.
Benchmark indices ended lower on Wednesday, halting their eight days of rally, ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and mixed global market trends. Also, fall in index majors Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and Larsen & Toubro added to the weak trend in equities. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 161.41 points or 0.26 per cent to settle at 61,193.30.
Among Sensex shares, Bajaj Finserv fell the most by 4.08 per cent. Bajaj Finance declined by 3.01 per cent, Tata Steel by 2.2 per cent, Wipro by 2.09 per cent, Tata Motors by 1.96 per cent, IndusInd Bank by 1.9 per cent, SBI by 1.75 per cent, Tech Mahindra by 1.66 per cent and HCL Tech by 1.2 per cent. TCS, Infosys, Power Grid, Maruti, Reliance, HDFC twins, L&T, M&M, NTPC and Ultratech Cement were also among the losers.
Only the top 5 per cent profit makers account for 75 per cent of profits.
Boom, bust or a bit of both: as the jury bides time before ruling on the US 'recession', the economy's vital signs at a perplexing time of high-interest rates, still-punishing inflation, and surprisingly strong economic gains are a study of a growing debate over whether the world's largest economy is barrelling into a new downturn. With the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) inflation fighters attempting the risky pursuit of 'pillow-soft landings' and its economy sending out mixed signals, if there is indeed a recession, it could spell trouble for domestic equities and corporate earnings growth.
Smaller stocks have emerged as Dalal Street's favourites in 2023 that has turned out to be a "great year" for equities, rewarding investors with big gains, driven by optimism over the country's macroeconomic fundamentals and heavy retail investors participation. Experts said equity markets are experiencing a prolonged bull run and it is during this time that the midcap and smallcap segments tend to outshine their larger counterparts. Till December 22 this year, the BSE smallcap gauge has jumped 13,074.96 points or 45.20 per cent while the midcap index has surged 10,568.18 points or 41.74 per cent.
Investors may take a 5 to 10 per cent exposure to silver. 'Have a long-term investment horizon when investing in silver ETFs to ride out short-term market fluctuations.'
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, PowerGrid and Bajaj Finserve gained up to 2.01 per cent. On the other hand, bellwether stocks such as ITC, Kotak Mahindra, Tech Mahindra and Reliance were the laggards. ITC shares closed the session with a loss of 3.87 per cent lower and Reliance ended 1.92 per cent lower.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
Despite its admirable competence and proven track record, the RBI doesn't have the capacity to supervise an economy that's growing so fast and becoming larger by the year, points out T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
The country's largest software exporter TCS on Wednesday reported a 16.83 per cent jump in its June quarter consolidated net profit to Rs 11,074 crore. The Tata Group company had reported a net profit of Rs 9,478 crore in the year-ago period and Rs 11,392 crore in the preceding quarter. Its revenue from operations increased 12.55 per cent on a year-on-year basis to Rs 59,381 crore and was marginally up from the preceding March quarter's Rs 59,162 crore.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty on Friday spurted by nearly 2 per cent, propelled by heavy buying in IT, metal and financial stocks amid a rally in global markets after lower-than-expected US inflation data. A strong rupee against the US dollar and unabated foreign capital inflows further bolstered sentiment, traders said. Easing US inflation triggered speculation that the US Federal Reserve might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.
From the Sensex pack, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, NTPC and UltraTech Cement emerged as major winners, closing the day with a gain of up to 3.33 per cent. On the other hand, Asian Paints, ITC, L&T and SBI were the laggards, ending the session up to 3.95 per cent lower. Of the 30 Sensex stocks, 14 closed the day in green, while on the 50-stock index Nifty 25 scrips ended with gains.
Fundraising activity in the debt market is gaining momentum ahead of the festival season. Several non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard) are planning to raise at least Rs 5,560 crore in the next two days by issuing bonds, with a greenshoe size of Rs 6,370 crore. Ajay Malglunia, managing director and head of investment grade group at JM Financial, said, "The market likes certainty, the market will gain clarity after the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) policy.
In the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro, Titan, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, HDFC Bank and HDFC were the major laggards. On the other hand, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, ITC, State Bank of India, Tata Steel and Sun Pharma were among the gainers.
Investors are increasingly turning optimistic about shares of new-age companies. From broad-based 'sell' calls, analysts are giving thumbs up to Zomato, Paytm, and FSN e-Commerce Ventures-owned Nykaa as these companies have shifted focus to sustainable profits. The shares of Zomato hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 126 apiece on the BSE on November 7, having rallied 15.4 per cent in one week.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
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