The Indian rupee may experience some volatility in the early days of Donald Trump's presidency, but it is likely to stabilise soon after, a report by the State Bank of India (SBI) said on Tuesday, terming this short term phenomenon as "Trump Tantrum".
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
The Indian economy is expected to be "a little weaker" in 2025 despite steady global growth, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has said. Georgieva also said she expects quite a lot of uncertainty in the world this year mainly around the trade policy of the US. In her annual media roundtable with a group of reporters on Friday, she said global growth is expected to be steady in 2025, but with regional divergence.
India is among the three least-favoured Asian stock markets, according to BofA Securities whose survey found that 10 per cent of fund managers are underweight on Indian equities from a 12-month perspective.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato cracked nearly 7 per cent. Power Grid, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement were the other major laggards. In contrast, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
Around six weeks ago, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, India's largest drugmaker, suffered a setback, which led to a selloff in the share. The US District Court of New Jersey granted Incyte's request for a preliminary injunction against Sun Pharma's launch of Leqselvi, a drug that treats alopecia.
The economic impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 on emerging economies will depend on a mix of government restrictions, public comfort with social interactions, and capacity of governments and central banks to provide additional policy support to the private sector, Moody's Investors Service said on Wednesday. The emergence of the new variant poses new risks to the global economic growth and inflation outlook, as concerns mount about the variant's health risks and several countries have imposed new travel restrictions in recent days. These restrictions will likely increase over the coming weeks until scientists learn more about the variant, it said.
Market reaction to the Union Budget was overall neutral. The income tax "gift" wasn't enough to move the needle. There was some apparent rationalisation of Customs duty structure as well as cuts on import duties of some key components for the telecom and IT industry and duty cuts on vehicle imports. Other proposals related to development of agriculture and rural economy and renewables seem to be generally positive.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
'The finance minister has done as much as she can when you look into the fiscal constraints she had.'
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) share price plunged 6.66 per cent to Rs 1,203.50 per share on the NSE during Friday after analysts remained cautious on the company's Q3 performance and differed on its growth outlook. DRL's Q3 performance was viewed as subdued by some analysts when they adjusted it for one-time grants and incomes that the company received during the quarter.
The year-to-date returns are 13.33 per cent for Indian funds, compared to 11.66 per cent for emerging market funds overall.
Housing prices in India have fallen by over a tenth in real terms. Yet, prices are unaffordable for most Indians. Middle-income Indians are seen to be able to afford houses if the price-to-income ratio is five. It is 11 in India.
As it is a highly liquid asset, central banks can afford to look past its short-term volatility to longer-run average returns.
Foreign investors have made a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 22,766 crore in the first two weeks of December driven by expectations of rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October -- the worst monthly outflow on record.
Sazerac Company, the largest distiller in the US, is looking to leverage India's position as the world's largest whisky market to introduce a range of bourbon whiskies in the country. Identifying India as a key priority market, Diego Bianchi, general manager of emerging markets and Barrel Select at Sazerac Company, told Business Standard that new consumers, including women, will be key drivers for the growth of the category in India. "India, particularly, is where some of the fastest-growing consumers are.
The recent stimulus measures announced by China have seen most analysts sit up and take notice.
Gold buying by central banks surged to 60 tonnes in October, mainly led by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which added 27 tonnes of the precious metal to its reserves, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday. India added 27 tonnes of gold in October, bringing its total gold purchases to 77 tonnes from January to October, according WGC data based on reported monthly data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath has made a strong case for regulating cryptocurrencies, saying it will always be a challenge to ban them as they operate from offshore exchanges. Gopinath also suggested a global policy and co-ordinated action for regulating cryptocurrencies. "I think cryptocurrencies are a particular challenge for emerging markets. "It seems to be more attractive to adopt cryptocurrencies and assets in emerging economies than in advanced economies," she said while addressing an event organised by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Wednesday.
Bharti Airtelis looking to buy assets in emerging markets - the latest sign that India 's biggest mobile phone operator could broaden its base. One would see Bharti, which has a market value of $44bn, make a partial tender offer for a 51 per cent stake in MTN. This would allow MTN to retain its listing in Johannesburg and reduce the debt Bharti would need to take on to finance a deal.
'The shifts in US involvement in global conflicts and geopolitical alliances could introduce uncertainties.'
Aaron Low, principal, Lumen Advisors says in 2017 developed nations will outdo emerging ones.
The recent depreciation of the rupee along with sharp fall in the country's foreign exchange (FX) reserves has sparked a debate whether stability of the exchange rate is necessary and desirable. The rupee was one of the least volatile currencies among peers for almost two years before the current downward pressure started in September after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rate.
With India overtaking China in terms of weightage in the Morgan Stanley emerging markets IMI, Indian equities could see inflows of about $4.5 billion (Rs 37,000 crore), according to estimates. This week, Morgan Stanley announced that India has overtaken China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (MSCI EM IMI). The weight of India in MSCI EM IMI stood at 22.27 per cent compared to 21.58 per cent of China.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
Trading activity of foreign investors and global trends will be the major driving factors for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. Leading stock exchanges BSE and NSE have declared a trading holiday on November 20 for assembly elections in Maharashtra. Elections to the 288-member state legislative assembly will be held on November 20, and votes will be counted on November 23.
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Small and midcaps are leading the charge in the latest market rebound. Since November 21, when the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty hit their recent lows and slipped into correction territory, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has risen by 8 per cent, while the Nifty Midcap 100 has gained 5.7 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 index has risen by 4.7 per cent during this period.
Shane Oliver, Head-Investment Strategy at AMP Capital Investors, believes that higher US labour cost has fuelled rate hike fears again. According to him, the Fed may have finished with its rate hike cycle.
The Reserve Bank on Friday raised the inflation projection for current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent with Governor Shaktikanta Das saying lingering food price pressures are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter. Consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased sharply in September and October 2024 led by an unanticipated increase in food prices.
'If you look at where inflation (headline and core) is today in India and where the rates are, there's clearly room to cut rates.'
A sharp rally in domestic stocks from June lows has once again rendered Indian markets expensive to their emerging-market (EM) peers. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Nifty50 Index is around 20.6x - 82 per cent higher than 11.3 per cent for the MSCI EM Index. India's valuation premium has hit a five-month high. This is on the back of sharp outperformance to EM and global peers from June lows and also due to earnings downgrades, following the April-June quarter of 2022-23 earnings.
Among sectors in Asia, JP Morgan prefers financials, domestic consumer discretionary and consumer technology. Notwithstanding the fall in the Sensex and the Nifty during the end of 2008, major emerging market fund managers actually increased their allocation to India in December.
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