The government bond yield curve is likely to flatten in the financial year 2027 (FY27) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to ease supply pressure in the ultra-long segment. In FY26 so far, reduced investments by insurance companies and pension funds pushed up yields on ultra-long tenor securities, steepening the curve.
Reserve Bank on Friday decided to cut Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by a huge 1 per cent, which will unlock Rs 2.5 lakh crore liquidity to the banking system for lending to productive sectors of the economy. With the reduction in four equal tranches ending November 29, 2025, the CRR would come down to 3 per cent.
ICICI Bank delivered satisfactory results in the second quarter of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), sustaining return on assets (RoA) of around 2.3-2.4 per cent and improving asset quality. Provisions declined 26 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and 50 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q).
The liquidity deficit in the banking system crossed Rs 2 trillion again on Monday, despite the second instalment of cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction coming into effect from December 28.
To ease the potential liquidity stress, the Reserve Bank on Friday slashed Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4 per cent, a move that would unlock Rs 1.16 lakh crore bank funds. The RBI on May 4, 2022 had raised CRR to 4.5 per cent from 4 per cent in an off-cycle Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, with effect from May 21 the same year.
'They are positioned as defensive products and can potentially give marginally higher returns than liquid funds.'
'The US reciprocal tariff has added another element of uncertainty and the central bank may prefer to wait and get further clarity.'
For the time being, the RBI is done with the cuts. A cut in October, which many are still predicting, is not certain. Of course, if growth nosedives, the script will be different, expects Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India's economy is expected to grow 6.4-6.7 per cent during the current financial year driven by strong domestic demand, even as geopolitical uncertainty poses downside risks, the newly appointed CII president Rajiv Memani said on Thursday.
Infrastructure bonds, which were relied upon the most in 2024-25 (FY25) by commercial banks to raise funds through the domestic debt capital market amid lagging deposit growth, seem to have lost their sheen in FY26. So far in FY26, no bank has tapped the domestic debt capital market to raise funds via infra bonds, and the expectation is that the amount raised through this route will be significantly lower than that last year, unless credit demand picks up.
Mixed views were expressed by top economists on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate at 5.5% and maintain a neutral stance. While some say the decision was as expected and one more rate reduction is expected this fiscal, there is also a view that rate cut by MPC was warranted given the evolving global situation.
The change in stance to neutral from accommodative in the June monetary policy meeting does not necessarily signal that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate setting body - monetary policy committee (MPC) - will go on a prolonged pause on rate cuts going forward, believe experts.
Housing demand should improve nationwide after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points (bps) on Friday, said real estate industry executives. The rate cut comes after housing sales in top Indian cities in the first quarter of 2025 dipped 28 per cent due to skyrocketing residential property prices and geopolitical headwinds, according to Anarock.
Since February 2025, the RBI has reduced the policy rate by 100 basis points. In its previous policy review in April, it had also trimmed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 per cent.
Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, HDFC Bank, and NTPC were among the other major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma were the laggards.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) decision to cut the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5% was contrary to the expectations of many economists. Firstly, most of the economists expected the MPC to cut the repo rate by 25 bps citing the weakening of inflation, prospects of economic growth, geopolitical uncertainty and comfortable system liquidity.
After investing a staggering amount in May, foreign investors turned net sellers with a withdrawal of Rs 8,749 crore from the Indian equity markets in the first week of this month triggered by renewed US-China trade tensions and rising US bond yields. This momentum follows a net investment of Rs 19,860 crore in May and Rs 4,223 crore in April, data with the depositories showed.
Retail inflation dipped to an over six-year low of 2.82 per cent in May due to subdued food prices, remaining below the RBI's median target of 4 per cent for the fourth consecutive month, according to government data released on Thursday. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 3.16 per cent in April and 4.8 per cent in May 2024.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
The Reserve Bank should focus on making liquidity easier rather than cutting rates if the intent is to drive growth, Axis Bank's chief economist Neelkanth Mishra said on Tuesday. Mishra, who is also a part-time member of the Economic Advisory Council to the PM, said the rate cut announced earlier this month or even the subsequent ones if they were to come will not end up increasing borrowings as the scarce liquidity will hamper transmission.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
Net profit of 19 listed banks is likely to decline by 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for the quarter ended March (Q4FY25) mainly due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) as a result of rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts' estimates. Additionally, loan growth is expected to further slowdown amid low demand in certain secured products, stress in the unsecured segment, and a high cost to deposit (CD) ratio across the system.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the 11th time in a row but sharply lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal, as against earlier projection of 7.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo on interest rate despite July-September quarter GDP growth falling to 7-quarter low of 5.4 per cent, as against its own projection of 7 per cent.
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
RBI cuts GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent for current financial year, from earlier forecast of 7.2 per cent.
Infrastructure bond issuances by commercial banks in the current financial year (FY25) are likely to surpass Rs 1 trillion, almost double that of FY24, market participants said. So far this financial year, banks have raised Rs 74,256 crore via infra bonds. In FY24, the total issuances stood at around Rs 51,081 crore.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is set for "resilient growth" in 2025 and projected inflation pressure to recede which will lead to "modest" easing of the monetary policy by the RBI. In its India outlook for 2025, S&P also retained India's growth forecast for current fiscal at 6.8 per cent, followed by 6.9 per cent growth in 2025-26.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
State Bank of India (SBI), India's largest lender, is looking to raise Rs 10,000 crore through 15-year infrastructure bonds as early as next week, said multiple sources aware of the development. Market participants expect a coupon in the range of 7.15-7.18 per cent for SBI's upcoming infrastructure bond issuance. This comes as demand for longer-tenor papers has remained strong in recent domestic capital market offerings.
A day after his appointment as the 26th governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), outgoing Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on Tuesday said one must understand the economic landscape and do what was best for the economy. "Let me first go, join, understand the turf ... Here it is a different role," Malhotra said, speaking to reporters in front of North Block.
Foreign investors have made a strong comeback to Indian equities with a net investment of Rs 22,766 crore in the first two weeks of December driven by expectations of rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This revival follows significant outflows in the preceding months, with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulling out a net Rs 21,612 crore in November and a massive Rs 94,017 crore in October -- the worst monthly outflow on record.
The performance of banking and information technology (IT) stocks has had a significant impact on the composition of diversified mutual fund (MF) portfolios. Over the past two months, these sectors have become increasingly dominant, now constituting nearly 30 per cent of the total allocation in many diversified MF portfolios.
When investing in fixed-income products, balancing considerations like safety, liquidity, and income is essential.
From the 30-share pack, Adani Port, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank, HCL Technologies and ICICI Bank were among the laggards. Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro, ITC and Tata Steel were among the gainers.
Public-sector banks, including Canara Bank and Bank of India, are tapping the infrastructure bond market. Canara Bank on Tuesday raised Rs 10,000 crore at a coupon rate of 7.40 per cent through 10-year infrastructure bonds. This comes after SBI on July 10 raised Rs 10,000 crore also through infrastructure bonds with a 15-year tenor at a coupon rate of 7.36 per cent.
A CRR cut will help banks to reduce lending rates.
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