The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is likely to report muted results in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25) due to weakness in urban consumption. The weakness may persist through the first half of 2025-26 (H1FY26).
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Benchmark Sensex closed above the 85,000 level for the first time while Nifty scaled the 26,000 peak at close on Wednesday as fag-end buying in banking and power shares helped stock markets recoup early losses. After a see-saw trade during the day, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 255.83 points or 0.30 per cent to settle at an all-time high of 85,169.87. During the day, it surged 333.38 points or 0.39 per cent to hit a record intra-day peak of 85,247.42.
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Domestic equity markets, which are at record high levels, will be driven by quarterly earnings, global trends and foreign fund movement, analysts said. The movement of rupee and global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked by investors. "The direction of global stock markets, fluctuations in the rupee-to-dollar exchange rate, and movement in crude oil prices will all play a crucial role in influencing the overall market trend.
Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd's impressive stock market debut has brought cheer to the 100-year-old Bajaj Group, but the conglomerate faces the prospect of Bajaj Finserv being removed from the benchmark Sensex index. According to market expectations, Trent, a Tata group-owned fashion retailer, is likely to replace Bajaj Finserv during the upcoming index rebalancing in December.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
Arbitrage funds, the new favourite of individual investors, delivered their best performance in nearly a decade in 2024. On average, the schemes delivered 8 per cent return last year, the highest since 2016, according to data from Value Research. The returns were supported by positive equity market sentiments, surge in open interest in stock futures, high interest rate, among other factors, analysts said.
'Retail investors have to stick to their asset allocation plans and continuously do portfolio reviews.'
The only silver lining in March's performance -- which otherwise dragged down the financial year's momentum -- was a 6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth compared to March of the previous year. This is largely due to incentives, festival-driven gains, and new launches.
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
Equity markets will take cues from global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, while in the latter part of the week the first quarter earnings from IT majors TCS and HCL Technologies would guide investor sentiments, analysts said. Markets may consolidate after the record rally last week, experts added. "On the domestic front, the Q1 earnings season begins this week. Key companies such as TCS and HCL Technologies will release their earnings on July 11 and 12, 2024, respectively.
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The trigger for international gold prices rising to $3,000 per ounce was Germany's upcoming heavy government borrowing.
rediffGURU and financial planning expert Colonel Sanjeev Govila (retd) answers your personal finance-related questions.
After a brutal selloff since October, foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows for the year-to-date (YTD) in 2024 have turned negative. In early September, YTD FPI investments peaked at a record Rs 22,000 crore ($2.6 billion). This wave of selling has also pulled down benchmark indices, with the Nifty's YTD returns declining to 11 per cent from their high of 21 per cent in September.
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In the Sensex pack, HCLTech rose the maximum by 3.12 per cent, followed by ITC which gained 2.73 per cent and M&M went up 2.61 per cent. TCS climbed 2.44 per cent. Tech Mahindra, Wipro, L&T and Maruti were among the other major gainers.
It has mostly been a one-way street for smallcap stocks that have taken it on their chin thus far in February. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has shed 3.2 per cent in the current month as compared to the 1.8 per cent decline in the Nifty Midcap 100 and the 0.5 per cent drop in the Nifty 50 index, data showed. Technically, the index has slipped below its 20-day moving average (DMA) placed at 14,800 levels on Monday, and is currently testing the 50-DMA, and is placed at 14,278 levels.
Trading volumes for the equities cash segment remained soft, even as the benchmark indices rallied nearly 9 per cent in July. Meanwhile, volumes in the futures and options (F&O) market dipped marginally, but continued to hover at record levels. In July, the average daily turnover (ADTV) for the cash segment was Rs 46,602 crore, up 4.5 per cent month-on-month (MoM), but 26 per cent lower than the preceding 12-month average.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
I would buy on every dip like today when markets fall in small parts. And surely hold on to the stock with even a two-year outlook, says market expert Pranav Sanghavi.
With billionaire Gautam Adani charged in the United States with alleged bribery and fraud, the Congress on Thursday said it 'vindicates' its demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation into the various 'scams' involving his conglomerate.
The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai) has asked at least 10 general and life insurance companies to submit a detailed road map for their listing strategies by the end of this month, according to multiple sources with direct knowledge of the matter. "The regulator met four life and six general insurers last month and asked them to provide their listing strategies by the end of February," said one of the sources.
While Elon Musk's political influence continues to grow, his business empire is witnessing headwinds.
In June, Sensex went up 6.6% and Nifty 6.9%, their best monthly gains since December 2023.
Stocks of Indian steel companies are reeling from pricing pressure that is partly blamed on cheap imports. The stocks have declined up to 9 per cent on the NSE in one month, likely allowing investors an opportunity to use the correction to enter the pack as pricing pressure eases. "In steel or any other commodity, if prices or spreads are nearing their bottom, it can be an opportune time to invest in those stocks. In India, domestic fundamentals such as steel consumption remain robust, hence one can take fresh positions in these counters," said Amit Dixit, an analyst at ICICI Securities.
'We are going to need more technical people in government.' 'You can't expect a generalist to understand the complicated world of financial engineering.' 'I regret to say that most of our politicians have no competence to deal with these things. Nor is there a willingness to learn.'
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) had a disappointing third quarter (Q3FY25) with flat volumes (after 7 per cent growth H1FY25). Price hikes will be required to maintain margins to offset the cost of palm oil inflation. However, some analysts see Q3 as an exception with strong volume growth expected to resume and it may be the fastest growing FMCG player in FY26.
Conventional wisdom is that when the US sneezes, emerging markets like India catch a cold. And yet the Indian stock market went up last year, points out Debashish Basu.
At an aggregate level, the late ace investor's portfolio that was valued at Rs 32,445 crore as on March 31, 2023 is now worth Rs 35,979 crore.
National Stock Exchange (NSE) chief Ashishkumar Chauhan on Friday cautioned retail investors against trading in derivatives and suggested them to invest in equities through mutual fund route. He emphasized that trading in Futures & Options (F&O) derivatives should be limited to informed investors who can manage risk and comprehend the market. Recently, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran flagged the growing risk of F&O trading for retail investors.
Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
President-elect Donald Trump promised his supporters and countrymen that he will act at historic speed to fix every single crisis facing the United States, on the eve of his inauguration. Trump told his supporters at the Capitol One Arena, which was full to its capacity of 20,000 for a 'Make America Great' victory celebration, that he will act with "historic speed and strength" and fix "every single crisis facing our country." He also outlined some of his plans for his first day in office, including halting the "invasion" of the US border and restoring border security measures, which he said will be the most "aggressive, sweeping efforts to restore our borders the world has ever seen."
Escalation of the conflict in West Asia between Israel and Iran has had a direct impact on the energy markets, and more broadly on the financial markets as well as the global economy.
India's steel market is out of step with global trends. Global demand is weak with China at a huge supply surplus to its domestic demand, pushing down global steel prices. India's domestic demand for steel is strong, given the continuing infrastructure push and is likely to accelerate as urbanisation improves, and the auto sector continues to grow alongside the infrastructure push.
After a prolonged winter, the Indian edtech sector seems to be witnessing some signs of a thaw. The sector has received $608.8 million of funding across 68 deals in 2024 so far - 153 per cent more than the $240.9 million across 106 deals during the same period last year - according to data from market intelligence platform Tracxn.
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