FY22 will be the year to rebuild with the IMF projecting output growth at 11.5 per cent, economic survey at 11.0 per cent and the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee at 10.5 per cent.
Listed companies' net profit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has hit a decadal high and is expected to edge even higher over the next two financial years. According to an analysis by ICICI Securities, India's Inc net profit stood at Rs 8.4 trillion, or 4 per cent of GDP of Rs 210 trillion for the trailing 12-month period ending September. This is the highest since financial year 2011-12 (FY12), when it was at 4.6 per cent.
Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse expects the economy to continue to show positive surprises and record up to 9 per cent growth in the next fiscal. For the current financial year too, the brokerage anticipates growth to be higher than the consensus forecast of 8.4-9.5 per cent, and printing in at around 10.5 per cent. As a policy, Credit Suisse does not provide absolute growth numbers in its forecast.
The Budget, to be presented on February 1, is likely to be less worried about fiscal deficit and will be focused more on nursing the fragile growth, according to a Wall Street brokerage report. Bank of America Securities India expects the budget to peg "fiscal deficit at a high 5 per cent of GDP for FY22 and 7.2 per cent for FY21, as it is likely to step up capex, recap public sector banks, push asset sales to break government monopolies, offer sops for real estate, tax cuts for lower income groups and creation of a bad bank". Its house economists expect these spends to be funded by debt and partly by imposing a cess on high income groups and also by some non-fiscal measures like tapping the central bank's revaluation reserves and bank recapitalisation and infra bonds.
Investors became richer by over Rs 6.34 lakh crore on Monday as markets gave a big shout-out to the Budget 2021-22, which analysts termed as 'unprecedented' against the backdrop of the pandemic-induced slowdown. Cheering the Budget proposals, the BSE benchmark Sensex zoomed 2,314.84 points or 5 per cent to close at 48,600.61. During the day, it jumped 2,478.63 points to 48,764.40. This was the best Budget-day gain for the markets since 1997, analysts said. Following the extremely positive market sentiment, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies rallied Rs 6,34,069.67 crore to Rs 1,92,46,713.70 crore.
Tata Motors' UK-based subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover or JLR, reported a muted operational performance in the December quarter of financial year 2021-22 (Q3FY22). The luxury carmaker saw a 33 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in wholesale volumes to just under 70,000 units in Q3, against estimates that were 16 per cent higher. The drop in despatches to dealers was on account of shortage in semiconductors.
'We are targeting the 5G tender around January-March 2023.'
The merits and demerits of the telcos' 5G strategy however is clearly dependent on the financial muscle of players, reports Surajeet Das Gupta.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
Citing the impact of the second wave of the pandemic over the economy and consumer sentiment, Swiss brokerage Credit Suisse has lowered its nominal GDP growth forecast by 150-300 bps to 13-14 per cent, but expects a stronger recovery in the second half as it sees the lockdowns having limited impact on tax collections. Last month, Neelkanth Mishra, the co-head of equity strategy for Credit Suisse Asia Pacific, and India equity strategist, had told PTI that he expected the real GDP to fall to 8.5-9 per cent in FY22 due to the more severe pandemic attack. The virus case load has crossed the 25-million mark, death toll from the same is nearing 2.9 lakh mark, which is one of the highest in the world as the test positivity rate has been around 15 per cent for long.
NSE managing director and CEO Vikram Limaye on Wednesday said that he will not seek a second term at the stock exchange when his five-year term ends in July. This comes amid the National Stock Exchange (NSE) facing the regulatory probe in a case related to governance lapses at the bourse as well as in the co-location matter. "I have informed the board that I am not interested in pursuing a second term and will therefore not be applying and participating in the process that is underway. My tenure ends on July 16, 2022," Limaye said in a statement.
The department of investment and public asset management is racing against time to launch the LIC IPO, which could become the largest-ever listing on the Indian bourses. This would lead to some delay in the strategic divestment of IDBI Bank.
The Reserve Bank may be hitting the end of its tolerance for high inflation and will most likely hike interest rates in the first half of 2022, analysts said on Friday. The central bank will also start rolling back its accommodative policies which have led to easy liquidity conditions, they said. The view from analysts came even as inflation cooled down to 5.6 per cent for July, after two months of breaching the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.
With Covid-19 cases across the country rising rapidly once again, demand for health insurance products has spiked. Insurers are seeing an uptick in inquiries for such products and underwriting more premiums in the segment. Already, health insurance was growing at a rapid pace since the onset of the pandemic as awareness around risk had heightened among consumers. But the country recorded more than 600,000 Covid-19 cases in the past week, which is almost a six-fold rise than the previous week. Owing to this, the spike in demand for health insurance products is inevitable, experts said.
The Economic Survey released before next year's Budget could become a single volume, reverting to the practice followed till FY14. "There is so much to write about the Indian economy's performance in the past year. "Most of the exciting themes will be covered in what used to be considered Part II," said a senior government official who is part of the preparations for the Survey.
The FPI holding in India's top 100 companies, which are part of the Nifty 100 index, declined to 24.23 per cent on average at the end of March this year, from a high of 27.5 per cent at the end of March 2021. This is the lowest FPI holdings in India's top listed companies in at least three years. A general sell-off by FPIs has weighed on stock prices and the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex is down 8.5 per cent, from its 52-week high made in October 2021. Most analysts expect FPI flows to remain weak in FY23 as well, given rising bond yields in the US and an expected earnings slowdown in India due to high inflation and commodity prices.
Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate for India's economic growth to 11.1 per cent in fiscal year to March 31, 2022, as a number of cities and states announced lockdowns of varying intensities to check spread of coronavirus infections. India is suffering the world's worst outbreak of COVID-19 cases, with deaths crossing 2.22 lakh and new cases above 3.5 lakh daily. This has led to demand for imposition of nationwide strict lockdowns to stem the spread of the virus - a move that the Modi government has so far avoided after the economic devastation last year from a similar strategy.
Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Monday revised downwards its India GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 10.2 per cent from 11.8 per cent previously, citing the country's escalating health burden, faltering vaccination rate and lack of a convincing government strategy to contain the pandemic. Oxford Economics also said that notwithstanding the likelihood of further mobility restrictions, it expects India's targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and resilient consumer and business behaviour to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.
It came as a surprise to all stakeholders - competing telecom companies (telcos), most analysts and even the government's internal projections on revenues from the 5G auctions. Reliance Jio disrupted all calculations by paying a stiff Rs 40,000 crore to buy 10 MHz of spectrum in the 700-MHz band, globally considered a key band for efficient 5G service coverage, along with the default 3.5 GHz band and the ultra-high speed and low-latency millimetre band of 26 GHz band. So what made Jio pay almost 45 per cent of its total spend in this auction for the 700 MHz band - much more than what it rustled up even for the 3.5 GHz band?
The government's food subsidy in the ongoing fiscal year is expected to be a little less than Rs 4 trillion.
'The selling in India may emerge as soon as the RBI reverses its interest rate stance.'
After navigating the turbulent pandemic waves, the recovering Indian economy is now sailing through unchartered waters of rising coronavirus cases, spiralling commodity prices and spiking inflation though the lighthouse of sustainable growth remains visible. As 2022 begins, a raft of developments, ranging from Budgetary announcements to continuation of stimulus measures to monetary policy, will set the tone for the domestic economy, which is projected to grow more than 9 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2022. The country's continuing massive vaccination drive and 'precaution' doses starting for select categories of people this month will provide a firewall against any steep spike in coronavirus cases amid the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
While domestic market growth is important, the sales trajectory in the international markets, which account for 45 per cent of the revenues, will be a key rerating trigger, say analysts.
North Block is concerned that when India is trying to attract more investment, putting up restrictions on audit firms could create an avoidable bad advertisement.
Tata Steel was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 2 per cent, followed by Sun Pharma, ICICI Bank, SBI, Kotak Bank and Dr Reddy's. NSE Nifty dropped 151.75 points to 15,727.90.
Indian economy is expected to grow 10.5 per cent or more in the current fiscal, Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Thursday. Speaking at a virtual conference organised by the Public Affairs Forum of India (PAFI), he also said that modernisation of the retail sector is very much on the cards. "India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both manufacturing and services has shown a very smart uptick last month. "This (Indian economy) will strengthen even further," he said. "I expect Indian economy to grow 10.5 per cent or higher in FY 22," he noted.
After a stellar run in 2021 that saw the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 clock gains of 20 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, global equity markets, including India, are gearing up to welcome 2022 on a cautious note. For one, new variants of the Covid -19 infection that make current vaccines less effective is one of the key risks worth flagging, analysts said. Inflation was also a risk for this asset class in 2021, although most market participants expect that the current elevated inflation levels will be transitory.
Since January 2021, the inflation rate in health has stood in the range of 6.08-8.44 per cent.
With the spectrum auction now delayed till at least next May, the expected 5G orders for telecom equipment have not been sealed, the companies point out. Surajeet Das Gupta reports.
The country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank on Saturday reported a 23 per cent jump in standalone net profit to Rs 10,055.20 crore for the March quarter, led by growth in loan demand across categories and lower provisioning as bad loans were trimmed. The bank's net profit during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal stood at Rs 8,186.51 crore. "After providing Rs 2,989.5 crore for taxation, the bank earned a net profit of Rs 10,055.20 crore, an increase of 22.8 per cent over the quarter ended March 31, 2021," HDFC Bank said in a regulatory filing.
The broadening of the market rally sends the signal that growth will be broad-based, observes Akash Prakash.
Providing services like broadband connectivity, cable TV, enterprise solutions, and payment wallets is the need of the hour for telcos, and a second wave of consolidation is upon the industry, a rating agency said on Tuesday. India Ratings and Research said the sector, which was battered following the aggressive entry of Reliance Jio, will continue showing signs of recovery amid conducive regulatory environment and maintained a "stable" outlook for the industry in FY22. The second round of consolidation (Consolidation 2.0) is kicking-in in the industry, which will bring a transformation in the business models of telecom companies, leading to the evolution of incumbents from the providers of traditional voice-only services to complete digital solutions for households, it said.
'The business continuity clause will mean the Tatas will have to keep running the airline for three years, and cannot exit the flying business.'
Despite Covid downturn, CEO salaries went up by an average of 19% in FY21.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
'It has the potential to add half a trillion dollars to the economy over the next five years.'
The government is expected to defer the mega initial public offering (IPO) of LIC to the next financial year as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has dampened fund managers' interest in the public issue, market experts said on Sunday. The government was looking to sell 5 per cent stake in Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) this month, which could have fetched over Rs 60,000 crore to the exchequer. The IPO would have helped meet the curtailed divestment target of Rs 78,000 crore this fiscal.
'India has entered an economic super-cycle driven by a housing cycle turnaround.'
