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The 2018 Rajasthan election sentiment meter

November 27, 2018 15:39 IST

Rajasthan will vote in a single-phase election on December 7.

In the recent past, the state has become notorious for voting the incumbent out of power. For sitting Bharatiya Janata Party Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, the battle, therefore, is tough.

Especially when most surveys are projecting a Congress victory in the state.

On the other hand, the opposition Congress may miss out on the benefits offered by anti-incumbency, owing to the internal leadership tussle in the party.

 

Former CM Ashok Gehlot and party leader Sachin Pilot both are projected as chief ministerial candidates in media reports and both are contesting elections.

They, however, deny reports of a rift and say they will accept whoever the party chooses to lead the new government.

Rediff Labs analysed the 2013 assembly election results to develop a Sentiment Meter for the 2018 electoral battle.

A mathematical model is used to calculate how seat distribution will be altered as sentiment/percentage of votes towards a contesting political party changes.

Based on the change, each constituency is marked with the winning party. A swing represents that the victory margin is close to the runner-up party.

Move the pointer on the Sentiment Meter (depending on who you think will get more votes) towards the political parties to see how the outcome is likely to change.

The below graph is based only on 2013 assembly elections data.

For more data driven journalism, check out Rediff Labs.