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The 2018 Chhattisgarh election sentiment meter

Last updated on: November 19, 2018 11:04 IST

The major players in the Chhattisgarh assembly election 2018, scheduled to be held in November, are the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress.

In the 2013 elections, the BJP successfull won a third term, under the leadership of Chief Minister Raman Singh, winning 49 of the 90 assembly seats. The Congress settled for 39.

 

This time, however, former chief minister Ajit Jogi's Janata Congress Chhattisgarh is a new player in the fray, which is fighting these elections in alliance with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party.

Moreover, CM Raman Singh is battling with anti-incumbency with major opinion polls showing a close fight between the BJP and the Congress. 

Rediff Labs analysed the 2013 assembly election results merged with 2014 Lok Sabha election results to develop a Sentiment Meter for the 2018 electoral battle in Chhattisgarh.

A mathematical model is used to calculate how seat distribution will be altered as sentiment/percentage of votes towards a contesting political party changes.

Based on the change, each constituency is marked with the winning party. A swing represents that the victory margin is close to the runner-up party.

Move the pointer on the Sentiment Meter (depending on who you think will get more votes) towards the political parties to see how the outcome is likely to change.

The below graph is based only on 2013 assembly elections data.

It shows a bigger share of seats for the Congress as the sentiment pointer is moved in favour of that party. 

For more data driven journalism, check out Rediff Labs.