Canada's Carney snatches victory from jaws of defeat, thanks to Trump

In a dramatic turn of events, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured victory in Canada’s federal election, overcoming earlier predictions of defeat.

The win, driven by a surge in nationalism sparked by US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade war and annexation threats, marked the Liberals’ fourth consecutive term.

While the Liberals were projected to capture more of Parliament’s 343 seats than Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party, it remained unclear whether they would achieve a majority or need support from smaller parties to govern.

Trump’s attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty, including his provocative suggestion that Canada become the 51st US state, shifted the election’s dynamics. His social media taunts, including false claims that the U.S. subsidizes Canada, infuriated Canadians, fueling early voting turnout of 7.3 million and prompting boycotts of American goods and travel.

“The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Carney warned, framing the election as a defense of Canadian independence. This narrative resonated, reversing the Liberals’ fortunes.

“We were dead and buried in December. Now we are going to form a government,” said former Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti.

The Conservatives, led by Poilievre, initially aimed to capitalize on frustration with rising food and housing costs under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. However, Trudeau’s resignation and Carney’s ascension as Liberal leader, combined with Poilievre’s Trump-like campaign style, alienated voters.

“Poilievre sounds like mini-Trump to me,” said Toronto voter Reid Warren, echoing a sentiment that Trump’s influence hurt the Conservatives. Historian Robert Bothwell noted Poilievre’s appeal to grievance mirrored Trump’s but backfired, suggesting, “The Liberals ought to pay [Trump].”

Despite the victory, Carney faces significant challenges.

Canada’s economy, heavily reliant on the US for over 75% of its exports, is threatened by Trump’s tariffs and push to relocate North American auto production. Carney has pledged to redirect counter-tariff revenue to support affected Canadian workers while maintaining dental care, cutting middle-class taxes, adjusting immigration levels, and boosting funding for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

The election, heavily influenced by foreign policy for the first time since the 1988 free trade debate, underscores the stakes. Amid a cost-of-living crisis and strained U.S. relations, Carney’s leadership will be tested as he navigates these economic and diplomatic hurdles.