An electoral survey conducted by CNN IBN/IBN7-Axis in Bihar has given a clear edge to the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Janata Dal-United-led ‘Mahagathbandhan’, riding home the assembly elections with 137 seats (+/-8 seats) and a 46 per cent vote share.
Break-up of seats
The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance+ is expected to win 95 seats (+/- 8 seats), garnering a 38 per cent per cent vote share.
The NDA’s main constituent, the BJP, is individually expected to win 82 seats with an error margin of 5 seats. The Lok Janjshakti Party of Ram Bilas Paswan is expected to get only two seats and vote share of 4 per cent.
Break-up of votes
Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha is expected to fare better winning eight seats with a vote share equal to the LJPs. The Rashtriya Lok Samta Party of Upendra Kushwaha may win three seats as well.
The vote share
The JD-U, led by incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is expected to win 69 seats with an error margin of 5 seats. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD may win 48 seats with an error margin of 2 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, is set to win 20 seats, according to the survey, with an error margin of one seat. In 2010, it won just 4 seats.