American voters prefer a Democrat in the White House by a wide 50 per cent to 37 per cent margin, a just-released poll shows.
But when choosing between Republican contender John McCain and either Democratic candidate, the results are a statistical tie, capturing the conflict felt by voters.
Releasing the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll result, the daily noted that rarely have the stars aligned so squarely against the party in power in elections for the White House as it has for Republicans.
Ultimately, voters choose a person for president, not a party, and McCain seems to give Republicans a fighting chance, it said.
Measures of the candidates' appeal in the poll help explain why Democrats nationally are deadlocked between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. While Clinton has an edge with voters on experience and leadership, Obama rates higher than ever on traits such as likeability that reflect a greater connection with voters, the poll shows.
"The compass points due north for the Democrats as the party of change," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who, with Republican Bill McInturff, conducts the Journal/NBC surveys. "But for each of the three presidential hopefuls, the compass settings are much less definitive," he added.
A couple of findings in the new poll, the Journal said, capture how conflicted Americans are. By a 13-point margin, 50 per cent to 37 per cent, registered voters say they would prefer a Democrat to be elected president.
When asked to choose specifically between McCain and either Democrat, the results in each case are a statistical tie, the poll shows.
Obama edges McCain by 47 per cent to 44 per cent, while Clinton beats the Republican by a near-identical 47 per cent to 45 per cent.
The poll, which surveyed 1,012 registered voters between March 7 and 10, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
In the Democrats' contest, Clinton leads Obama nationally among Democratic voters by just 47 per cent to 43 per cent. That is down from her 16-point, 53 per cent to 37 per cent lead in the previous Journal/NBC poll in January before Obama's February winning streak that she finally snapped with candidacy-saving victories March 4 in Ohio and Texas.
While voters say, though by a statistically insignificant margin, that either Democrat could beat McCain, Democratic voters by 10 points 48 per cent to 38 per cent say Obama would have the better chance than Clinton.
Chief among the strengths of the Republican nominee-in-waiting is his experience with national-security issues, as a naval aviator and longtime senator.
"Americans can visualise John McCain behind the desk in the Oval Office," said Hart. "The difficulty is where his policies are, and is he going to take the country where it wants to head".
Of 10 attributes measured in the poll, McCain scored highest for 'being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency'. Nearly two-thirds of voters agreed, up 12 points from December, when both parties' nominating races were getting under way.
His next-highest ratings, from 61 per cent, were for strong leadership and for readiness to be commander in chief.
Voters gave McCain the lowest marks on whether he shared their positions on issues (31 per cent said he does), for being inspirational (22 per cent) and for being likely to produce change in Washington (20 per cent).
In the first Journal/NBC poll since McCain clinched the nomination, a 52 per cent majority of Republicans say they would have preferred another nominee, a gauge, the Journal says, of how much bridge-building the reputed party maverick must do to unite his party.
But both pollsters caution against reading too much into that finding. Other findings show even dissatisfied Republicans would vote overwhelmingly for McCain against either Democrat, the paper added.
Yet, the Journal says, plenty in the poll underscores the hurdles ahead for McCain.
In an election in which most voters say they seek change, one in five says he could deliver it. Likewise, the senator who first emerged nationally as George W Bush's chief nemesis in the 2000 campaign now represents to many voters a continuation of the unpopular president's policies, especially toward the war in Iraq.
Three-quarters of voters say they want the next president to govern differently from Bush, the poll shows, yet just as many say McCain would 'closely' follow Bush's programme.
Further evidence that Bush will be a drag - voters by two-to one disapprove of his job performance generally, and his handling of the economy and Iraq, as they have for the past two years. The economy, not the war, remains the top issue for voters.
By 56 per cent to 30 per cent, voters say the economy and health-care issues, where they favour Democrats, are more important in deciding who should be president than terrorism and social issues, areas where Republicans are stronger.
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