'This system will be of immense help in agricultural planning, disaster management and water resources management,'
AI Monsoon Forecast Model
Climate change is making weather forecasting more complex, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday to launch the country's first artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled monsoon advance forecasting model that can predict its onset at the block level up to four weeks in advance.
The IMD also launched a pilot project developed by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) for high-resolution rainfall forecasting in Uttar Pradesh using advanced AI systems.
The pilot can generate rainfall forecasts at a spatial resolution of a 1 kilometre grid.
Key Points
- India Meteorological Department launched the country's first AI-enabled block-level monsoon forecasting system with four-week advance prediction capability.
- The new forecasting model currently covers 3,196 blocks across 15 states and one Union Territory focused on rainfed regions.
- The AI-driven systems integrate satellite datasets, Doppler radar inputs, rain gauges and numerical weather prediction models for improved accuracy.
- IMD said conditions are becoming favourable for southwest monsoon onset over parts of the Andaman Sea towards week's end.
Hyperlocal Rainfall Prediction
The launch comes at a time when the 2026 southwest monsoon is projected to be below normal across most parts of the country, though the IMD said the new models have no correlation with the seasonal forecast.
According to IMD, both systems aim to deliver hyperlocal, impact-based, and AI-driven weather services across the country.
The models were developed in consultation with the ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare, and their outputs will be shared with farmers through application programming interfaces developed by the ministry and through the Agri Stack platform.
Block-Level Weather Forecasting
"The block-level monsoon onset forecast model combines existing numerical weather prediction models with AI to generate probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday up to four weeks in advance, with a model error margin of around four days," Minister of State for Earth Sciences Dr Jitendra Singh said while launching the two models.
The forecasting system currently covers 3,196 blocks across 15 states and one Union Territory, largely concentrated in rainfed regions where monsoon onset plays a critical role in agriculture and water management. The coverage will gradually be expanded.
M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said the block-level monsoon advance forecasting system will base its assessment on the onset of a continuous five-day rainfall spell and the absence of prolonged dry spells over the subsequent 30 days.
"This system will be of immense help in agricultural planning, disaster management and water resources management," Dr Singh said.
UP Rainfall Pilot Project
On the UP pilot, he said the system will generate rainfall forecasts at 1 km spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance.
The system uses AI-driven downscaling techniques and integrates data from automatic rain gauges, automatic weather stations, Doppler weather radars, and satellite-based rainfall datasets.
Southwest Monsoon Update
In a related development, the IMD said conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week.
IMD said it will issue updates on its progress later this month.
In other parts, heatwave conditions are likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan during the next six to seven days, and over East Rajasthan, adjoining parts of Central India, Gujarat and Maharashtra during the next four to five days.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff
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