"We expect the Indian economy to have grown by 8.8 per cent in the September 2007 quarter. Although healthy, this growth is considerably lower than the 9.3 per cent growth in real gross domestic product clocked in the June 2007 quarter," the economic think-tank said.
The growth in September quarter is expected to be lower than that in the preceding two quarters, mainly on account of higher base and lower industrial growth, it said.
Industrial growth, measured according to the index of industrial production, dipped to 7.5 per cent in July 2007.
Although growth picked up in the following month to 10.7 per cent, CMIE expects the average industrial growth for the September 2007 quarter to be 8.7 per cent, much lower than the 10.4-11.3 per cent clocked in the preceding six quarters.
According to latest data released by the government on Monday, industrial growth in September stood at only 6.4 per cent compared to 12 per cent in the same month last year. This brings the average industrial growth during July-September quarter even lower than CMIE estimates at 8.2 per cent.
"The quarterly financial data of corporate India comes as strong support to our view. The early companies in the manufacturing sector to declare their results for September 2007 quarter, recorded 9.1 per cent growth in aggregate revenues, this being the lowest quarterly sales growth in at least the last three years," it said.
CMIE expected the growth in the service sector to continue unabated with banking, aviation, railways and transportation sectors faring well in the September quarter.
The banking sector continued to reap the benefits of the high interest rate regime and healthy demand for credit. It reported a robust 37.7 per cent rise in income in September 2007 quarter, the CMIE report said.
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