The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Tuesday said industrial production growth is likely to decline in the second half of the current fiscal, while the first advanced estimate of kharif crop showed a 10 per cent drop in food production.
Though industrial growth in the first half has been robust, it was quite possible that the production of consumer durables would decline in the second half of 2002-03 as the kharif crop was a disaster of the country and rabi crop prospects did not look very promising, CMIE said in its monthly report in Mumbai.
The index of industrial production grew by 5.2 per cent in April-September period due to private consumption of select durables and government demand for basic goods, it said.
On the farm production front, CMIE said advance estimates issued by the agriculture ministry indicate that oilseed crop output was down 25 per cent.
"The sugarcane crop was down by five per cent and cotton by 22 per cent compared to the output in the preceding season. This is worst than our estimates," CMIE said.
The central government's tax collection grew by 20 per cent in October and even if we assume that they will grow at a similar pace in remaining months, collections will be short of budgeted accounts, it said.
The targets for divestment are unlikely to be met and if there are no special dividends from cash rich public sector units, it is very likely that the gross fiscal deficit is likely to overshoot the budgeted estimates, it added.
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