The exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar may delay the economy's rise to become the fourth-largest.
The size of India's economy is officially expected to be at Rs 357.13 trillion, slightly higher than the Rs 356.98 trillion assumed in the Budget for 2025-2026 (FY26).
However, the exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar may delay the economy's rise to become the fourth-largest, unlike earlier expectations.
India still fastest-growing economy
While India has maintained its fastest-growing tag in FY26, China is a distant second in terms of economic growth.
Fight for 4th place
In dollars, India's GDP was projected at $4.09 trn in FY26, based on advance estimates.
Japan's reached $3.3 trn in the first nine months of 2025 and could have exceeded $4.3 trn in Q4.
The IMF initially forecast India overtaking Japan in 2025, but later revised estimates to $4.12 trn for India (FY26) versus $4.28 trn for Japan.
Peer comparison
The rupee depreciated the most versus the dollar among the currencies of top economies.
Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff
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