The economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic Research on Thursday revised downward marginally India's economic growth to 6.62 per cent due to deceleration in farm output in 2004 even as fiscal deficit was slated to shrink to 4.52 per cent.
However, the downward revision by 0.1 per cent from the post-budget forecast comes amidst healthy growth projections in industrial and services sectors, the NCAER said in its latest report.
It said the fiscal deficit was expected to be 4.52 per cent from its post-budget estimate of 4.65 per cent mainly due to higher price growth and buoyancy in the industrial sector.
Buoyed by manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply, and services, the real GDP in the first quarter of this fiscal grew at a robust rate of 7.4 per cent, it said, adding that the industrial and services sectors are expected to tick 7.15 per cent and 8.83 per cent growth respectively in 2004.
Though the manufacturing sector ticked 8 per cent growth in April-June 2004-05, NCAER said industrial recovery "may be hurt by the spiralling crude prices which has crossed $53 per barrel".
The NCAER said the agricultural sector would grow by one per cent since the monsoon has not been satisfactory and therefore the farm prices are slated to rise by four per cent.
"The monsoon this year arrived in India a week before its scheduled arrival and its progress was good till the last week of June, but in July it weakened to revive only in August. However, enough damage had been done by then," it said.
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