'Could the Chinese have taken a leaf out of our book?' 'That their unprecedented build-up is their attempt at coercive diplomacy with India?' 'And if so, what is it that they could be expecting as a quid pro quo?' asks Shekhar Gupta.

'There is a compulsion to look hard, decisive, and risk-taking; start something; and then conclude it in a way you can claim victory.' 'That is not such an easy option against China,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

When BJP leaders, including Mr Modi's number two, Amit Shah, use the pandemic to launch an assault on state governments run by opposition parties, or to topple them, they are exploiting a grave crisis in cynical political self-interest, notes Shekhar Gupta.

We should have anticipated it on August 5 last year, when we made the big changes in J&K. Amit Shah left nothing to chance when he told Parliament that 'we will bring back Aksai Chin even at the cost of our lives'. 'Then, there were the new maps, objections to the CPEC going through Indian territory, the weather reports.' A broad territorial status quo had existed in Ladakh-Aksai Chin since 1962. India made its intention to change this public, notes Shekhar Gupta.

'The handling of the pandemic, under this totally constitutional and legal three-level dictatorship, has begun to show its downside,' observes Shekhar Gupta.

'You can't make the poor rich overnight.' 'Nor can you fly millions in planes.' 'But remember that word: Empathy.' 'Who in the BJP is speaking in that language to these millions?' 'Someone putting an arm of understanding, warmth, comfort around them?', asks Shekhar Gupta.

'Flypasts, bands, helicopters dropping flowers over hospitals treating coronavirus patients are cute ideas for an Akshay Kumar film.' 'But when lakhs of workers at the lowest rung of the employment ladder would still be walking back home, this is the true 2020 equivalent of 'let them eat cake,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

Four decades of federal evolution made India more secure, but coronavirus is reversing that. Modi's central government has tasted power again and is unlikely to give it up, notes Shekhar Gupta.

'Our drains are not filled with bodies, our hospitals not run out of beds.' 'That good news, or absence of expected bad news, is the truth that so many in the international community, and also within India, seem unable to handle,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

Is it sustainable?' 'Or is it like an overdose of a medicine that saves your life in the short run but kills you through long-lasting side-effects?' asks Shekhar Gupta.

'He has a gift none of his eight predecessors, from Manmohan Singh to Rajiv Gandhi, had: Being able to speak directly and convincingly to a large enough section of Indians who will take his word for gospel,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

'A very vast majority of us will catch it at some point, about 8 out of 10 won't feel much worse than a common cold's nuisance, if at all, but some will die.' 'A very, very vast majority, at least about 98 per cent of those infected, if not more, under any circumstances, will live through it,' observes Shekhar Gupta.

Coronavirus is the biggest story of our lives and a billion plus people expect us to be around, watching, reporting, editing, recording this for posterity and blowing the whistle to draw attention to injustices and State failures, notes Shekhar Gupta.

Delhi was just one riot. Add Bengal, Assam, Uttar Pradesh and you can count a few scores dead. It could, regrettably, be just the beginning of a very long, dark phase for India, notes Shekhar Gupta.

'Why does Mr Modi only attack Nehru from the Dynasty?' 'At one level, it is pure politics,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

In the mid-1980s, India and the US struggled to arrive at sufficient confidence for Washington to even sell a supercomputer to India for monsoon prospecting. Now, the most sensitive military technologies, data, and intelligence resources are being shared. This would not have happened without that one, big deal that changed the fundamentals of India-US relations, notes Shekhar Gupta.

Amit Shah now enters an unfamiliar and interesting phase of his political career. His success or failure will henceforth be assessed based on his performance as a key minister, points out Shekhar Gupta.

'The global corporates are concerned: You used to have policy predictability, now it's a yo-yo.' 'New taxes and regulations pop up, some disappear soon, many linger.' 'And now the return of old Socialist fixations such as import-substitution, swadeshi, small-trader mercantilist ideology.' 'On top of all that, your ministers admonish us,' points out Shekhar Gupta.

'The BJP has shown signs lately of returning to its trader mindset.' 'Several strong emotions get meshed in this: Nationalism, protectionism, mercantilism, and arrogance,' points out Shekhar Gupta.

'Brand Kejriwal-AAP have a long way to go even if they win another Delhi election...'
'It is a force nobody can ignore, not even Mr Modi, because it will keep punching above its weight,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

'The economy is in a free fall.'
'And it's been declining for so long, so consistently, that the promise of growth and better days now looks a fantasy.' 'A mid-1970s kind of pessimism, even hopelessness, is growing among the young.' 'This isn't what Mr Modi promised them.' 'Their aspirations and needs are clear and present, and not being fulfilled,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

'No country or society ever prospered or remained secure by marginalising more than one-sixth of its own,' warns Shekhar Gupta.

'Sounds familiar? Barring inflation, much else looks, sounds, and feels more than a bit like 1974.' 'A phenomenally popular leader, with a party of unquestioning followers, a broken Opposition, a nationalist high and an economy in free fall, crippling joblessness,' recalls Shekhar Gupta.

'Not afraid to look Muslim, not shy of flaunting her nationalism.' 'With a willingness to fight carrying the Constitution, the Flag, the Anthem, Ambedkar, Gandhi and the chant of 'Hindustan Zindabad',' notes Shekhar Gupta.

'India serves itself poorly with its latter-day discovery of Pakistan as an instrument in domestic politics,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

The BJP knows the CAA, combined with a fresh nationwide NRC process, is an idea that's dead on arrival. Where it lives on is as a divisive, polarising instrument as its rivals have to take a position against it and thereby be exposed to the charge of 'Muslim appeasement' again, points out Shekhar Gupta.

'Since the rise of the Modi-Shah paradigm, the BJP has followed a simple formula.' 'Sweep the Hindi heartland and the two big Western states, and you can rule India with a majority by just adding some little bits on the platter from here and there,' points out Shekhar Gupta.

It is bound to fail like the earlier ones, again causing Pakistan enormously more damage than to India, points out Shekhar Gupta.

'You can presume that Modi and his party will now focus on the economy.' 'But then, there is the Jharkhand election next month, Delhi soon thereafter and so on.' 'And this isn't a political leadership that takes even a panchayat election lightly,' notes Shekhar Gupta.

'The Nagas want a flag of their own, to share the Kohima skyline with the national tricolour.' 'The the government says you can have a flag for cultural and ethnic occasions.' 'The Nagas say that will be a bit like an NGO having its own flag,' argues Shekhar Gupta.

The winds of nationalism laden with religion will now yield to those of concern over the stalled economy, unemployment, and a general malaise and unhappiness, predicts Shekhar Gupta.

'Savarkar was the closest the RSS had to a freedom movement icon, however flawed.' 'Indira Gandhi wasn't going to gift him to them.' 'And a non-career politician like Dr Singh understands it.' 'It is just that his party never listened to him,' says Shekhar Gupta.

'By holding forth on Swadeshi economics, Bhagwat is showing his intent to fight back,' says Shekhar Gupta.

'If you ask India's finest business leaders, they now tell you -- in whispers, of course -- that the mood has never been so glum after 1991,' says Shekhar Gupta.

'The Kashmir issue has become internationalised after nearly half a century.' 'India, not Pakistan, has done so pro-actively,' says Shekhar Gupta.

'The one thing India has over these two States, whose toughness awes us, is our ability to embrace diversity with ease. 'The way ahead lies in learning from Vajpayee's method, not in Xi Jinping's,' says Shekhar Gupta.

'At this point, neither the army or the IAF has that immediate, punitive deterrent power against Pakistan.' 'Forget a three-week war; on the LoC, where the action is, Pakistan has until now fielded better infantry weapons, body armour, sniper rifles, and matching artillery' points out Shekhar Gupta.

'Mr Modi may have the aura of an irresistible conquistador now, but he is human. He isn't an 'avatar,' argues Shekhar Gupta.

'That Modi and the BJP can continue to treat the rising and expanding middle class this way shows that they have gamed its mind quite perfectly,' argues Shekhar Gupta.

'The Modi Model we see now is still the old Gujarat Model.' 'But with an acknowledgement that governing India is more challenging than governing Gujarat,' notes Shekhar Gupta.