India had better be prepared. Munir could be back at our throats soon, even within the next 12 months, warns Shekhar Gupta.
The reality is that far from being friendless, India is better positioned in the world than at any point post-Cold War, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
The high point of the 19 Shastri months was the 22-day war that he fought against great odds and won in principle, even if military historians often call it a stalemate. Pakistan saw a great opportunity to conquer Kashmir and lost. It was the last time they had the relative strength militarily and diplomatically to take Kashmir. Shastri's resolve buried that dream forever, points out Shekhar Gupta.
'Will this near-war, India's strongest military response so far, buy India another seven years of deterrence?' asks Shekhar Gupta.
The launch of the first-ever direct train service from Delhi to Kashmir would be a big turning point in the Valley's mood and its integration with India. He had to thwart it at any cost, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
In the India-Pakistan situations, off-ramps have come either through foreign mediation (after months of kinetic warfare over Kargil, and a long stand-off with Op Parakram) or when a situation made it possible for both sides to claim a win, explains Shekhar Gupta.
'You can be sure that the Pakistanis knew when the Indian Air Force aircraft took off, which type these were, and what their likely targets were.' 'The question was: How would they determine that the IAF wanted to fire, and when to bounce them?', notes Shekhar Gupta.
The ISI strategy has been to use its proxies to target Hindus in India. They want an outrage and counter-targeting of India's minorities. Further, even the whiff of it restores the Pakistan army's popularity, especially when it's in the dumps, like now, points out Shekhar Gupta.
India needs another shot of difficult reform, of the kind only possible at gunpoint. Mr Trump holds that gun to our heads now. A drastic reduction in tariff protection, other elements of sarkari wet-nursing will force entrepreneurial India to become competitive again, argues Shekhar Gupta.
Leaders who built and manage these incredible global companies cannot be tyrants, slave-drivers, or idiots. Essentially what they are saying falls under the definition of rallying the troops, inspirational talk, like the usual coach-speak with the team before a match, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
From bhikshus of Ashokan 3rd century BC and medieval Sufis to Oxfam, Omidyar and Soros now, non-State actors have any real power only when they work in conjunction with a real State, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
'If the BJP detoxifies the nuclear liability law, it will bring economic, environmental and, most of all, strategic benefits.' 'Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that this Budget promise is met soon -- ideally, before Mr Modi heads to his first meeting with Trump 2.0,' observes Shekhar Gupta.
Many were hoping that with Vajpayee's NDA gone, there would be a return to the Congress normal. Nobody was prepared for the opposite. Sonia Gandhi was sceptical. This became the only issue over which Manmohan Singh took on his party bosses and risked his government. Politically, it was riskier than the 1991 reform, recalls Shekhar Gupta.
No single individual, institution, or action is to blame for this. The BJP is responding in kind -- definitely not without checking with its government. And they wait for Mr Trump, notes Shekhar Gupta.
Even a whiff of an incident like the violent 1989 shirt-ripping attack on Krishnamachari Srikkanth by a Karachi spectator would be ruinous. It would set back the ties further, derail an ongoing tournament, and harden Indian attitudes on playing Pakistan anywhere at all, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
Everybody talks of China as the real threat, but we aren't even building a decisive capability against Pakistan, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
The statements the separatists make, the abominable tableaux at their parades, the slogans, posters, and selfies with assault rifles are not India's problem. If they are a nuisance, it should bother their host countries, because they are armed and have their own underworld with deadly gang rivalries. Significantly, none of this happens in the US -- only in snowflaky Canada, points out Shekhar Gupta.
BIf you know this BJP, it will now go forward to Jharkhand and Maharashtra as if June 2024 never happened, notes Shekhar Gupta.
They try to hide behind the smokescreen that these are works of fiction inspired by real events. So, you can pick and choose from facts and fictionalise to push the right triggers with your audience or appease the powers that be, observes Shekhar Gupta.
It's intriguing that the prime minister now wants his American partner to help protect the Hindu minority in Bangladesh. That's conceding to the Americans a pre-eminence India has always contested, resented and feared, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
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