Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
Domestic institutional investors, on the other hand, made a net investment of Rs 1.13 trillion during this period.
Foreign brokerages have started to cut their year-end targets for the Nifty 50 index amid the ongoing West Asia conflict.
The BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 declined around 4.5 per cent each since the start of the West Asia conflict.
A fall in the Nifty 50 to around 19,000 is not impossible, but that would likely require nuclear options to be exercised.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
Shares of electric vehicle (EV) maker Ola Electric Mobility fell nearly 7 per cent to a fresh low on Monday after its revenue growth in the third quarter (October-December/Q3) of 2025-26 (FY26) slowed, with analysts warning that any turnaround could be prolonged.
Jefferies has downgraded Indian information technology (IT) companies Infosys, HCLTech, and Mphasis to "hold"; LTI MindTree, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Hexaware to "underperform", citing artificial intelligence (AI)-related concerns. Coforge, Sagility and IKS, however, still remain its top picks.
Fears around artificial intelligence (AI) sparked a global selloff in information technology (IT) stocks, dragging down domestic software shares and prompting the heaviest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows since the second half of July 2025.
Stocks of fast-moving consumer goods companies have taken it on the chin in calendar year 2026 (CY26) with the Nifty FMCG index falling over 6 per cent compared to the Nifty 50 dipping 0.8 per cent. Nifty FMCG is one of the worst-performing sectors on the NSE in CY26.
The bull-market in gold is not yet over and prices can rise to $6,200 an ounce (oz) by mid-2026, up nearly 25 per cent from current levels, according to UBS.
'Given that India underperformed emerging markets by 28 per cent in 2025, the worst performance in over 30 years, the timing of the sharp STT hike could have been better.'
'When markets go into a budget with excessive optimism, the risk of disappointment is higher.'
'A breakout above 158,000 to 160,000 could trigger the next leg higher toward 165,000 to 170,000.'
Worries about global politics and trade are pulling the Nifty 50 down. Experts say the market could drop further low.
Over 50 per cent, or 660 stocks, from the BSE 1000 index recorded negative returns during CY25.
Domestic mutual funds have infused the highest ever -- Rs 4.84 trillion -- this year amid strong inflows via SIPs.
Investing in gold trumped most other asset classes in terms of compounded annualised returns over the long term, suggests a report by FundsIndia.
The Nifty 50 index could rise around 24 per cent from current levels to 32,032 by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, Kotak Securities said in a recent note. "We value Nifty at a 10 per cent premium (at 22x) to the 10-year average price-to-earnings of 20x on 2027-28 estimated (E) earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 1,456, and arrive at a December 2026 Nifty target of 32,032," the analysts wrote.
Unless the primary market momentum slows, smallcap stocks will stay subdued.
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